Israel vs. Iran And Proxies: War Discussion Master Thread

[Kobe Bryant]

Hopefully you’re right and Israel is just playing the game and buying time.

It is a Hudna until after inauguration day not a ceasefire.

ETA: I am not certain about the outcome.

[Yehuda57]

Netanyahu has said himself, once you retreat, you aren't going back in even if the deal gives you the right to.

[ExGingi]

Netanyahu has said himself, once you retreat, you aren't going back in even if the deal gives you the right to.

If Israel determines that the Lebanese army has exclusive responsibility for weapons in Lebanon (and therefore for their use), Israel will withdraw its forces within 60 days.

[Yehuda57]

Cool story.

If Israel had once in it's history done such a deal, fine. But based on what single historic occurrence can you even dream that as being reality?

[ExGingi]

Cool story.

If Israel had once in it's history done such a deal, fine. But based on what single historic occurrence can you even dream that as being reality?

How many times in history were they faced with a failed hostile outgoing admin (that is desperate to show something) and a favorable (with history to prove it, and favorable appointments) admin incoming in less than 60 days?

Again, we can argue until we are blue or red in the face. Neither YOU nor I have have the complete set of facts and considerations available to us, nor have either of us been in such a position, to be qualified to pass judgment. It does seem like since Shmini Atzeres of last year Netanyahu became less accommodating to the Left/West delusional aspirations.

[yelped]

I think this has potential to be something big if the US really cared for accountability:

https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1861274037617332247

[aygart]

https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1861480622792827121

[ExGingi]

I don't read Danish nor do I follow Danish media. This was linked as a source for an X post I saw.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/moerklagt/tysk-aklager-hamas-har-haft-vaabenlager-i-danmark-vaere-klar-til-mulige

German prosecutor: Hamas has had weapons storage in Denmark to be ready for possible attacks
The Hamas movement has had several weapons stockpiles in Europe, according to the indictment from Germany's federal prosecutor.

The article has been updated at 15:36 with a comment from the Police Intelligence Service (PET) and information that the supposed Danish weapons stockpile was emptied in 2019.

The Palestinian Hamas movement has had secret weapons depots in several European countries, including Denmark.

This is the accusation from the German federal prosecutor, who has filed charges in a case against four suspected Hamas members in Germany.

- Some time ago, Hamas created depots in the ground with weapons in various European countries to keep them ready for possible attacks against Jewish institutions in Europe, the federal prosecutor states in a statement .

According to the German federal prosecutor, one of the European weapons depots that Hamas allegedly had in Europe was in Denmark.

It also appears that the warehouse was emptied in the summer of 2019, during which one of the defendants transported a gun from the weapons warehouse to Germany during the summer.

DR has no information about where in Denmark the weapons store must have been.

Among the possible attack targets mentioned by the German federal prosecutor are the Israeli embassy in Berlin, the American Ramstein air base and the area around Tempelhof Airport in Berlin.

Also mentions warehouses in Poland and Bulgaria
According to the statement, another weapons cache was discovered in Bulgaria in the spring of 2019. Here, both ammunition and firearms, including a Kalashnikov, were found.

According to the federal prosecutor, one of the accused visited the Bulgarian weapons depot again in 2023, while all four accused are accused of having traveled to Poland several times between June and December 2023 to find a weapons depot there.

According to the federal prosecutor, they did not succeed in finding the weapons warehouse.

According to the federal prosecutor, the four suspects have held "important positions" in the movement with direct connections to leaders of the movement's military wing.

Hamas is on the terrorist list of both the EU and the US.

The suspects were arrested in Germany and the Netherlands last December and remain in custody.

DR is working to get answers to how the four men relate to the indictment.

In Denmark, the Police Intelligence Service (PET) states that the service does not comment on pending criminal cases in other countries.

- However, we can state that we are, as always, in close contact with partners abroad - including relevant authorities in Germany, says PET.

In addition, PET refers to a previous assessment, from which it appears that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East can potentially "introduce threat actors who have not previously been relevant in a Danish terrorist context, including the Palestinian group Hamas".

