Author Topic: 2022 Midterm Elections  (Read 68074 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #440 on: October 27, 2022, 11:30:34 AM »
I don't think that it is at all certain (and maybe not even probable) that centrist candidates would be doing better. A more important factor is a candidate's political skills.
Herschel Walker?
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Offline yelped

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #441 on: October 27, 2022, 11:34:07 AM »
I don't think that it is at all certain (and maybe not even probable) that centrist candidates would be doing better. A more important factor is a candidate's political skills.

To use AZ for example, Kari Lake, who is more "MAGA" than the Senate candidate Blake Masters. Yet Lake is up 10 points, while Masters is struggling. Why? I think the answer is political skills (of the candidates and their opponents).

PA is another example. Oz was the most "centrist" candidate in the primary, but is still behind in the polls, and is only that close because of Fetterman's stroke. Mastriano is doing 5 points worse, but that can be ascribed to political skill as well.

Meanwhile, Zeldin and Levy (CT Senate) both were the MAGA candidates in the primary, and are competitive in races that no one dreamed of.
Maybe, I'm not really into politics that much, so wouldn't know. Is Zeldin a real MAGA guy? Definitely doesn't seem like one. Maybe just officially?

Offline Dan

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #442 on: October 27, 2022, 11:37:43 AM »
I don't think that it is at all certain (and maybe not even probable) that centrist candidates would be doing better. A more important factor is a candidate's political skills.

To use AZ for example, Kari Lake, who is more "MAGA" than the Senate candidate Blake Masters. Yet Lake is up 10 points, while Masters is struggling. Why? I think the answer is political skills (of the candidates and their opponents).

PA is another example. Oz was the most "centrist" candidate in the primary, but is still behind in the polls, and is only that close because of Fetterman's stroke. Mastriano is doing 5 points worse, but that can be ascribed to political skill as well.

Meanwhile, Zeldin and Levy (CT Senate) both were the MAGA candidates in the primary, and are competitive in races that no one dreamed of.
OH is way closer than it should be due to Trump foisting Vance on us and Ryan pretending to be a centrist.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #443 on: October 27, 2022, 11:42:39 AM »
Unfortunately, candidates' qualifications/skills are at the bottom of list.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #444 on: October 27, 2022, 02:06:21 PM »
Herschel Walker?

His flaws as a candidate have nothing to do with how conservative he is.

Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #445 on: October 27, 2022, 02:13:30 PM »
Is Zeldin a real MAGA guy? Definitely doesn't seem like one. Maybe just officially?

Depends how you define that term.

He was considered the most conservative of the Republicans in the primary.

Offline yelped

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #446 on: October 27, 2022, 02:25:42 PM »
Depends how you define that term.

He was considered the most conservative of the Republicans in the primary.
I don't mean conservative positions. I mean wacky conspiracy theories, promoting crazies, etc.

Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #447 on: October 27, 2022, 02:35:13 PM »
I don't mean conservative positions. I mean wacky conspiracy theories, promoting crazies, etc.

I specifically did not quote the "MAGA buffoons" part of your post. I agree that Trump's policy of looking at only one thing (support for Trump) in making endorsements has damaged the Republican's position. For example, I believe that Kathy Barnette would be doing better than Oz in the PA senate race.

I am only pushing back on your claim that "more centrist candidates" would be doing better.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #448 on: October 27, 2022, 02:43:13 PM »
His flaws as a candidate have nothing to do with how conservative he is.
Conservative? Now that is funny.

Using your logic Liz Chenny should be the next R nominee for president.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #449 on: October 27, 2022, 03:08:58 PM »
Conservative? Now that is funny.

Using your logic Liz Chenny should be the next R nominee for president.

Huh? My opinion is that the Republicans should nominate conservative candidates who are skilled politicians.

Liz Cheney may be conservative (although she was consistently rated in the middle of the pack by conservative policy groups), but pissing off so many of your constituents that you lose in a blowout is not good political skills.

I will also note that long before she went anti-Trump, she was considered a middle-of-the-road Republican (at least by her fellow Republicans). While she took the far-right position on foreign policy, on domestic policy she was a moderate.

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #450 on: October 27, 2022, 03:26:28 PM »
Huh? My opinion is that the Republicans should nominate conservative candidates who are skilled politicians.

Liz Cheney may be conservative (although she was consistently rated in the middle of the pack by conservative policy groups), but pissing off so many of your constituents that you lose in a blowout is not good political skills.

I will also note that long before she went anti-Trump, she was considered a middle-of-the-road Republican (at least by her fellow Republicans). While she took the far-right position on foreign policy, on domestic policy she was a moderate.
She voted more with the R's more then say Matt Gaetz or the person who replaced her, Elise Stefanik. Her conservatism and skills meant nothing. Her downfall was telling the truth about Trump.

It is not even Friday, but I still enjoy your pretzel.  :)
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #451 on: October 27, 2022, 08:34:21 PM »
She voted more with the R's more then...

Exactly my point. She was a mainstream Republican. The media's attempt to portray her as the most conservative person in the Republican party started after she became useful to their agenda of attacking Trump.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #452 on: October 27, 2022, 08:37:59 PM »
Exactly my point. She was a mainstream Republican.
So voting with Trump 90%+ of the time is mainstream?
H Walker is conservative, and she is mainstream. You can't make this stuff up.
Sorry but no salt on the next pretzel.  :)

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Offline aygart

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #453 on: October 27, 2022, 11:03:59 PM »
So voting with Trump 90%+ of the time is mainstream?
H Walker is conservative, and she is mainstream. You can't make this stuff up.
Sorry but no salt on the next pretzel.  :)
What were the records of Rs you consider to be more moderate?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yelped

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #454 on: October 28, 2022, 01:38:37 PM »
The D's need centrist also. The picture I am seeing is the centrist or the "I's" are the ones really deciding the elections.
Trying to murder Nancy Pelosi definitely won't convince the "I"s to vote for the "R"s.

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #455 on: October 28, 2022, 01:42:18 PM »
Trying to murder Nancy Pelosi definitely won't convince the "I"s to vote for the "R"s.
It was probably a D since he had a hammer and not a gun.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #456 on: October 28, 2022, 05:11:10 PM »
Trying to murder Nancy Pelosi definitely won't convince the "I"s to vote for the "R"s.

Blaming "R"s for a crime committed by an extreme leftist nutjob is not going to convince anyone to vote for the "D"s.

But if we are making this political, people noticing that crime in SF has gotten so bad that even Pelosi's husband isn't safe might help "R"s.

Offline Dan

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #457 on: October 31, 2022, 07:34:41 PM »
PA debate has turned senate control into a near true dead heat. If PA stays R, then Rs should only need to win NV or GA to flip control.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo
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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #458 on: October 31, 2022, 07:47:20 PM »
PA debate has turned senate control into a near true dead heat. If PA stays R, then Rs should only need to win NV or GA to flip control.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo


They put Zeldin as a 3% chance of winning

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #459 on: October 31, 2022, 07:55:59 PM »
PA debate has turned senate control into a near true dead heat. If PA stays R, then Rs should only need to win NV or GA to flip control.
This could be a bloodbath!!!
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