Author Topic: NJ State Politics Master Thread  (Read 11636 times)

Offline EJB

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #120 on: October 27, 2021, 02:31:37 PM »
Also the key is the gap only slightly narrowed with Monmouth. They've used consistent methodology so this is a good indication that Jack hasn't made a needed massive 9th inning surge.

Online aygart

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Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yesitsme

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #122 on: October 27, 2021, 09:17:47 PM »
["-"]

Online aygart

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #123 on: October 27, 2021, 10:35:20 PM »
So what is the system to make it easy to request?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yesitsme

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #124 on: October 28, 2021, 12:41:27 AM »
So what is the system to make it easy to request?
like asking a shabbos guy to turn on the light, hinting should be enough
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Online YitzyS

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #125 on: October 28, 2021, 08:18:36 AM »
"My feeling is that the race is closer than 11 points, and a lot of Democrats — and virtually every Republican — I’ve talked to feels the same way."

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/newjerseyplaybook
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Online aygart

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #126 on: October 28, 2021, 08:37:16 AM »
"My feeling is that the race is closer than 11 points, and a lot of Democrats — and virtually every Republican — I’ve talked to feels the same way."

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/newjerseyplaybook

"Feelings don't care about your facts"
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #127 on: October 28, 2021, 08:44:23 AM »
"Feelings don't care about your facts"

Rest of the quote
“ Around 7 points seems to be the average I hear from Democrats. But that’s a gut feeling. Polls — even by the best pollsters — sometimes miss the mark. But they’re also the only objective data we have on how the race looks. And that’s worth a lot more than my hunch or anyone else’s.”

Online YitzyS

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #128 on: October 28, 2021, 09:15:29 AM »
Rest of the quote
“ Around 7 points seems to be the average I hear from Democrats. But that’s a gut feeling. Polls — even by the best pollsters — sometimes miss the mark. But they’re also the only objective data we have on how the race looks. And that’s worth a lot more than my hunch or anyone else’s.”
Never ruin a good quote with the next line.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #129 on: October 28, 2021, 10:33:43 AM »
Never ruin a good quote with the next line. Because when you do that it makes the quote less interesting.

FTFY

Offline yuneeq

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Offline yesitsme

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #131 on: October 29, 2021, 11:57:39 AM »
770 claims jack has a change even with the Monmouth poll showing otherwise
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Offline asd

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #133 on: October 29, 2021, 01:50:53 PM »
Murphy is going to win, it is a no brainer to vote for him and have a seat at the table.

Online Kobe Bryant

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #134 on: October 29, 2021, 02:30:43 PM »
Meanwhile in VA...

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #135 on: October 29, 2021, 02:45:13 PM »
https://www.fdu.edu/news/murphy-retains-lead-builds-momentum-among-independents/

9 points
Looked closer. This is registered voters, NOT likely voters. If you follow the science of the Emmerson poll from last week, it's more like 6 points, or even less.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #136 on: October 29, 2021, 03:49:41 PM »
Murphy is going to win, it is a no brainer to vote for him and have a seat at the table.

What seat on the table? Lakewood never had a seat on the table, aside from getting scraps thrown at us, and will be even less when Murphy is a lame duck. If you're always voting for the winner, you’re showing your vote is meaningless. Lakewood hasn’t been promised anything by Murphy and we’re supposed to vote on hakaras hatov because he isn’t a rabid antismeite.  “Maybe” if we vote for him he won’t be so bad.

Better to show that you vote for your self interests and if the D’s want our vote every 2 years they need to earn it. However, the most important and beneficial thing is for everyone in Lakewood to vote, regardless of which party.

Offline asd

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #137 on: October 29, 2021, 04:22:29 PM »
The relationship murphy has with the frum askanim is unprecedented in nj politics. Most of the things we get from him we will never know (vehameivin yovin).

Offline yesitsme

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #138 on: October 29, 2021, 04:23:54 PM »
Compare it to the relationship between the developers and the Township

Online YitzyS

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Re: NJ governors debate
« Reply #139 on: October 29, 2021, 04:42:42 PM »
The relationship murphy has with the frum askanim is unprecedented in nj politics. Most of the things we get from him we will never know (vehameivin yovin).
They may have a good relationship, but what good is a good relationship if it is not leveraged for the things we really need.

Yes, I would also have a good relationship with someone who gets me all the votes with asking for only relatively small things in return. But are we selling ourselves short? Should we support someone who has not promised us any of the real big-ticket items we need?

And yes, although many members of the public are not aware of some of the things they have gotten, most of the things are not secret, and are written outright on the VAAD's second flier that came with the Voice. Including many of the things I mentioned in my previous post...

The VAAD and Avi Schnall have a working relationship with Murphy, and they have gotten certain things from him. Those things are not insignificant, but they are not necessarily the things Lakewood cares about most.

Things the VAAD/Schnall got:
Hands-off approach to Lakewood during most of Covid
Funding for LSTA every year (though not without teeth-pullilng)
Intervention by State to Facebook about Rise Up, plus strong stance on anti-Semitism
Increased funding for private school security, technology, special-ed, etc.
A good line of communication, so that they can bring potential issues directly to the governor's top brass

Most important things Lakewood residents really want:
Rabbi Eisemann not to be hounded
Route 9 widened
School funding formula fixed
Property taxes lowered

Jack Ciatterelli has promised to address the top priority items, though nobody really knows what he'll actually do once he's elected. The VAAD sees Murphy as a safe choice, because Ciatterelli could be worse, while much of Lakewood sees Murphy as not having done enough, and thus they'd rather bet on an alternative.

That's my assessment of the prevailing sentiment about the two choices.
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