Have lockdowns caused a massive increase in mortality?

[EJB]

Through the 2 years or in the first few months?

Actually both.

[aygart]

Actually both.

Procedures or check ups? Where are you located?

[aygart]

For April-Jun, you’re prob better off.

That depends on so many individual factors that it is ridiculous. It depends on what was being delayed, what the individual covid risk level is, whether or not they already were infected, and in hindsight, whether they were undercuts later anyhow.

[Moshe Green]

{{Citation needed}}

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210210/child-suicides-rising-during-lockdown

SOURCE: Penn State Health, news release, Feb. 3, 2021

[Dan]

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210210/child-suicides-rising-during-lockdown

SOURCE: Penn State Health, news release, Feb. 3, 2021

This is citable data:
https://www.dansdeals.com/more/dans-commentary/news-roundup/5-16-21-news-roundup-violence-israel-meron-thoughts-get-away-murder-inflation-chinese-vaccine-delta-abuse-nazi-escape-rental-car-shortage/#No_Lockdowns_Did_Not_Cause_Increased_Suicides

If there's other citable data, I'd love to see it.

[EJB]

Also, while an age group in a region is helpful information, we’re looking at the total impact. If suicides overall are down but were slightly higher for teenagers, for example, that’s important information but not indicative that lockdowns contributes to an increase in suicide deaths.

[Yehuda57]

If you cancelled a procedure or checkup after July 2020 due to covid that’s on you, not the lockdowns.

For April-Jun, you’re prob better off.

Wow, oncology patients who had treatments postponed for 3 months were better off. Great take.

And places were closed well past June in many places

[CountValentine]

Wow, oncology patients who had treatments postponed for 3 months were better off. Great take.

WOW, talk about putting words in someone's mouth.

[EJB]

Wow, oncology patients who had treatments postponed for 3 months were better off. Great take.

And places were closed well past June in many places

What places were forced closed for more than 3 months?

And what places were forced to stop oncology treatment? I have relatives and coworkers that received oncology treatment in May 2020 in NJ and NY. April in NJ.

And why is this only manifesting in excess non covid deaths now?

[aygart]

What places were forced closed for more than 3 months?

And what places were forced to stop oncology treatment? I have relatives and coworkers that received oncology treatment in May 2020 in NJ and NY. April in NJ.

And why is this only manifesting in excess non covid deaths now?

Even after restrictions were relaxed there was a backlog.

It happened with a family member of mine and I wrote about it at the time here on Ddf. Maybe there was difference between continuing and starting our some other difference.

Who said that it is only happening now?

The idea that restricting elective surgeries won't have such effects is ridiculous in the face of it. How could it possibly not happen. The question is only the extent of it. That doesn't mean it wasn't the right decision to make at the time based on what was known then. I wrote along these lines at the time too.

[EJB]

What procedure was not allowed. Was it restricted by law or hospital policy? Did your family member try to have it classified as “essential”?

And the OP article says the statistically significant increases happened in q3 2021

[Yehuda57]

What places were forced closed for more than 3 months?

And what places were forced to stop oncology treatment? I have relatives and coworkers that received oncology treatment in May 2020 in NJ and NY. April in NJ.

And why is this only manifesting in excess non covid deaths now?

One case I know of was in my brother's community in NJ, was undergoing treatments and was well on the road to recovery. His life saving treatments were deemed elective when covid hit at the end of March, and the cancer spread with a vengeance. By the time June came around it was too late to restart treatment and he was moved to hospice.

I can't imagine you'd say to his daughter he was "better off".

If you want to say that it seemed like the right decision at the time, I can understand you. But to say that it was the correct decision even retrospectively, to me is just stunning.

Then there's your comment saying "it's on you" for pushing off screenings and checkups when public health folk and the media were instilling the fear of death into people. At the same time as they were saying, "don't push off medical checkups" *because* they realized how bad it was, they were still making as if being in public was a death sentence.

