Omicron- does vaccination now = seatbelts?

[jye]

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/omicron-vaccine-efficacy-what-early-data-shows-about-new-variant-and-covid-vaccines/2709176/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risk-of-vaccinated-covid-transmission-is-not-low/

Other than the issue of not taking previous infection status into account, I get the viewpoint of those incentivizing mass vaccination even if I’m not a fan of the execution.
After all, until recently vaccinations were correctly being touted as a means of stopping the spread of covid and protecting others. Restricting some venues or border entry to those vaccinated made some logical sense even if it was debatable. Vaccination resulted in fewer transmissions. Even if natural immunity has a similar effect, perhaps there were too many variables and practical considerations to equate it with vaccination.

Enter Omicron. All indicators point to a very low or negligible (J&J) efficacy in preventing transmission of the virus. The good news, we are told, is that vaccines are still effective at preventing severe illness.

Considering that research seems to show that viral loads are similar in infected vaccinated individuals vs unvaccinated, it would seem that vaccination is no longer protecting others and stopping transmission, it is simply protecting that individual from severe disease, which may be a good idea but is no longer the “stop the spread” vehicle it is still being cast as.

One might say vaccine passports and the like are still in the public interest as a “carrot and stick” incentivization to prevent individuals from becoming seriously ill and causing capacity issues in the healthcare system ( and this assumes that omicron does cause severe illness which is an unknown at this point). This idea brings something else to mind: seatbelts.

Is that where we are at at this point? If that is true why is vaccination still being cast as a stop-the-spread-and-protect-others program which it appears to no longer be?

[AsherO]

Typical anti-vax talking points adapted for Omicron, yawn…

[jye]

Typical anti-vax talking points adapted for Omicron, yawn…

Not really. My family members are vaccinated. I believe virtually all of the anti vax claims are anecdotal or based on manipulated data and don’t hold up to peer reviewed scientific research. But I do have an open mind and honestly think that not taking recovered status into account was a mistake. Assuming the early indications of transmission of Omicron among the vaccinated are correct I thing the above deserves more than a “typical anti vax” rebuttal.

[AsherO]

One example:

“Viral loads are the same for vaccinated and unvaccinated” is a typical anti-vax talking point. It doesn’t consider that the vaccine reportedly prevented COVID infections in ~50% of cases (or maybe less than 50%. but in some cases), and the “same viral load” wasn’t relevant in those people who didn’t get infected. We know Omicron is more prone to reinfecntion, but it’s waaay too soon to know what percentage of infections are prevented in recently-bolstered people.

Also, your entire tone and bias is anti-vaxxy. All of this has been debated ad-nauseum, so I’m not going to go in circles with you on it.

[aygart]

What does this have to do with seatbelts?

[avromie7]

One example:

“Viral loads are the same for vaccinated and unvaccinated” is a typical anti-vax talking point. It doesn’t consider that the vaccine reportedly prevented COVID infections in ~50% of cases (or maybe less than 50%. but in some cases), and the “same viral load” wasn’t relevant in those people who didn’t get infected. We know Omicron is more prone to reinfecntion, but it’s waaay too soon to know what percentage of infections are prevented in recently-bolstered people.

Also, your entire tone and bias is anti-vaxxy. All of this has been debated ad-nauseum, so I’m not going to go in circles with you on it.

You must not have read any real anti-vax stuff.

[avromie7]

What does this have to do with seatbelts?

Only helps the person using it, but government is still forcing it.

[jye]

One example:

“Viral loads are the same for vaccinated and unvaccinated” is a typical anti-vax talking point. It doesn’t consider that the vaccine reportedly prevented COVID infections in ~50% of cases (or maybe less than 50%. but in some cases), and the “same viral load” wasn’t relevant in those people who didn’t get infected. We know Omicron is more prone to reinfecntion, but it’s waaay too soon to know what percentage of infections are prevented in recently-bolstered people.

Also, your entire tone and bias is anti-vaxxy. All of this has been debated ad-nauseum, so I’m not going to go in circles with you on it.

It’s sad that the knee jerk reaction is so stick a label on everything today but I guess the polarization of everything is to blame. I can show you the back and forth I  have had with anti vaxxers who bring in all their quack theories of pilot deaths, athlete deaths, misscariages, and anecdotal claims from random supposed medical experts (often disbarred quacks), all of which are gross distortions of data, misrepresentation, and takeaways from misleading or unreliable anecdotes. I’ve countered that with data, peer reviewed studies, and logic.

Yet I’m an intellectually honest person and I’m not married to any position.A prime example of this is prior infection which I feel has not been given the weight preliminary research has shown it ought to be given.

Bottom line: If the vaccines are demonstrated to prevent omicron infections in sufficient numbers to make a real difference my point above is moot. Is there evidence to support that? I’m going to assume  that 20 or 30% efficacy will probably not significantly alter the course of spread. What about 40 or 50%? I’m assuming that would have some moderate impact on th R number, but enough to make a real difference and guide public policy?

[jye]

Only helps the person using it, but government is still forcing it.

Mostly helps the individual. The government can still claim that it needlessly utilizes finite healthcare resources.

[avromie7]

Mostly helps the individual. The government can still claim that it needlessly utilizes finite healthcare resources.

When you start going down that rabbit hole, the most effective would be a diet mandate.

[AsherO]

Bottom line: If the vaccines are demonstrated to prevent omicron infections in sufficient numbers to make a real difference my point above is moot. Is there evidence to support that? I’m going to assume  that 20 or 30% efficacy will probably not significantly alter the course of spread. What about 40 or 50%? I’m assuming that would have some moderate impact on th R number, but enough to make a real difference and guide public policy?

The issue is that you'll only have the data after the fact, and the policies have to be made in advance using preliminary data.

[avromie7]

The issue is that you'll only have the data after the fact, and the policies have to be made in advance using preliminary data.

It would be nice if they used the preliminary data, instead of politics.

[cmey]

Independent thinking is a must in this environment. My friend’s pediatrician told him that it’s urgent that he vaccinate his 12 year old kid because “it’s dangerous for [the kid]”. The kid is a normal healthy slightly chubby 12 year old. Vaccinating the kid may actually make sense but the way it was presented was not reasonable.

[Euclid]

When you start going down that rabbit hole, the most effective would be a diet mandate.

Making sugar a regulated substance would be a good start.

[cmey]

When you start going down that rabbit hole, the most effective would be a diet mandate.

The visibility of cause and effect and easy change of habit make seatbelts a far easier sell politically.

[CountValentine]

Only helps the person using it, but government is still forcing it.

...and vaccines help both so we should double enforce it? 

[avromie7]

Making sugar a regulated substance would be a good start.

It is, that's why there is so much high fructose corn syrup

[Euclid]

It is, that's why there is so much high fructose corn syrup

Which regulation? The FDA's "added sugar" regulation applies to high fructose corn syrup too.

[avromie7]

Which regulation? The FDA's "added sugar" regulation applies to high fructose corn syrup too.

Import restrictions on sugar

[Euclid]

Import restrictions on sugar

Ah, not what I meant