Poll

If you were/are eligible for the 2nd booster shot, would you get it?

Yes
1 (11.1%)
No
5 (55.6%)
No, the Kool-aid will protect me.
3 (33.3%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Author Topic: Will you get the booster shot?  (Read 18773 times)

Online skyguy918

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #140 on: December 27, 2021, 05:18:05 PM »
Quote from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v3.full.pdf
The negative estimates in the final period arguably suggest different behaviour and/or exposure patterns in the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts causing underestimation of the VE. This was likely the result of Omicron spreading rapidly initially through single (super-spreading) events causing many infections among young, vaccinated individuals.
ETA:
Beat me to it by a few seconds. Didn't read the paper, but all of the replies to his follow-up tweet quoted this part of the paper.

Online yitzgar

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #141 on: December 27, 2021, 05:23:18 PM »
Ok, I just tried to actually read the paper, and in the discussion they address this question:

"The negative estimates in the final period arguably suggest different behaviour and/or exposure patterns in the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts causing underestimation of the VE. This was likely the result of Omicron spreading rapidly initially through single (super-spreading) events causing many infections among young, vaccinated individuals."

So I think they're saying that VE calculation may not be so meaningful in that time period because vaxed were behaving differently, exposing themselves to more large social events, so more likely to get infected than unvaxed.  This sounds like a reasonable speculation to me, but I'm not an epidemiologist etc, so will wait to hear whether the experts buy it.

In any event, they are saying that immunity basically returns with the booster, even if it's short-lasting against Omicron, which might be all we need, since Omicron seems to be short-lasting as an epidemic, so if we can all boost our immunity for another month or so, we may be over it.
Makes sense, but it's doubtful that unvaccinated are any more careful than vaxxed.
It's a real shame that they don't take into account whether the unvaccinated we're previously infected, as that could explain why more vaxxed are getting infected than unvaccinated. If true, it will end up having a negative effect on people's perception of the efficacy of the vaccine

Offline AsherO

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #142 on: December 27, 2021, 05:44:34 PM »
Found this about the negative numbers. No clue how he got to what he's saying, I just see that's what he's quoting.

https://twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1474106318206255113


Not sure what you “found out” from that tweet more than what was already being discussed here.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #143 on: December 27, 2021, 05:53:53 PM »
Makes sense, but it's doubtful that unvaccinated are any more careful than vaxxed.
Actually, this is a known phenomenon, that sometimes when measures are taken to decrease accidents, the result is an increase in accidents because when people feel they have extra protection, they may respond by taking extra risks.  For example, after requiring kids to wear bicycle helmets, or knee pads on skateboards, they may behave less carefully.  So similarly, those who've been vaxed may be more likely to attend large social events.

Quote
It's a real shame that they don't take into account whether the unvaccinated we're previously infected, as that could explain why more vaxxed are getting infected than unvaccinated.


They did take this into account, by not including those people in their study. "Previously SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive individuals were excluded."  This allowed them to more clearly focus on the effect of the vaccine, rather than previous infection. 

Offline as2

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #144 on: December 27, 2021, 05:56:08 PM »
Not sure what you “found out” from that tweet more than what was already being discussed here.
Specifically how he applies those negative numbers. He seemed to get that it is a higher likelihood. I didn't have a great understanding to begin with, so I was just throwing out his insight in hopes someone who understood it better could call it bogus, or use it to shed new light.
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Online yitzgar

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #145 on: December 27, 2021, 05:59:23 PM »


Actually, this is a known phenomenon, that sometimes when measures are taken to decrease accidents, the result is an increase in accidents because when people feel they have extra protection, they may respond by taking extra risks.  For example, after requiring kids to wear bicycle helmets, or knee pads on skateboards, they may behave less carefully.  So similarly, those who've been vaxed may be more likely to attend large social events.
 

But in this case, people that didn't get the vaccine overwhelmingly aren't the leat bit concerned, while many vaxxed have still been cautious

Online yitzgar

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #146 on: December 27, 2021, 05:59:49 PM »



They did take this into account, by not including those people in their study. "Previously SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive individuals were excluded."  This allowed them to more clearly focus on the effect of the vaccine, rather than previous infection.

Didn't realize that, thanks

Offline biobook

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #147 on: December 27, 2021, 06:09:34 PM »

But in this case, people that didn't get the vaccine overwhelmingly aren't the leat bit concerned, while many vaxxed have still been cautious
You're thinking of the vocal antivaxxers in America, but they did their research in Denmark.  Different age groups, different politics, etc.

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #148 on: December 27, 2021, 06:17:48 PM »
so if we can all boost our immunity for another month or so, we may be over it.

In other words, WE'RE ALMOST AT THE END!

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #149 on: December 27, 2021, 06:18:35 PM »
You're thinking of the vocal antivaxxers in America, but they did their research in Denmark.  Different age groups, different politics, etc.
Maybe...I have a feeling that some people are just the personality that doesn't really worry about this tye of thing and has no interest in getting this particular vaccine. These aren't your run of the mill antivaxxera....

Offline biobook

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #150 on: December 27, 2021, 06:31:13 PM »
Maybe...I have a feeling that some people are just the personality that doesn't really worry about this tye of thing and has no interest in getting this particular vaccine. These aren't your run of the mill antivaxxera....
Right, there are all kinds of people who are not vaccinated, so we can't really know who were the unvaccinated in this study from Denmark, and that's why I said they're just speculating when they say that the vaxed were more likely to get omicron because of their behavior, rather than because of some biological effect of the vaccination.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #151 on: December 27, 2021, 06:35:04 PM »
Specifically how he applies those negative numbers. He seemed to get that it is a higher likelihood. I didn't have a great understanding to begin with, so I was just throwing out his insight in hopes someone who understood it better could call it bogus, or use it to shed new light.

Meh, I have no reason to believe he has any more insight than I do
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Offline as2

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #152 on: December 27, 2021, 06:45:43 PM »
Meh, I have no reason to believe he has any more insight than I do
There. That's all I was looking for
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #153 on: December 27, 2021, 07:24:51 PM »
There. That's all I was looking for

No idea what you’re on about. The exact thing pointed out in this thread is what was noted on that Tweet, posting it didn’t contribute anything insightful.
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Offline as2

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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #154 on: December 27, 2021, 07:26:04 PM »
No idea what you’re on about. The exact thing pointed out in this thread is what was noted on that Tweet, posting it didn’t contribute anything insightful.
Never mind. As I've said many a time, articulation is not my strong point. My point is not being made and it's on me.
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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #155 on: December 27, 2021, 07:53:55 PM »

But in this case, people that didn't get the vaccine overwhelmingly aren't the leat bit concerned, while many vaxxed have still been cautious
I know a family of hardcore antivaxxers who are probably more cautious about COVID than anyone else I know.
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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #156 on: December 27, 2021, 08:21:00 PM »
I know a family of hardcore antivaxxers who are probably more cautious about COVID than anyone else I know.
I know someone struck by lightning.  ;)
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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #157 on: December 27, 2021, 08:43:05 PM »
I know someone struck by lightning.  ;)
Do you really?
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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #158 on: December 27, 2021, 08:47:32 PM »
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Re: Will you get the booster shot?
« Reply #159 on: December 27, 2021, 08:51:52 PM »
Do you really?

It’s more common than people realize
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