Author Topic: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant  (Read 19846 times)

Offline TimT

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Offline AsherO

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #182 on: December 17, 2021, 12:19:11 PM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/south-africa-hospitalization-rate-plunges-in-omicron-wave/ar-AARU5G2?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

This could actually be a blessing in disguise if it holds up in other countries. OTOH it could mean endemic COVID too (with the higher transmissibility and reinfection prevalence). Time will tell.

Offline Dan

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #183 on: December 17, 2021, 01:08:57 PM »
This could actually be a blessing in disguise if it holds up in other countries. OTOH it could mean endemic COVID too (with the higher transmissibility and reinfection prevalence). Time will tell.
Endemic COVID is a given, but Omicron is a the natural progression of a virus. It wants to spread to everyone, not kill its host and die off.
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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #184 on: December 17, 2021, 01:15:42 PM »
Endemic COVID is a given, but Omicron is a the natural progression of a virus. It wants to spread to everyone, not kill its host and die off.
Is it getting weaker or we just better at treating it?
@biobook
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline as2

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #185 on: December 17, 2021, 01:17:49 PM »
Is it getting weaker or we just better at treating it?
@biobook
Seems like both
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Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #186 on: December 17, 2021, 01:24:07 PM »
Is it getting weaker or we just better at treating it?
@biobook
Pathogens seem to naturally evolve to lose their extreme virulence.  A virus that quickly and ruthlessly destroys its host will soon be buried with that host, decreasing its ability to spread to others.  A virus that can spread surreptitiously (like covid, with its long incubation period) and that causes mild symptoms or is often asymptomatic (like omicron) will be more likely to stay around for a long time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #187 on: December 17, 2021, 01:25:28 PM »
Endemic COVID is a given

Do all experts agree on that?

Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #188 on: December 17, 2021, 01:30:42 PM »
Do all experts agree on that?
From wikipedia:  In epidemiology, an infection is said to be endemic in a population when that infection is constantly maintained at a baseline level in a geographic area without external inputs.

"Constantly maintained" implies it remains around over a period of time, and so TIME is required to answer that.  The way I've seen it expressed is something like "it seems to be on a path to become endemic", which I interpret to mean that it's a bit too early to be sure.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #189 on: December 17, 2021, 01:32:15 PM »
Pathogens seem to naturally evolve to lose their extreme virulence.  A virus that quickly and ruthlessly destroys its host will soon be buried with that host, decreasing its ability to spread to others.  A virus that can spread surreptitiously (like covid, with its long incubation period) and that causes mild symptoms or is often asymptomatic (like omicron) will be more likely to stay around for a long time.
The longer it stays around do they normally get weaker?
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #190 on: December 17, 2021, 01:41:12 PM »
The longer it stays around do they normally get weaker?
A particular viral particle doesn't get weaker - an alpha always has alpha virulence, a delta always acts like delta.  When we talk about how much virus is "out there", we're really talking about a mixture of alphas, betas, deltas, omicrons and other variants.  In March 2020, the predominant variant was very virulent and very contagious, but as it mutated, and the mutations spread, other variants in the mix began to predominate.

If omicron spreads easily and causes only mild disease, then it may become the dominant coronavirus in that mix, so we might think of it as "coronavirus became weaker", but it's really just a change in the proportion of variants in the mix. 

(This is somewhat similar to the different flu variants that predominate every year, necessitating new vaccines.)

Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #191 on: December 17, 2021, 01:49:27 PM »
Endemic COVID is a given, but Omicron is one step ina the natural progression of a virus. It wants to spread to everyone, not kill its host and die off.
FTFY.  That is, it's possible for a less virulent variant to outcompete the more virulent ones, and become the dominant virus.  But it's also possible for a more virulent variant to appear and spread, which was the concern when omicron first appeared.

Offline Moshe123

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #192 on: December 17, 2021, 01:52:48 PM »
?t=uWsQXVISv223Bm8zU5P5_g&s=19

Insanity


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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #193 on: December 17, 2021, 02:34:11 PM »
FTFY.  That is, it's possible for a less virulent variant to outcompete the more virulent ones, and become the dominant virus.  But it's also possible for a more virulent variant to appear and spread, which was the concern when omicron first appeared.
And which was the case with Delta.

Offline Dan

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #194 on: December 17, 2021, 03:05:59 PM »
And which was the case with Delta.
Source that Delta was more virulent than its predecessors?
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Offline Moshe123

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #195 on: December 17, 2021, 03:32:23 PM »
NEW YORK: BREAKING: New York reports highest single-day case total of the entire COVID pandemic, with 21,027 positives.

Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #196 on: December 17, 2021, 03:34:22 PM »
Maybe I spoke too soon...  like a century too soon.  The idea that disease become less virulent over time seems to have originated in the 1800s, and is now thought to apply to only some diseases.  Others seem to remain the same, or even get worse.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/will-coronavirus-evolve-be-less-deadly-180976288/

Source that Delta was more virulent than its predecessors?
Here's one:  "One important question is whether the Delta strain will make you sicker than the original virus. Early information about the severity of Delta included studies from Scotland and Canada, both cited by the CDC, that suggested the Delta variant may be more likely to result in hospitalization in the unvaccinated."
[Originally published: June 28, 2021. Updated: Dec. 10, 2021.]
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid

Offline Onefishtwofish

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #197 on: December 17, 2021, 03:39:47 PM »
NEW YORK: BREAKING: New York reports highest single-day case total of the entire COVID pandemic, with 21,027 positives.

Do we know how many of those were vaccinated?

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #198 on: December 17, 2021, 04:27:15 PM »
Do we know how many of those were vaccinated?
Then once that is figured out, how many caught it from the unvaccinated?
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline AsherO

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #199 on: December 18, 2021, 05:41:02 PM »
Then once that is figured out, how many caught it from the unvaccinated?

Much harder to figure out. Even the first determination is easier to make with in counties with a unified national health record.