Author Topic: COVID fatality estimates  (Read 1622 times)

Online jye

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« Last Edit: January 03, 2023, 12:17:04 PM by jj1000 »

Offline aygart

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Feelings don't care about your facts

Online jye

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Re: Initial CDC fatality estimates were about 100 times the actual number
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2023, 09:41:02 AM »
Where are you seeing this in that study?

“Across 31 systematically identified national seroprevalence studies in the pre-vaccination era, the median infection fatality rate of COVID-19 was estimated to be 0.034% for people aged 0–59 years people”

“World health officials said Tuesday the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally“

Offline Lurker

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Re: Initial CDC fatality estimates were about 100 times the actual number
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2023, 09:48:23 AM »
CDC estimated the fatality rate to be 3.4% of all reported cases as of the end of Feb 2020. They didn't estimate that Covid would kill 3.4% of people who would get Covid over the next year.
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Re: Initial CDC fatality estimates were about 100 times the actual number
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2023, 10:23:33 AM »
CDC estimated the fatality rate to be 3.4% of all reported cases as of the end of Feb 2020. They didn't estimate that Covid would kill 3.4% of people who would get Covid over the next year.
True. Would have to look back and see if they were predicting a similar rate going forward.

Offline S209

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Re: Initial CDC fatality estimates were about 100 times the actual number
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2023, 11:07:24 AM »
True. Would have to look back and see if they were predicting a similar rate going forward.
You’re missing the distinction: they were estimating the case fatality rate (CFR) while this study is assessing the infection fatality rate (IFR).

The IFR was estimated at somewhere around .2% back in 2020, with the great majority of deaths occurring in those 65+. This study appears to confirm those early estimates.

Early CFR estimates were assumed to be high for several reasons, including scarcity of testing, fear of going out to get tested, and poor recognition of symptoms.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2023, 11:23:07 AM by S209 »
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline dm123

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Offline Alexsei

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Re: Initial CDC fatality estimates were about 100 times the actual number
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2023, 11:25:47 AM »
Where is @CountValentine ?
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Offline Dan

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Re: Initial CDC fatality estimates were about 100 times the actual number
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2023, 11:36:31 AM »
You’re missing the distinction: they were estimating the case fatality rate (CFR) while this study is assessing the infection fatality rate (IFR).

The IFR was estimated at somewhere around .2% back in 2020, with the great majority of deaths occurring in those 65+. This study appears to confirm those early estimates.

Early CFR estimates were assumed to be high for several reasons, including scarcity of testing, fear of going out to get tested, and poor recognition of symptoms.
+1.
Some of my old roundups and comments discussed the IFRs. They were always very very low for young people.
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Offline S209

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Re: Initial CDC fatality estimates were about 100 times the actual number
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2023, 11:42:24 AM »
The main thing you can glean from this is that it confirms what we knew: COVID is alarmingly dangerous for those who are high risk.
Quote from: YitzyS
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Offline Yehuda57

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Re: Initial CDC fatality estimates were about 100 times the actual number
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2023, 12:10:31 PM »
Can we get an updated headline for this thread?

ETA: Thanks!
« Last Edit: January 03, 2023, 12:58:35 PM by Yehuda57 »

Online jye

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Re: COVID fatality estimates
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2023, 07:28:16 PM »
Thanks. Better.