One can get COVID after vaccine

[biobook]

In clinical trials and in real life (Israel), vaccines have been shown to prevent most COVID disease, but they're not 100% effective. 

A couple of cases in the news recently - anecdotally, at least, family said these people had been fully vaccinated, yet died of COVID.
https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/nytimes/obituary.aspx?n=phyllis-meltzer&pid=198598379&fhid=21752
https://www.timesofisrael.com/alber-elbaz-top-israeli-fashion-icon-and-ex-lanvin-director-dies-of-covid/

As at the onset of the pandemic, those most likely to get sick seem to be the elderly, obese, perhaps other underlying conditions.

Numbers from the CDC as of May 17, 2021:  Of the 123 million people who've been vaccinated, almost 300 have died of COVID, most of those elderly.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

So the risk of a fully-vaccinated person getting a serious case of COVID and dying of it are very very low, but not zero.  Some proposed explanations are that the vaccine may have been improperly stored or diluted, the person's immune response may have been weak, or they were exposed to a variant of the virus or to an especially high dose of it.
https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2021/coronavirus-after-vaccination.html

We have reason to expect that COVID cases and deaths will rapidly decline as more people get vaccinated.  But at the same time, if we hear that someone has become ill with COVID or R'L died of it, we shouldn't automatically assume that they were not vaccinated.

ETA: changed title, seemed misleading...

[Euclid]

In clinical trials and in real life (Israel), vaccines have been shown to prevent most COVID disease, but they're not 100% effective. 

A couple of cases in the news recently - anecdotally, at least, family said these people had been fully vaccinated, yet died of COVID.
https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/nytimes/obituary.aspx?n=phyllis-meltzer&pid=198598379&fhid=21752
https://www.timesofisrael.com/alber-elbaz-top-israeli-fashion-icon-and-ex-lanvin-director-dies-of-covid/

As at the onset of the pandemic, those most likely to get sick seem to be the elderly, obese, perhaps other underlying conditions.

Numbers from the CDC as of May 17, 2021:  Of the 123 million people who've been vaccinated, almost 300 have died of COVID, most of those elderly.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

So the risk of a fully-vaccinated person getting a serious case of COVID and dying of it are very very low, but not zero.  Some proposed explanations are that the vaccine may have been improperly stored or diluted, the person's immune response may have been weak, or they were exposed to a variant of the virus or to an especially high dose of it.
https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2021/coronavirus-after-vaccination.html

We have reason to expect that COVID cases and deaths will rapidly decline as more people get vaccinated.  But at the same time, if we hear that someone has become ill with COVID or R'L died of it, we shouldn't automatically assume that they were not vaccinated.

Is this a reason to get an antibody test after being vaccinated to ensure that it worked properly?

[biobook]

Is this a reason to get an antibody test after being vaccinated to ensure that it worked properly?

No.  I should add that another proposed mechanism is that all parts of the immune system might not be optimally activated, so it's possible that antibodies would be high, but the person would still get covid because of poorly functioning T cells.  This is all theoretical at this point, since there haven't been enough cases to get a full picture of what's going on.

[ExGingi]

No.  I should add that another proposed mechanism is that all parts of the immune system might not be optimally activated, so it's possible that antibodies would be high, but the person would still get covid because of poorly functioning T cells.  This is all theoretical at this point, since there haven't been enough cases to get a full picture of what's going on.

Is there any way to check the T cells?

[biobook]

Is there any way to check the T cells?

I think the tests have been developed just for lab research, not for clinical use.

But what's needed at this point is not for millions of people to go check their antibodies and T cells, but rather for scientists and doctors to examine more closely those very few people who do get documented cases of COVID after vaccination.  Did they produce antibodies?  What were their T cell levels?  What variant were they infected with?  Was there a cluster of cases (suggesting it might relate to storage/dilution of that batch of vaccine)? 

Much more efficient to study a small sample first, and get a better idea of why these breakthrough cases occur.

