Will the US reach 1m daily cases in 2021?

[PlatinumGuy]

250k/day today and in Europe it’s doubling every 2-3 days…

[Alexsei]

US already has 20% natural immunity... we should see the light at the end of the tunnel soon

[Dan]

US already has 20% natural immunity... we should see the light at the end of the tunnel soon

My brother had COVID a year ago, was double vaccinated, and got COVID again this week along with his whole family.
So, good luck with that.

[Alexsei]

My brother had COVID a year ago, was double vaccinated, and got COVID again this week along with his whole family.
So, good luck with that.

yeah.. but at least we won't be talking about it 24/7 we'll just go back to normal

[tweet]1474127887594885128[/tweet]

[Dan]

yeah.. but at least we won't be talking about it 24/7 we'll just go back to normal

Only normal we're going back to is when Moshiach comes. Government and media won't give this up and the fact is, people are still dying by the thousands.

[Alexsei]

people are still dying by the thousands.

Make dying normal again

[4yourinfo]

My brother had COVID a year ago, was double vaccinated, and got COVID again this week along with his whole family.
So, good luck with that.

+1 Omicron apparently is a completely different strain multiple people who got covid are all coming down with this.. so far sounds like a scaled down version.. with the numbers I'm fully convinced the vaccine isn't stopping this at all - minimizing symptoms at most

[Alexsei]

+1 Omicron apparently is a completely different strain multiple people who got covid are all coming down with this.. so far sounds like a scaled down version.. with the numbers I'm fully convinced the vaccine isn't stopping this at all - minimizing symptoms at most

Been around for years, I had already 95 times and I'm young...

[aygart]

+1  minimizing symptoms at most

Sounds like a great reason to get vaccinated

[aygart]

https://news.ohsu.edu/2021/12/16/breakthrough-infections-generate-super-immunity-to-covid-19-study-suggests#

[yelped]

https://news.ohsu.edu/2021/12/16/breakthrough-infections-generate-super-immunity-to-covid-19-study-suggests#

Makes sense

[Lurker]

250k/day today and in Europe it’s doubling every 2-3 days…

Not going to see 1M, but not because we don't have the cases. Anecdotally, I'm seeing a ton of people just assuming they have it and not getting tested, and I'm also seeing testing capacity in my area more than maxed.

[PlatinumGuy]

Not going to see 1M, but not because we don't have the cases. Anecdotally, I'm seeing a ton of people just assuming they have it and not getting tested, and I'm also seeing testing capacity in my area more than maxed.

The current positivity rate is ~9%, and we've seen it hit 30-50% in hotspots, so it would seem there is enough testing capacity to show 1m

[Lurker]

The current positivity rate is ~9%, and we've seen it hit 30-50% in hotspots, so it would seem there is enough testing capacity to show 1m

I'm not a math wiz, but I'm not sure how those numbers show that we could hit 1M if people aren't testing or if there are localized shortages of tests in hotspots. Also, even if we could hit 1M mathematically, I'm just giving 2 reasons why I think we won't, based on what I've seen in a small localized hotspot over the last 10 days or so.

[yelped]

I'm not a math wiz, but I'm not sure how those numbers show that we could hit 1M if people aren't testing or if there are localized shortages of tests in hotspots. Also, even if we could hit 1M mathematically, I'm just giving 2 reasons why I think we won't, based on what I've seen in a small localized hotspot over the last 10 days or so.

I agree. Many people are not going to stand 2-3 hours in line if they are sick, and it seems that Omicron will do the same all over.

[Lurker]

Also anecdotally, I'm hearing (firsthand) of a number of people who are testing negative within the first 2-3 days of symptoms, and only testing positive after. Most people I know aren't actually retesting after the first negative or 2, though, so that may mess with the numbers. Additionally, speaking to someone in a lab this week, I'm told kids are testing positive in huge numbers right now, and most are either asymptomatic, or with very mild symptoms. An entire youth soccer team tested, with 90% positivity (outdoor sport in FL). He tells me the number of adults who have tested positive who mentioned something to him about a kid with a cold who they didn't get tested is more than a few.

TL;DR: my opinion is that cases are much, much higher than the reported numbers. TG this strain seems to be more manageable (symptom-wise).

[AsherO]

I agree with lurker re testing capacity/availability hiding the real number.

Speaking to the topic of this thread, if doubling times are 2-3 days, 1m could potentially only materialize in early January 2021. But it could also peak before then…

[AsherO]

DW likely has what I do, but with different symptoms (her antibodies are lower than mine). She used the same type of antigen test as I did at the same time as me (her symptoms onset was 12 hours or so later, but but already started when she took the antigen test) and she tested negative.

No idea how my kids are testing, but BH they’re asymptomatic (other than cabin fever )

ETA re kids: OTOH this: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/striking-increase-ny-urgent-advisory-to-pediatricians-as-child-covid-hospitalizations-quadruple/3467510/

[PlatinumGuy]

3 days off

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1478160982425972738

[AsherO]

3 days off

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1478160982425972738

Does it count if it's just because of reporting lags and in reality the average is (signifcantly) lower?