I genuinely don't understand this question, and in my opinion, it does not align with my Amunah standards.
Don't you believe that everything, no matter how random it seems, is actually orchestrated by Hashem? So, yes, if G-D wouldn't have taken us out, we would absolutely still be there. And if Pharaoh would have expelled us, that would actually be Hashem taking us out of there.
In my opinion, this question implies that throughout history, when massive empires came and went, it wasn't from Hashem...
This passage teaches us the foundation of Emunah: “Nothing happens without Hashem’s doing”.
Of course massive empires come and go from Hashem.
The question is though that the בעל ההגדה seems certain that without the supernatural יציאת מצרים with all its accompanying miracles, we would still be there. How does he know that? Other nations were enslaved and liberated without this whole shebang in a much more על פי דרך הטבע way
1) Why can’t the Haggada be the source? The Author of Haggadah according to many was Moshe Rabeinu or Eliyahu Hanovi or the Rokech
2) There are many explanations on this verse with the most classic mentioned upthread that we would have fallen in to the shaar nun, and even if we were to leave, a part of Egyptian culture/DNA would be engraved in us forever. Another classic along those lines, Hashem did not want us to ever be indebted to the pharaoh who released us (emphasis on the words “mishubadim”)
3) Hashem could have taken us out in a natural way as well and we did not need the shebang, the Haggadah doesn’t say otherwise. The reason for the great open miracles is as explained in the famous Ramban in parshas Bo that the source of our emunah comes from Yetzias Mitzraim, and one must realize that nothing is happenstance, all random happenings are miracles just like when Hashem took us out from Mitzraim.