Poker

[chuchem]

This is not a machloikes, this is some not being able to grasp a mathematical concept.

+1

they will realize once they start betting after 15 times red, double up every time and by 25 its still red....

superflyer, I didnt expect this from you, you sound cleverer then this

[Shmelly]

@chuchem: you would be right, if someone sits at a roulette playing every spin....

I'm not playing black/red, but to give you an example (yes I know this is a machloikes in the gemoro): if someone would wait to have 15x red or black before placing on one of those, the chance for it to keep on falling another 10x on the same color are way smaller than sitting at a roulette which had nicely balanced black/red alternations.

This is what's known as the gambler's fallacy. Google it.

[SuperFlyer]

That exactly is the machlokes in the gemara, but if this fallacy were COMPLETELY true, and the chance would be going on being 1/2, you should have way way more times where black or red would be winner 20x in a row.

'Elo may', while it is true that that every move on itself is a 1/2 chance every time over again, the chance for a certain sequence isn't 1/2.

In other words, if you play it all on 1 move, yes, then you have a problem.

[Mocha]

In Venice on MS we put our 10 Euro chip on yud key vav key and walla! 
Doesn't get more Jewish than that!!

[AJK]

I also play poker and not, that luck can make you win very fast. If you have 2 outs and hit it you are lucky and won, but the players with the most skill win. Thats why by the WSOP and all other tournament mostly the same players make it to the top50 and are making big money in the long run. Everybody can win the WSOP with luck, but if a guy that has no skill plays 100 games against a good player with skill, the better guy will win 90 games

I agree that skill is a big component in poker. I didn't (and don't) agree that poker is ONLY skill.

Chess, on the other hand, would be a game that is entirely skill based. If I sat down to play Bobby Fischer 100 games of chess, I'd probably lose 101 times.

This is what's known as the gambler's fallacy. Google it.

+1, each individual throw, toss, spin, has the same mathematical odds as the one before it, except looking forward to a number of throws, tosses, or spins.

[Shmelly]

The gamblers' fallacy is really a machlokes in gemara? (I'm not being facetious, you just piqued my curiosity).

[Dan]

the same goes with blackjack, its impossible to beat the house. Yes, you can play smart, but you will always loose sooner or later

Definitely not true, the house advantage is very small in Blackjack (between .17-.6%) if you play with a basic strategy card, and with a little simple card counting you can easily get the advantage.  You can also get in trouble if you do it stupidly though.

[AJK]

A "little simple card counting?"

Isn't that like a "little simple nuclear bomb making?"

Do you know what's required to effectively count cards to sufficiently change the odds toward your favor?

[Shmelly]

Definitely not true, the house advantage is very small in Blackjack (between .17-.6%) if you play with a basic strategy card, and with a little simple card counting you can easily get the advantage.  You can also get in trouble if you do it stupidly though.

You can't get in trouble - I've been busted at 1 place and been with a friend who was busted at another. My friend was escorted out, I was given a warning. They didn't stop either of us from cashing in.

[Mikeoracle]

Card counting became much harder now that a lot of casinos started shuffling the deck when it is barely halfway through, making it very hard to get to a "hot" high card deck.

[Dan]

A "little simple card counting?"

Isn't that like a "little simple nuclear bomb making?"

Do you know what's required to effectively count cards to sufficiently change the odds toward your favor?

Yes, I do.
If you can keep track of low cards versus high cards in your head and one side is getting heavier (10+ differential is best) than the rest you'll know to bet less or bet a lot.

As said though, once they mix all bets are off.

[AJK]

Card counting became much harder now that a lot of casinos started shuffling the deck when it is barely halfway through, making it very hard to get to a "hot" high card deck.

+1, it ain't so simple.

[Dan]

Never said it was simple.  I said it was possible.
And in a game with a small house advantage of roughly half a percent you don't need too much to gain the advantage.

Versus roulette where the house has a 2.7% (in Europe) or 5.3% (in the US) advantage

[AJK]

Never said it was simple.  I said it was possible.

... and with a little simple card counting you can easily get the advantage...

 

[Dan]

Heh, busted
For me I find it simple and I enjoy doing it.  If you're not quick with numbers then it won't be simple, but practice will help.

[Shmelly]

My favorite games at the casino are Pai Gow Poker and Craps.

Pai Gow is great for when you have a small bankroll and you're with a buncha friends - your money lasts a while and when you hit the bonuses its amazing.

When you're on a roll in craps, especially as the shooter, there is no greater feeling to be had as a gambler.

[HelpMe]

Card counting became much harder now that a lot of casinos started shuffling the deck when it is barely halfway through, making it very hard to get to a "hot" high card deck.

Find a single deck game downtown and sit at third base. I don’t care if the shuffle after every hand!

[AJK]

Heh, busted
For me I find it simple and I enjoy doing it.  If you're not quick with numbers then it won't be simple, but practice will help.

If you haven't already, check out Bringing Down the House, and the movie based on it: 21.

I personally know one of the people that was involved in that whole scheme. Crazy.

[HelpMe]

If you're not quick with numbers then it won't be simple, but practice will help.

If you can't add/subtract 1 then you have bigger problems than card counting. 

[chuchem]

in any normal casino they use about 6 decks and shuffle the used cards every few hands so card counting is impossible. I dont care how much the odds are, but they are against you, so in the longrun you loose. Dont forget another player can screw up your odds, if he pulls when he should not and give the bank the card they need.... Dan, you cant beat it....

The chances of winning the lottery with 1 2 3 4 5 6 is the same with any other number you pick