Do the chasidim plan to vote for Hochul or Zeldin?

[TimT]

https://twitter.com/AlanKayFriedman/status/1586860451182379009

[YitzyS]

https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/#:~:text=Video%20Rav%20Yisroel%C2%A0%20Reisman%20host%20Lee%20Zeldin%20and%20gives%20him%20an%20endorsement%C2%A0

[Yehuda57]

https://twitter.com/AlanKayFriedman/status/1586860451182379009

"wields respect"

Argh.

[TimT]

https://twitter.com/UJCARE/status/1586944656771895296

[jj1000]

FWIU tons of frum yidden never vote in NY because they feel it doesn't count there.

Are there people that never vote, that are voting this election?

[koplonko]

FWIU tons of frum yidden never vote in NY because they feel it doesn't count there.

Are there people that never vote, that are voting this election?

There definitely are. There's also a difference between presidential elections and local elections

[Yehuda57]

FWIU tons of frum yidden never vote in NY because they feel it doesn't count there.

Are there people that never vote, that are voting this election?

Anecdotally, yes. Not sure if it's enough to tip the scales, but it's something.

[Dan]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/new-york/

Have they ever gotten a clearly favored prediction wrong? Can these last minute endorsements actually move the needle?

[Yehuda57]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/new-york/

Have they ever gotten a clearly favored prediction wrong? Can these last minute endorsements actually move the needle?

I think this was before the Yiddish vote Zeldin songs on whatsapp

[jj1000]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/new-york/

Have they ever gotten a clearly favored prediction wrong? Can these last minute endorsements actually move the needle?

If Zeldin wins, was that wrong?

They gave it a 3% chance not 0%

[Pony]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/new-york/

Have they ever gotten a clearly favored prediction wrong? Can these last minute endorsements actually move the needle?

Interesting that so many frum organizations went all out in a very public way for someone that only has a 3% chance of winning. Either they know something that we don’t or they don’t see how Hochul can be any worse than she already is that they would risk publicly supporting the opponent.

[CountValentine]

They gave it a 3% chance not 0%

Is it actually a 3% chance? The three times he is projected to win is by a narrow margin. I give him less than 1%.

[Yehuda57]

I'm genuinely curious if/how the polls are adjusting for the Zeldin swing in frum areas, which seems to be quite significant.

[CountValentine]

I'm genuinely curious if/how the polls are adjusting for the Zeldin swing in frum areas, which seems to be quite significant.

What percent of the overall vote would they be?

[Yehuda57]

Interesting that so many frum organizations went all out in a very public way for someone that only has a 3% chance of winning. Either they know something that we don’t or they don’t see how Hochul can be any worse than she already is that they would risk publicly supporting the opponent.

Hochul was running away with the race. The fact that it tightened to within 10 points was a big deal. Even if she wins, if the fum vote makes it close enough that she starts sweating, it shows Dems they can no longer take the Chassidish votes for granted.

What percent of the overall vote would they be?

Overall? This is just a guess, but maybe 1%? It doesn't seem like a lot, but for a complete swing from one party to another I think it is significant. But again, this is just guessing, I don't know about this stuff to know how much impact it is having.

[jj1000]

Overall? This is just a guess, but maybe 1%? It doesn't seem like a lot, but for a complete swing from one party to another I think it is significant. But again, this is just guessing, I don't know about this stuff to know how much impact it is having.

Could be much higher based on voter turnout.

[Something Fishy]

I've never seen people as worked up as this time around. The chinuch issue is something that everybody has an extreme personal interest in and it seems that a tremendous amount of people who don't normally vote will do so this time.

[CountValentine]

Overall? This is just a guess, but maybe 1%? It doesn't seem like a lot, but for a complete swing from one party to another I think it is significant. But again, this is just guessing, I don't know about this stuff to know how much impact it is having.

Unless something else is in play 1% will not matter in an election that was not close.

[Dan]

it seems that a tremendous amount of people who don't normally vote will do so this time.

Did they actually register to vote or are they making noise?

[Something Fishy]

Did they actually register to vote or are they making noise?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