Author Topic: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?  (Read 31910 times)

Online aygart

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #160 on: March 12, 2023, 07:32:43 PM »
Does SIVB have ZERO left in the bank? Or they are just a little short, but cannot support a run on the bank?

If the government can pay for the hype today, it will recoup almost all the money later. No?

They may even have the full amount needed but not liquid enough. 2008 "bailout" was very profitable to the government.
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Offline Abey

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #161 on: March 12, 2023, 07:33:34 PM »
They may even have the full amount needed but not liquid enough. 2008 "bailout" was very profitable to the government.
’08 bailout also saved equity holders, very egregious

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #162 on: March 12, 2023, 07:33:38 PM »
after all assets sold at par I believe there’s supposed to be 6 B left unsure how much of that can actually be sold at par besides the treasury debt. Even good debt can’t support such a big influx to the market and some of those debt is not great

The Fed can hold to maturity collecting higher rates than they are paying out.
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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #163 on: March 12, 2023, 07:35:13 PM »
’08 bailout also saved equity holders, very egregious

TARP did that to an extent and so will the ability to sell at par. Those that went under not. Lesson: never be the first to go.
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Offline Abey

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #164 on: March 12, 2023, 07:39:39 PM »
TARP did that to an extent and so will the ability to sell at par. Those that went under not. Lesson: never be the first to go.
Not sure I agree. Equity holders are being wiped out today not all though as you mentioned

Offline shapsam

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #165 on: March 12, 2023, 07:39:48 PM »
What happens to Signature's fixed rate mortgages?

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #166 on: March 12, 2023, 07:39:59 PM »
Because of this administrations failures...
Surprised it took this long for someone to go there.
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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #167 on: March 12, 2023, 07:40:55 PM »
why? What was special about them? And what issues do they have now? Too focused on CRE?
too focused on a single sector. Also had long term maturity debt etc

If you look online you will see them as a major crypto bank. They viewed themselves as big in Healthcare and less so in Multifam, Retail RE, and CRE.

They were a very relationship based bank with one contact for all needs in a relationship. This is very beneficial when someone wants things viewed by overall relationship and not an individual LLC.
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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #168 on: March 12, 2023, 07:41:54 PM »
Not sure I agree. Equity holders are being wiped out today not all though as you mentioned

So did the equityholders of the first batch then.
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Offline liosac

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #169 on: March 12, 2023, 07:42:37 PM »
after all assets sold at par I believe there’s supposed to be 6 B left unsure how much of that can actually be sold at par besides the treasury debt. Even good debt can’t support such a big influx to the market and some of those debt is not great
Lots of commercial debt from Signature is likely technically in default of DCSR ratios so they could technically act on that but I can’t imagine them doing that to raise funds.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2023, 07:45:42 PM by liosac »

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #170 on: March 12, 2023, 07:42:51 PM »
Surprised it took this long for someone to go there.

The first thing didn't stick so...

That discussion can go in the burnt toast thread.
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Offline liosac

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #171 on: March 12, 2023, 07:43:52 PM »
What happens to Signature's fixed rate mortgages?
Fixed rate? Nothing. The securities can be sold but the fixed rate loan won’t change for the life of the loan.

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #172 on: March 12, 2023, 07:43:58 PM »
Lots of commercial debt from Signature is likely technically in default of DCSR ratios so they could technically act on that but I can imagine them doing that to raise funds.

Which can hit a number of heimishe industries very hard.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #173 on: March 12, 2023, 07:45:15 PM »
Surprised it took this long for someone to go there.

Everyone blaming the regulators for issues that were obvious in hindsight, but SVB’s problems were in plain sight for anyone to see in their public financials, yet it took until last week for anyone to raise alarm. Obviously lessons learned all around.

Guess the question is - what are the regulations that will prevent this sort of risk mismanagement going forward?
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Offline liosac

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #174 on: March 12, 2023, 07:46:11 PM »
Which can hit a number of heimishe industries very hard.
Typo. Doubt they will go there.

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #175 on: March 12, 2023, 07:47:44 PM »
Everyone blaming the regulators for issues that were obvious in hindsight, but SVB’s problems were in plain sight for anyone to see in their public financials, yet it took until last week for anyone to raise alarm. Obviously lessons learned all around.

Guess the question is - what are the regulations that will prevent this sort of risk mismanagement going forward?

Not familiar with SVB but SBNY has been spoken about for months.
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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #176 on: March 12, 2023, 07:49:42 PM »
FEDS: If you want to be in good shape and make the right decisions, ask all your questions here on DDF, We will make ourselves available for you for the next couple of days, so act smart

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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #177 on: March 12, 2023, 07:54:50 PM »
Everyone blaming the regulators for issues that were obvious in hindsight, but SVB’s problems were in plain sight for anyone to see in their public financials, yet it took until last week for anyone to raise alarm. Obviously lessons learned all around.
Why didn't everyone short the stock if they knew about it?  :)
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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #178 on: March 12, 2023, 07:56:41 PM »
Why didn't everyone short the stock if they knew about it?  :)

I am sure some made lots of money on negative bets. If the issues didn't reach insolvency those bets may have eventually been wiped out.
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Re: Banks Failing: Is It 2008 Again?
« Reply #179 on: March 12, 2023, 08:01:00 PM »
I am sure some made lots of money on negative bets.
I am 100% positive they did while I watched from the sidelines.
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