Author Topic: 2022 Midterm Elections  (Read 60055 times)

Online CountValentine

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #40 on: August 03, 2022, 08:23:58 AM »
I don't know if you are wrong, but at the same time, I think you cannot judge a trend based on comparing a single  (small) poll against a single (primary) election.

This seems to be the poll you cited: 1,557 is a pretty low sample rate, IINM. At the same time, a July 20 article on fivethirtyeight.com about that poll points out why Primary Elections more strongly favor the one's who are more passionate than regular elections.
The big surprise here it was a red state.
It seems the R's are doing everything they can to lose the mid-terms from gun control, RvW, putting up nutcase election deniers and the latest veteran's debacle. They now look like the party out of touch.
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Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline aygart

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #42 on: August 03, 2022, 09:50:49 AM »
The million dollar question here is how much did the polls undercount RvW turnout in Kansas. If it was significant, that's a real indication of a blue tsunami in November.

If the polls predicted Kansas accurately, we should assume they're accurately prediction a nearly 50:50 Senate

ETA the only poll I can find is https://kansasreflector.com/2022/07/20/poll-shows-kansans-closely-divided-on-constitutional-amendment-on-abortion/

Showing 47-43 Pro life - pro choice.

Results appear to be 60-40 pro choice.

So pollsters clearly don't know how to account for RvW turnout. If they're making a mistake even half that size in other elections, Dems will get a filibuster proof majority.

Besides the difference between primary and general, there is a significant difference between an election directly about an issue and one for a representative.
In general, how reputable is that polling firm?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Offline aygart

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Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline BP16

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #45 on: August 03, 2022, 12:39:06 PM »
The million dollar question here is how much did the polls undercount RvW turnout in Kansas. If it was significant, that's a real indication of a blue tsunami in November.

If the polls predicted Kansas accurately, we should assume they're accurately prediction a nearly 50:50 Senate

ETA the only poll I can find is https://kansasreflector.com/2022/07/20/poll-shows-kansans-closely-divided-on-constitutional-amendment-on-abortion/

Showing 47-43 Pro life - pro choice.

Results appear to be 60-40 pro choice.

So pollsters clearly don't know how to account for RvW turnout. If they're making a mistake even half that size in other elections, Dems will get a filibuster proof majority.
The other Million dollar question is how much more damage can the Biden admin cause this country! with an average RCP of under 40 for Biden how much lower can he get?

Offline imayid2

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #46 on: August 03, 2022, 02:18:35 PM »
The million dollar question here is how much did the polls undercount RvW turnout in Kansas. If it was significant, that's a real indication of a blue tsunami in November.

If the polls predicted Kansas accurately, we should assume they're accurately prediction a nearly 50:50 Senate

ETA the only poll I can find is https://kansasreflector.com/2022/07/20/poll-shows-kansans-closely-divided-on-constitutional-amendment-on-abortion/

Showing 47-43 Pro life - pro choice.

Results appear to be 60-40 pro choice.

So pollsters clearly don't know how to account for RvW turnout. If they're making a mistake even half that size in other elections, Dems will get a filibuster proof majority.
Why do you think that abortion is the only thing people care about? This vote was on abortion, in their state, and nothing more than that (they may even agree that another state should have the right to choose otherwise). There is a whole lot more at stake in November.

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #47 on: August 03, 2022, 02:46:15 PM »
There is a whole lot more at stake in November.
More than murder?  :)
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Offline imayid2

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #48 on: August 03, 2022, 04:40:19 PM »
More than murder?  :)
We are talking about the people that don’t think it is, or if it is don’t care enough.
But I bet they care deeply about their bank accounts.

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #49 on: August 03, 2022, 06:05:20 PM »
But I bet they care deeply about their bank accounts.
Ouch!
This is why I ask earlier for your definition of pro-life. Can someone who believes that aborting an embryo is not murder be pro-life? 
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Offline imayid2

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #50 on: August 03, 2022, 06:24:26 PM »
Ouch!
This is why I ask earlier for your definition of pro-life. Can someone who believes that aborting an embryo is not murder be pro-life?
Can they?
 I’ve never entertained that possibility, but by all means I’m open to new definitions.

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #51 on: August 03, 2022, 06:28:45 PM »
Can they?
Of course. There are pro-lifers who believe it should be the woman's choice. There are pro-lifers who believe abortion is ok in certain situations.

I am willing to bet many pro-lifers that defeated the KS bill would never get an abortion.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #52 on: August 03, 2022, 06:43:14 PM »
Of course. There are pro-lifers who believe it should be the woman's choice.

No. If they believe that it should be the woman's choice, even if they are personally opposed to abortion, then they are pro-choice

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #53 on: August 03, 2022, 06:45:48 PM »
No. If they believe that it should be the woman's choice, even if they are personally opposed to abortion, then they are pro-choice
Then how about those that believe abortion is ok. They must be pro-choice.
You like most on each end only want to see it one way.
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Offline imayid2

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #54 on: August 03, 2022, 06:47:20 PM »
Of course. There are pro-lifers who believe it should be the woman's choice.
Sure beats me why you think that isn’t “pro choice”.
Whaddaya think? Pro choicers don’t have kids? They would’ve wiped themselves out long ago if that were the case…

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #55 on: August 03, 2022, 06:48:19 PM »
Then how about those that believe abortion is ok. They must be pro-choice.
You like most on each end only want to see it one way.
If someone thinks abortion is ok, how the hell are they pro life?

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #56 on: August 03, 2022, 06:50:20 PM »
Sure beats me why you think that isn’t “pro choice”.
Whaddaya think? Pro choicers don’t have kids? They would’ve wiped themselves out long ago if that were the case…
The whole pro-choice/pro-life is non-sense. Both sides believe in both. Probably the only true pro-life position is the Catholic Church which I disagree with.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #57 on: August 03, 2022, 06:50:32 PM »
Then how about those that believe abortion is ok. They must be pro-choice.

They are also pro-choice.

Then there are those who think abortion is good. I would call them pro-abortion.

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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #58 on: August 03, 2022, 06:52:05 PM »
If someone thinks abortion is ok, how the hell are they pro life?
Wait a minute. Abortion is not ok when the life of the mother is in danger? Any state that has an exception to allow an abortion can't be pro-life?
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Re: Midterm Elections
« Reply #59 on: August 03, 2022, 06:53:04 PM »
They are also pro-choice.
Bingo, we have a winner!!!
The whole pro-choice/pro-life is non-sense. Both sides believe in both. Probably the only true pro-life position is the Catholic Church which I disagree with.
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