[AsherO]

The other factor here is how prevalent COVID is in the area of the vaccinated individual. If they’re in a country where there are almost no reported cases of COVID then they’re at much less risk of contracting COVID compared to someone who is fully vaccinated and living in a city with hundreds of weekly cases being reported.

As vaccination rates go up (hoping they do, which in the US is slowly becoming a dream), then the risk of a vaccinated person getting infected goes down.

[S209]

But at the same time, if we hear that someone has become ill with COVID or R'L died of it, we shouldn't automatically assume that they were not vaccinated.

I think it’s still safe to assume they were not vaccinated unless otherwise known. The odds of dying  of COVID while fully vaccinated are absolutely minuscule.

[avromie7]

In clinical trials and in real life (Israel), vaccines have been shown to prevent most COVID disease, but they're not 100% effective. 

A couple of cases in the news recently - anecdotally, at least, family said these people had been fully vaccinated, yet died of COVID.
https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/nytimes/obituary.aspx?n=phyllis-meltzer&pid=198598379&fhid=21752
https://www.timesofisrael.com/alber-elbaz-top-israeli-fashion-icon-and-ex-lanvin-director-dies-of-covid/

As at the onset of the pandemic, those most likely to get sick seem to be the elderly, obese, perhaps other underlying conditions.

Numbers from the CDC as of May 17, 2021:  Of the 123 million people who've been vaccinated, almost 300 have died of COVID, most of those elderly.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

So the risk of a fully-vaccinated person getting a serious case of COVID and dying of it are very very low, but not zero.  Some proposed explanations are that the vaccine may have been improperly stored or diluted, the person's immune response may have been weak, or they were exposed to a variant of the virus or to an especially high dose of it.
https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2021/coronavirus-after-vaccination.html

We have reason to expect that COVID cases and deaths will rapidly decline as more people get vaccinated.  But at the same time, if we hear that someone has become ill with COVID or R'L died of it, we shouldn't automatically assume that they were not vaccinated.

ETA: changed title, seemed misleading...

Do we know if any of these people got COVID before they were fully vaccinated?

[biobook]

The other factor here is how prevalent COVID is in the area of the vaccinated individual. If they’re in a country where there are almost no reported cases of COVID then they’re at much less risk of contracting COVID compared to someone who is fully vaccinated and living in a city with hundreds of weekly cases being reported.

As vaccination rates go up (hoping they do, which in the US is slowly becoming a dream), then the risk of a vaccinated person getting infected goes down.

Right.  Which is why my attempt to convince my neighbors to vax is not completely because I am such a caring, altruistic person.  I admit that I quite selfishly prefer to live in a neighborhood where COVID is not so prevalent.

[ExGingi]

Right.  Which is why my attempt to convince my neighbors to vax is not completely because I am such a caring, altruistic person.  I admit that I quite selfishly prefer to live in a neighborhood where COVID is not so prevalent.

There are a few of those in Brooklyn where COVID is not so prevalent mostly regardless of vaccination.

[biobook]

I think it’s still safe to assume they were not vaccinated unless otherwise known. The odds of dying  of COVID while fully vaccinated are absolutely minuscule.

The odds of dying of COVID post-vax were initially calculated based on 20,000 people who were followed for 2-3 months, and the odds were zero.  After millions were vaccinated, the odds went up a bit.  After we're followed for a longer time, they may go up even further. 

I think it's "safe" to assume new COVID patients today probably weren't vaccinated, if we're discussing disease in a large population.
But if we're talking about a particular individual, I think we should wait for more definitive information before making that assumption, given that the chance that they were vaccinated is >0.

[S209]

But if we're talking about a particular individual, I think we should wait for more definitive information before making that assumption, given that the chance that they were vaccinated is >0.

Of the current 600 deaths each day, it’s very likely that 595 or more are unvaccinated. Therefore, when I hear of a particular person who died of COVID, I can reasonably assume (with ~99% certainty) that that person was not fully vaccinated. My bar for assumptions is above 0%- or else I’d be certain, not assuming. I’m not saying we can be absolutely certain, but we can reasonably assume it to be true until otherwise shown.

