Israel vs. Iran And Proxies: War Discussion Master Thread

[Just A Jew]

IMO wishful thinking.
especially when you consider that Trump MHM has specifically wanted lebanon done ASAP and done before he enters,
he will certainly not appreciate IL blowing this one up again as a welcome present to his entering office.

Additionally:
IL had listed a few final 'issues' with this deal, that they now seem to have conceded. such as inclusion of FR. also, relgating their 'freedom to act' to a side-agreement

If the truce actually ends it, then what's the problem? And if it doesn't, like you said, His Majesty wants it done, so Israel will then finish it.

[ExGingi]

https://x.com/jonathan_elk/status/1861009096427585613

[gozalim]

If the truce actually ends it, then what's the problem? And if it doesn't, like you said, His Majesty wants it done, so Israel will then finish it.

Thinking that on day 61, IL can just restart 'cleanup' is wishful thinking
whatever violations they ignore in days 1-59 (and they will, by choice or by force)...

[Chuchum Ainer]

Tl;Dr, Bibi knows best. Or is moshiach

[AsherO]

I'm still off the opinion that it's too early for a deal, as long as Hizbullah still exists as a functional group and is part of the Lebanese government. However, there are strong differences to this and other peace agreements.

1) Israel is not really conceding anything. No prisoner swaps, no territorial changes, etc.
2) Israel is in charge of their own security and Lebanon does not have complete sovereignty over their border in that Israel can go in and take care of threats with impunity (much like they do now in Yehuda v'Shomron).
3) This doesn't allow terrorists to take a victory lap, as they are giving up while Israel is still in Gaza, the whole point of their attacks was that they would not stop until the IDF was out of Gaza.

Regardless of what it’s officially being called, it’s not a peace agreement, it’s a truce that might not last that long.

I agree with the rest of what you wrote.

[dovy2]

If Hezbollah will indeed move their weapons back (ye right), why do they care if IL remains in south Lebanon during the 60 days?
asking for a friend

[ExGingi]

Tl;Dr, Bibi knows best. Or is moshiach

Quite misleading the way you posted that, as if that is what I wrote.

Also this "Moshiach" cynical nonsense is totally out of place.

The bottom line is:

To anyone that is bold enough to express an opinion, I ask the question as to when they found out about the Eid-Al-Beeper operation.

Anyone who had no clue or knowledge about that operation prior to it being carried out, is obviously lacking important information in order to have an opinion other than trust or distrust of those in the know who call the shots.

Or for a TL;DR version of that: Don't be a Zionist. Some humility is in order.

[yelped]

Can we agree to have a meeting about it in 60 days like in Chelm?

[AsherO]

Seeing reports that the current ceasefire agreement would have a small number of US military servicemen on the ground in Lebanon monitoring compliance, this sounds like a bad idea.

[Yehuda57]

Regardless of what it’s officially being called, it’s not a peace agreement, it’s a truce that might not last that long.

I agree with the rest of what you wrote.

Cool, because I don't even agree with it. Looking at number 2 again, once they pull out, they're no longer in charge of their own security, even if they can reenter on paper.

And any deal at all will be twisted as a victory by the enemy

[Chester7]

Seeing reports that the current ceasefire agreement would have a small number of US military servicemen on the ground in Lebanon monitoring compliance, this sounds like a bad idea.

It will stop Israel from doing much, but highly doubtful Trump will keep them there. They would be a target in an unfriendly place.

[Chuchum Ainer]

Quite misleading the way you posted that, as if that is what I wrote.

Also this "Moshiach" cynical nonsense is totally out of place.

The bottom line is:

Or for a TL;DR version of that: Don't be a Zionist. Some humility is in order.

Honestly I didn't realize the English was a translation of the tweet, I assumed it was your words. My apologies.

That said, you posted the tweet, are you posting it because you agree with it? If yes:

...

At the same time, we must understand that in the end the decisive judgment is reserved for the leader. Parable What is it similar to? A surgeon who decides to stop the operation against all logic. Since we do not have the indices of the patient, and even if we know it is not certain that we will understand their meaning, there is a barrier in front of us from expressing a firm position.
...
The public's position is critical in giving support to the leadership, but in the end - it is he who has to make the most professional decision.

Anyone who had no clue or knowledge about that operation prior to it being carried out, is obviously lacking important information in order to have an opinion other than trust or distrust of those in the know who call the shots.

