Israel vs. Iran And Proxies: War Discussion Master Thread

[EliJelly]

It’s definitely going to be a situation to navigate, still better than anything Biden/Harris could bring to the table.

I think Biden has a soft spot for Israel but is constrained by his party's wokeism. Kamala doesn't have even that, so definitely better for Israel but it's a different ballgame to navigate Trump like you said.

[Just A Jew]

I think Biden has a soft spot for Israel but is constrained by his party's wokeism. Kamala doesn't have even that, so definitely better for Israel but it's a different ballgame to navigate Trump like you said.

Trump just likes to win deals. Considering the relationship the US and Israel have is widely considered a win for the US by those who just look at data and ignore public sentiment, I don't think Israel has anything to worry about.

[EliJelly]

Trump just likes to win deals. Considering the relationship the US and Israel have is widely considered a win for the US by those who just look at data and ignore public sentiment, I don't think Israel has anything to worry about.

Need I remind you Trump's outbursts of "It has to stop, the killing has to stop" and "Israel is losing the PR war"? Trump is unpredictable and he's not ready to sacrifice an ounce for anyone else's favor, let alone feeling ignored or disrespected. Saying Israel has nothing to worry about is very naïve.

[Chuchum Ainer]

Need I remind you Trump's outbursts of "It has to stop, the killing has to stop" and "Israel is losing the PR war"? Trump is unpredictable and he's not ready to sacrifice an ounce for anyone else's favor, let alone feeling ignored or disrespected. Saying Israel has nothing to worry about is very naïve.

This I agree with

[Just A Jew]

Need I remind you Trump's outbursts of "It has to stop, the killing has to stop" and "Israel is losing the PR war"? Trump is unpredictable and he's not ready to sacrifice an ounce for anyone else's favor, let alone feeling ignored or disrespected. Saying Israel has nothing to worry about is very naïve.

He's been clear that he wants it to stop... with decisive Israeli victories. And he's not wrong about Israel losing the PR war. Don't know why Israel should be nervous about him saying that.

I don't think he's going to give Israel carte blanche, nor should he. I just think that ultimately Israel shouldn't be seriously concerned that he will be a liability to their agenda (security or financial), and definitely not any more than any leader of any other country or any potential leader of this country.

[gozalim]

I think trump would welcome a quick harsh decisive Israeli victory. something the current administration would never allow (Israel is allowed to defend itself, but never to win)

[EliJelly]

He's been clear that he wants it to stop... with decisive Israeli victories. And he's not wrong about Israel losing the PR war. Don't know why Israel should be nervous about him saying that.

Trump is like the mafia boss demanding a certain result and not giving leeway based on hardship etc. "Get it done asap. Too hard? You better figure it out".
He expressed frustration how long this takes and how bad it looks in the world, this is not something Israel likes to hear. It's not like Israel has some magic to turn Gaza into a pro Israel paradise in a matter of days, it's a long tough process with no certain outcome. (Unlike what some here believe that if only Israel wouldn't care about the world's opinion they'd "get the job done" immediately, with some abstract method other than carpet bombing Gaza).

I just think that ultimately Israel shouldn't be seriously concerned that he will be a liability to their agenda (security or financial), and definitely not any more than any leader of any other country or any potential leader of this country.

They shouldn't be concerned about any other country providing them free opinions, they'd better care though about the single country providing them the lifeline to fight this war.

[Just A Jew]

Nothing you said makes me think Israel should be concerned. If anything, Trump wanting faster results is more likely to have negative repercussions for others in the ME, as he may be more inclined to take off the ever-present US restraints to get the result he wants.

[EliJelly]

Nothing you said makes me think Israel should be concerned. If anything, Trump wanting faster results is more likely to have negative repercussions for others in the ME, as he may be more inclined to take off the ever-present US restraints to get the result he wants.

Would you be so kind and spell out how Israel can finish this war fast and with a "decisive victory" if only America would allow them to?

[Just A Jew]

Would you be so kind and spell out how Israel can finish this war fast and with a "decisive victory" if only America would allow them to?

Hit what/who they need to hit in Iran? Take out heads of terror groups residing in other countries? Be less conservative in worrying about collateral damage when striking targets in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank? Be more aggressive attacking funding arms of the terror groups? I'm not an expert by any means, but I'm sure there are at least a dozen ways the US can help facilitate a quicker end to the conflict - complete public backing, actual military support, back-channel efforts, ect.

[Just A Jew]

I'm by no means a Trump fan or apologist. I just think that things we, as Americans, feel are Trump's weaknesses, can turn out to be in Israel's favor.

[EliJelly]

Hit what/who they need to hit in Iran? Take out heads of terror groups residing in other countries? Be less conservative in worrying about collateral damage when striking targets in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank? Be more aggressive attacking funding arms of the terror groups? I'm not an expert by any means, but I'm sure there are at least a dozen ways the US can help facilitate a quicker end to the conflict - complete public backing, actual military support, back-channel efforts, ect.