[AsherO]

I don't read Danish nor do I follow Danish media. This was linked as a source for an X post I saw.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/moerklagt/tysk-aklager-hamas-har-haft-vaabenlager-i-danmark-vaere-klar-til-mulige

Can you please check the url? it isn’t loading (error 404)

[AsherO]

Again, we can argue until we are blue or red in the face. Neither YOU nor I have have the complete set of facts and considerations available to us, nor have either of us been in such a position, to be qualified to pass judgment. It does seem like since Shmini Atzeres of last year Netanyahu became less accommodating to the Left/West delusional aspirations.

It’s quite clear there were significant considerations that aren’t being shared with the public, as alluded to here:
https://x.com/yinonmagal/status/1861544489099370983?s=46

[UKinNYS]

https://www.cruz.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/sen-ted-cruz-statement-on-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire

Key Quote: “I am deeply disturbed both by reports that Obama-Biden officials exerted enormous pressure on our Israeli allies to accept this ceasefire and by how those officials are characterizing Israel's obligations. This pressure and these statements are further efforts to undermine Israel and constrain the incoming Trump administration. Obama-Biden officials pressured our Israeli allies into accepting the ceasefire by withholding weapons they needed to defend themselves and counter Hezbollah, and by threatening to facilitate a further, broader, binding international arms embargo through the United Nations. Obama-Biden officials are already trying to use Israel's acceptance of this ceasefire to ensure that Hezbollah and other Iranian terrorist groups remain intact across Lebanon, and to limit Israel's future freedom of action and self-defense. Administration officials, including Secretary of State Blinken, today even downplayed Israel's right under the ceasefire to strike terrorist groups in Lebanon when those groups pose imminent threats." 

[ExGingi]

Can you please check the url? it isn’t loading (error 404)

https://t.co/PgqeEWJReL

In any event, I picked it up from this tweet in French:
https://x.com/Fundji3/status/1861470730245886387

Though I see she now posted an English tweet about this with a link to TOI.
https://x.com/Fundji3/status/1861510565522481261

[ExGingi]

It’s quite clear there were significant considerations that aren’t being shared with the public, as alluded to here:

To think otherwise is infantile.

[Yehuda57]

To think otherwise is infantile.

That's almost always the case, so you can never opine on anything?

You claim Netanyahu has been so amazing this time round, I don't think the facts over the past year+ bear that out at all. It was Netanyahu who allowed almost 100,000 of his citizens to remain homeless for more than a year knowing full well that he had the capability of doing to Hezbollah since the beeper attack since October 8th.

It was Netanyahu who delayed the war for 6 months when the entire world knows that time is the biggest enemy of an army reliant on reservists. This ties into the first point as well.

I've detailed other blunders numerous times upthread, and that doesn't even take into account that October 7th happened on his watch and was the result of his decades long Gaza policy.

Bibi is as narcissistic as it comes. His political survival remains his sole objective. You rail against the kochi votzem yadi attitude a lot, but seem to have massive blindspots with Bibi, it's guess it's because you hate his opponents more.

[Chuchum Ainer]

How many times in history were they faced with a failed hostile outgoing admin (that is desperate to show something) and a favorable (with history to prove it, and favorable appointments) admin incoming in less than 60 days?

Again, we can argue until we are blue or red in the face. Neither YOU nor I have have the complete set of facts and considerations available to us, nor have either of us been in such a position, to be qualified to pass judgment. It does seem like since Shmini Atzeres of last year Netanyahu became less accommodating to the Left/West delusional aspirations.

Er.... worrying about the outgoing and incoming admins is the very definition of accommodating the west.

[AsherO]

Ceasefire is officially in affect, also this funny tidbit:

https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1861589007139823753

[gozalim]

two things can be true at once,
the fact that Bibi has not been nearly as tough as he should be in putting israel's פיקוח נפש needs above western noise, e.g. has postponed important moves etc. does not negate that as @ExGingi likes to point out, that Bibi has done a better job of minimizing the damage of western pressure than anyone else in decades, by miles.
That still doesn't give me nearly as much trust in his judgment and '4D chess'. Unfortunately much more likely that he's failing this: https://x.com/Enduring_Peace/status/1861162521140314575

[yelped]

A more positive spin on things. IMHO, he seems to be stuck in the pre Oct 7 mindset of "containing" enemies. Some interesting comments regarding the availability of ammunition:

https://x.com/Saul_Sadka/status/1861441412085973288

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1861441412085973288.html

[ExGingi]

That's almost always the case, so you can never opine on anything?