What a wonderful mashal. What if the surgeon is known to be squeamish and to stop his operations prematurely? And has cause the deaths of many that way? Why should you have trust in those who call the shots?

There seems to be a sudden new idea, that while it might seem to us to be wrong, we should trust the professionals (and not even discuss it on DDF, cuz our opinion doesn't matter)
If that's what you always say, like during all the other hostage/ceasefire negotiations, fine. But if not, this chiddush is unwarranted in this case. Why would you trust Bibi in this case all of a sudden?

(re the beepers, whats the kesher? You didn't have to know about the specific tactic to know that it was long overdue for the Gov to do something about the Northern threat.

[Chuchum Ainer]

We all recall the backstabbing by Obama at the UN on his way out. The hostile forces need to be kept at bay until January 20th, 2025.

Can you elaborate on this one? What massive damage was done by Obama at the UN? Big chutzpah, sure. But what practical issues arose?

[Yehuda57]

To anyone that is bold enough to express an opinion,

Am I the only one who doesn't understand this post? Shrug.gif

[ExGingi]

https://x.com/shuki_mishol/status/1861419876612526374

[ExGingi]

Am I the only one who doesn't understand this post? Shrug.gif

Nah. I am pretty sure it is common to anyone who shares the sentiment that

I still don't know if I voted for who I really wanted to.

[NTorch]

Can you elaborate on this one? What massive damage was done by Obama at the UN? Big chutzpah, sure. But what practical issues arose?

From an article on Arutz Sheva a few days ago

"The template for ignoring the will of the American electorate by enabling the United Nations to do the dirty work of a lame-duck President was written by President Obama. In late December 2016, he was photographed playing golf while his UN Ambassador Samantha Power surreptitiously finalized a Security Council resolution that upended decades of bipartisan support for a negotiated settlement of key issues in the Arab-Israeli conflict," she noted.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399443

[Chester7]

From an article on Arutz Sheva a few days ago
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399443

I think his question was practically what difference did it make.

[ExGingi]

I think his question was practically what difference did it make.

That question is reserved for the exclusive use of HRC.

[ExGingi]

https://x.com/hahussain/status/1861421121372873046

For those that can't hit "translate post":

From what was leaked to the Hebrew and Arab media, the agreement to end the war in ⁧‫#لبنان‬⁩ can be summarized as follows:
‎A ceasefire will be implemented between ⁧‫#إسرائيل‬⁩ and Hezbollah, which is loyal to Islamic Iran, for a period of 60 days, during which the Lebanese army will disarm the area extending from the Litani River south to the border between the two countries. The Lebanese army will also implement the provisions of Resolution 1701, including preventing Hezbollah from importing or manufacturing any weapons, and monitoring the land border with Syria, seaports and airports of Lebanon to prevent the entry of any arms shipments to the Lebanese militia.
‎If Israel determines that the Lebanese army has exclusive responsibility for weapons in Lebanon (and therefore for their use), Israel will withdraw its forces within 60 days. Israel is unlikely to reduce the readiness of its forces or return the residents of the north before that deadline. Moreover, the current agreement will be voted on only by the cabinet, making it a security issue. After the 60 days have passed, the agreement may be presented to the Israeli government as a whole for approval as a permanent agreement.
‎To maintain the situation that will result from the above arrangements (keeping the south demilitarized and preventing Hezbollah from acquiring any new weapons), there are two mechanisms: one for immediate risks and a second for less urgent risks.
‎In the event of immediate danger, if Israel detects Hezbollah moving any missile launch pads or attempting to plant explosive devices near the border, Israeli fighters will destroy these targets immediately without coordination with any party (in accordance with a bilateral guarantee document with America).
‎Less urgent threats, such as weapons shipments en route to Hezbollah, could be destroyed by Israeli fighter jets on Syrian territory (and Assad is expected to prevent such shipments from entering his territory).
‎If the shipments cross into Lebanese territory, or if Hezbollah rebuilds its weapons production plants, Israel will request, through the five-member committee to be established according to the ceasefire agreement between the two countries, that the Lebanese army confiscate these shipments or destroy the factories. If the Lebanese army fails to do so, Israeli fighter jets will act. The committee to monitor and ensure the implementation of the agreement’s provisions will be headed by a five-member committee headed by America (or the US Central Command) and including the chiefs of staff of the Israeli, Lebanese, and French armies and the UNIFIL peacekeeping force.