That all makes sense for Iran backed militias like Hezbollah, Houthis etc. Being much tougher on Iran (though he'll avoid war at all costs) can impact Iran and their groups to relent. Hamas at this point is not living off Iran's support, they're dragging this war and exhausting Israel on their own. There is no way to eradicate them fast and certainly no way to reverse their people's indoctrinated hate to Israel in a quick matter. They live more on the world's empathy for their plight and Trump expressed that he's concerned about that too. Israel is doing pretty good on other fronts, both with the tactical war and on the PR scene, where they're struggling more is Gaza, and Trumps showed he has no patience for that war. 

[Just A Jew]

Hamas at this point is not living off Iran's support, they're dragging this war and exhausting Israel on their own. There is no way to eradicate them fast and certainly no way to reverse their people's indoctrinated hate to Israel in a quick matter. They live more on the world's empathy for their plight and Trump expressed that he's concerned about that too. Israel is doing pretty good on other fronts, both with the tactical war and on the PR scene, where they're struggling more is Gaza, and Trumps showed he has no patience for that war.

Take out heads of terror groups residing in other countries? Be less conservative in worrying about collateral damage when striking targets in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank? Be more aggressive attacking funding arms of the terror groups?

Hamas is not surviving by themselves. They are getting plenty of help, including the US leash on Gaza operations and constant threats to cut off supplies/funds. It also wouldn't surprise me if their ability to hit Hamas and Hamas financial aids in certain countries has been heavily restricted by US  behind the scenes.

[EliJelly]

Hamas is not surviving by themselves. They are getting plenty of help, including the US leash on Gaza operations and constant threats to cut off supplies/funds. It also wouldn't surprise me if their ability to hit Hamas and Hamas financial aids in certain countries has been heavily restricted by US  behind the scenes.

We can speculate all we want on what goes on behind the scenes as we have no idea of knowing, but personally I don't believe that the current administration hinders any effort to cut off financial aid for Hamas and the like. They express concern for the civilian death toll to appease the left and maybe talk and implement restrictions on those specific weapons. IMO the idea that the US puts heavy restrictions on Israel to directly target Hamas and their support chains are just baseless claims and a product of pro Israel fanatics expressing their frustration on Biden for not showering Israel with the blind support they'd want to see.

[AsherO]

We can speculate all we want on what goes on behind the scenes as we have no idea of knowing, but personally I don't believe that the current administration hinders any effort to cut off financial aid for Hamas and the like. They express concern for the civilian death toll to appease the left and maybe talk and implement restrictions on those specific weapons. IMO the idea that the US puts heavy restrictions on Israel to directly target Hamas and their support chains are just baseless claims and a product of pro Israel fanatics expressing their frustration on Biden for not showering Israel with the blind support they'd want to see.

Have you read Blinken’s Oct. 13th letter in its entirety?

[EliJelly]

Have you read Blinken’s Oct. 13th letter in its entirety?

On allowing humanitarian aid to enter Gaza and otherwise "US military aid could be in jeopardy".
I noted their concern for civilians. Trump indicated he shares these concerns too and how bad it looks for Israel.

[Just A Jew]

We can speculate all we want on what goes on behind the scenes as we have no idea of knowing, but personally I don't believe that the current administration hinders any effort to cut off financial aid for Hamas and the like.

Personally, I do. I think Turkey being in NATO and delicate US relationships with Qatar and other ME countries hinder Israel's full capabilities target them. Will Trump be any better? Maybe not. But I don't think he'll be any worse, and there's a chance those qualities of his that irk you may be beneficial in those instances.

They express concern for the civilian death toll to appease the left and maybe talk and implement restrictions on those specific weapons. IMO the idea that the US puts heavy restrictions on Israel to directly target Hamas and their support chains are just baseless claims and a product of pro Israel fanatics expressing their frustration on Biden for not showering Israel with the blind support they'd want to see.

I may hear about it from the right, but I also hear about it from the left, in the context that the US isn't doing enough. See Rafah for a primary example.

[Just A Jew]

On allowing humanitarian aid to enter Gaza and otherwise "US military aid could be in jeopardy".
I noted their concern for civilians. Trump indicated he shares these concerns too and how bad it looks for Israel.

If it came to a public letter, what was said in private over the prior 12 months? When an ally resorts to a public letter, it's not the first conversation, and it's probably the mildest those threats have been articulated, because the US needs to be mindful of PR, too. Conversations behind closed doors don't have those PR concerns.

Also, note Trump's caviat in his concern. It looks bad for Israel. He doesn't share the same concerns, most certainly not on the same level as the current admin. He frames it as a PR issue, not a humanitarian issue or possible genocide.

[gozalim]

The current "generals plan" in north Gaza is much more effective and quick when combined with restricted entry of aid etc.
At the moment they are allowing in aid there on American insistence

[AsherO]

The current "generals plan" in north Gaza is much more effective and quick when combined with restricted entry of aid etc.
At the moment they are allowing in aid there on American insistence

I probably posted this here already.

The northernmost tip of Gaza (Jibaliya and points north) are cut off with a corridor:
https://x.com/BenTzionMacales/status/1853855226077622469

Per the post quoted in that post, It's estimated there are only 1-2k people (including both terrorists and civilians) in that area. The IDF plans to completely clear this area of any people.

I don't believe any aid is entering this area for a while now, and civilans are trickling out. It's a mini-general's plan that's being successfully executed.