You may opine on whatever you wish, whenever you wish. In a case where there are highly confidential tactical and strategical security considerations, in a multi-front war, opining on a strategic move while KNOWING that many pieces of the puzzle are unknown to me, is futile.

You claim Netanyahu has been so amazing this time round, I don't think the facts over the past year+ bear that out at all. It was Netanyahu who allowed almost 100,000 of his citizens to remain homeless for more than a year knowing full well that he had the capability of doing to Hezbollah since the beeper attack since October 8th.

So are you trying to say that Netanyahu should have ordered the beeper attack on Nov. 9, 2023? Or are you saying it should have been done at a different date?

Are you aware that Netanyahu is fighting an eight-(or more)-front war? (Gaza, Lebanon, Judea & Samaria, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Israeli fifth column, and a hostile US (deep) State Department).

Resources are limited and need to be deployed in the most efficient way. I wouldn't want to be in his shoes!

Keeping so many Israelis out of their homes for so long is terrible. Unfortunately when one is in the midst of an existential war, there might not be any good choices.

It was Netanyahu who delayed the war for 6 months when the entire world knows that time is the biggest enemy of an army reliant on reservists. This ties into the first point as well.

Again, do you have all the data that was considered in making the decisions? Where the Gaza operation was up to? What troops and munitions are available? What intelligence information is available? What behind the scenes negotiations are going on with the major ally, and what political considerations are relevant to those? Having to deal with a powerful, deeply embedded fifth column (did anyone say Gallant?) that tries to influence US and world opinions and actions against the best interests of Israel.

I've detailed other blunders numerous times upthread, and that doesn't even take into account that October 7th happened on his watch and was the result of his decades long Gaza policy.

I'm not sure which blunders you are referring to, but I beg you to show anyone who did or would do a better job under the circumstances.

Bibi's biggest problem is that he tries to respect and conform to laws and established institutions. Not everyone can pull off a disregard of those and keep on going like Putin, Xi, Haminei, or Kim.

Unfortunately he inherited terrible situations and agreements (he was opposed to the Gaza "disengagement" and resigned from the government because of it), and he feels bound by them. He believes in democracy and democratic institutions, even if those have been hijacked by Bolsheviks, as per the Soviet strategy described by Yuri Bezmenov.

Bibi is as narcissistic as it comes. His political survival remains his sole objective. You rail against the kochi votzem yadi attitude a lot, but seem to have massive blindspots with Bibi, it's guess it's because you hate his opponents more.

Ranking Bibi's level of narcissism is subjective.

If you think that "his political survival remains his sole objective" that is an indication that the Bolshevik propaganda managed to brainwash you too.

I am fully aware, and am extremely critical of Bibi's כוחי ועוצם ידי attitude, and have derided people for reading or promoting his book (I started reading it and dropped it in disgust when I saw that Zionist attitude in the first few pages).

All of that notwithstanding, I see him as the most competent, capable, and honest person on the scene.

I have no respect for any of his "opponents" who constantly display their envy, hatred and incompetence. If the opposition would put someone like Einat Wilff to run against him, then it would be a case of a left-wing Zionist vs a right-wing Zionist, but in the past two decades those that ran against him were not ideologically motivated, it has been non-stop envy and hatred.

And finally, I don't see him (or Trump) as some kind of Messiah, much less as infallible, but on balance, the combination of Bibi and Trump seems like a good hand to be dealt.

[Yehuda57]

So are you trying to say that Netanyahu should have ordered the beeper attack on Nov. 9, 2023? Or are you saying it should have been done at a different date?

Even earlier. They were far more prepared for the Lebanon war than the Gaza war. When Hezbollah attacked on October 8th, that was the time to hit back, when reservists where reporting at 125% and not 75%.

The delay in continuing on to Rafah is also quite well documented. There were no major changes in those 6 months. The same plan could have been done earlier.

Essentially, you're picking Bibi's side over Gallant in each of these arguments. Now, I get why you don't like Gallant, but I don't see how in these *particular* instances his view was less in line with the yesodos of prioritizing life saving military operations over playing appeasing politics.