[biobook]

Do we know if any of these people got COVID before they were fully vaccinated?

Do you mean if they got COVID last year, that is, is this a second infection?  I don't see that they are asking for that kind of medical history, so I don't think we know that.

Do you mean if the people got COVID while partially vaccinated?  They do seem to be trying to eliminate these cases.  The data they're analyzing is reported by Depts of Health in each state, and they're asking them to report cases of positive COVID tests that appear more than 14 days after complete vaccination, but to exclude cases in which the patient had a positive COVID test <45 days before that.  So that would seem to eliminate those who got infected in the period between the two Pfizer/Moderna shots.

[biobook]

Of the current 600 deaths each day, it’s very likely that 595 or more are unvaccinated. Therefore, when I hear of a particular person who died of COVID, I can reasonably assume (with ~99% certainty) that that person was not fully vaccinated. My bar for assumptions is above 0%- or else I’d be certain, not assuming. I’m not saying we can be absolutely certain, but we can reasonably assume it to be true until otherwise shown.

I'm not disagreeing with your math, or your statistics, or your assumptions.  But there's a difference between thinking something is very likely to be true, and stating that it's true on a public forum. 

[AsherO]

The data they're analyzing is reported by Depts of Health in each state, and they're asking them to report cases of positive COVID tests that appear more than 14 days after complete vaccination, but to exclude cases in which the patient had a positive COVID test <45 days before that.  So that would seem to eliminate those who got infected in the period between the two Pfizer/Moderna shots.

If it was close to 45 days prior then it might very well be (just) before the first dose, and from some charts shared earlier out of Israel the Pfizer vaccine seems to only start working its Magic around 14 days after the first dose.

[S209]

I'm not disagreeing with your math, or your statistics, or your assumptions.  But there's a difference between thinking something is very likely to be true, and stating that it's true on a public forum.

True.

[avromie7]

Do you mean if they got COVID last year, that is, is this a second infection?  I don't see that they are asking for that kind of medical history, so I don't think we know that.

Do you mean if the people got COVID while partially vaccinated?  They do seem to be trying to eliminate these cases.  The data they're analyzing is reported by Depts of Health in each state, and they're asking them to report cases of positive COVID tests that appear more than 14 days after complete vaccination, but to exclude cases in which the patient had a positive COVID test <45 days before that.  So that would seem to eliminate those who got infected in the period between the two Pfizer/Moderna shots.

I was asking about the latter.

Another important question, how many of these were immunocompromised?

[ckmk47]

I think it’s still safe to assume they were not vaccinated unless otherwise known. The odds of dying  of COVID while fully vaccinated are absolutely minuscule.

The manufacturers of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines say they are 95% effective.  Israel found the Pfizer even more effective than that.
But that means that out of 100 people fully vaccinated, 2-5 people will still catch covid.
Pfizer and Israel found that very few of those became ill and only a miniscule number died.
But NOT zero.

[S209]

The manufacturers of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines say they are 95% effective.  Israel found the Pfizer even more effective than that.
But that means that out of 100 people fully vaccinated, 2-5 people will still catch covid.
Pfizer and Israel found that very few of those became ill and only a miniscule number died.
But NOT zero.

I think it’s still safe to assume they were not vaccinated unless otherwise known. The odds of dying  of COVID while fully vaccinated are absolutely minuscule.

[aygart]

The manufacturers of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines say they are 95% effective.  Israel found the Pfizer even more effective than that.
But that means that out of 100 people fully vaccinated, 2-5 people will still catch covid.
Pfizer and Israel found that very few of those became ill and only a miniscule number died.
But NOT zero.

You are not understanding how 95% effective works. Your number of 5 people catching it only makes sense if when unvaccinated 100 out of 100 would have caught it.