[EJB]

...but now we can blame covid for all our current/future problems instead of addressing what has been causing them for the last 50-100 years.

2025 - Murder rate goes up 50%. Must be covid related! 

No it’s due to defunding the police

[Sammy82]

What procedure was not allowed. Was it restricted by law or hospital policy? Did your family member try to have it classified as “essential”?

And the OP article says the statistically significant increases happened in q3 2021

Anybody that knows anything would consider kidney transplant as critical. I personally was scheduled to donate. It got delayed several months. And then got delayed again another 8 months (for other reasons). Obviously hashem has a plan and the recipient got a kidney when it was the right time. But for someone who may not believe in HKBH's standpoint, he should have received it over a year earlier. And he's one of the lucky ones. I know a few people who were scheduled to receive transplants (I work with dialysis pts), were delayed since it was considered 'elective' surgery and by the time the hospital/government allowed it, they were too sick to receive it.

[EJB]

Anybody that knows anything would consider kidney transplant as critical. I personally was scheduled to donate. It got delayed several months. And then got delayed again another 8 months (for other reasons). Obviously hashem has a plan and the recipient got a kidney when it was the right time. But for someone who may not believe in HKBH's standpoint, he should have received it over a year earlier. And he's one of the lucky ones. I know a few people who were scheduled to receive transplants (I work with dialysis pts), were delayed since it was considered 'elective' surgery and by the time the hospital/government allowed it, they were too sick to receive it.

1. Issue is donating a kidney, not receiving. But yes, you need donors to receive organs. Donating is a grey area - I’d argue it should be considered essential, but even if not, that isn’t a criticism of lockdowns just how “essential” procedures was defined
2. Even after procedures were allowed hospitals were very restrictive on transplants bc of high covid mortality during procedure.
3. These sort of delayed procedures should have already increased non covid death rates. Why is the increase only manifesting in q3 2021 for these sort of procedures?

[aygart]

One case I know of was in my brother's community in NJ, was undergoing treatments and was well on the road to recovery. His life saving treatments were deemed elective when covid hit at the end of March, and the cancer spread with a vengeance. By the time June came around it was too late to restart treatment and he was moved to hospice.

I can't imagine you'd say to his daughter he was "better off".

If you want to say that it seemed like the right decision at the time, I can understand you. But to say that it was the correct decision even retrospectively, to me is just stunning.

Then there's your comment saying "it's on you" for pushing off screenings and checkups when public health folk and the media were instilling the fear of death into people. At the same time as they were saying, "don't push off medical checkups" *because* they realized how bad it was, they were still making as if being in public was a death sentence.

I can very easily see a good argument that even with what we know now it makes sense for the more optional procedures

[aygart]

1. Issue is donating a kidney, not receiving. But yes, you need donors to receive organs. Donating is a grey area - I’d argue it should be considered essential, but even if not, that isn’t a criticism of lockdowns just how “essential” procedures was defined
2. Even after procedures were allowed hospitals were very restrictive on transplants bc of high covid mortality during procedure.
3. These sort of delayed procedures should have already increased non covid death rates. Why is the increase only manifesting in q3 2021 for these sort of procedures?

1. I am not sure where you are even seeing criticism of lockdowns. It was obvious from day one that there would be negative ramifications and that can be acquittal risk.


3. That is a good question and is worth studying. I can throw out some speculation but that is what it would be.

[Yehuda57]

If someone dies because they missed a screening, they won't suddenly drop dead. It can take many months, even years.

[EJB]

If someone dies because they missed a screening, they won't suddenly drop dead. It can take many months, even years.

We were discussing cancer treatment and organ transplant, not screening.

Even that can take years, but I would expect a material increase before 15 months.

My hypothesis is that delayed screening and treatment causes a small degree of increased deaths. But the recent increase is more due to obesity, worse eating, decreased exercise, increased hypertension, etc. Also can be caused by lockdowns, but may not return to normal even as society returns to normal (e.g., more remote work means less activity).