A new poll from Fairleigh Dickenson University has Murphy's approval rating at 50 percent. Previous polls released last month had him at 57 and then 55 percent approval. More importantly, last months polls spoke to all residents, while the new poll only talking to registered voters.
No, I don't think that this spells doom for Governor Murphy. But I think his footing is not nearly as secure as people assume. Going for him is the fact that New Jersey is becoming more Democrat, and there are more than a million more registered Democrats than Republicans in this 9+ million people state. Also going for him is the fact that his opponent has a really hard name to pronounce, which may seem trivial, but I think it's a tremendous factor. It's hard to get excited about someone who's name is so hard to figure out. (BTW, it's Ciattarelli, with the first letters sounding like 'chi' as in 'chicken')
But there are a number of factors going against him. Ciattarelli is a very viable candidate. He served 8 years on Town Council, 8 years as county freeholder, and 8 years in the NJ Assembly (IIRC). I have no idea if he'll be good to Jews, but as a candidate in a statewide election, he's really impressive to the general public, and he is a smooth talker with the air of respect. He is also backed by the establishment, and was the only non-incumbent candidate in 100 years to get the party-line support in all NJ counties.
Another point: While New Jersey is such a Democrat state, and has not elected a Republican senator in about 50 years, the state often elects Republican governors, and Republicans won 6 of the last 10 gubernatorial elections. I think this is because people have certain expectations from governors, and they will kick them out if they don't like the job they are doing. I don't know if Murphy is in that range yet, but if his approval numbers tank any more, he should get worried.
