Israel vs. Iran And Proxies: War Discussion Master Thread

[JMHO]

What about the hostages? How will the army engineers prevent any casualties to the hostages who are being held in the tunnels?

These are difficult decisions that the government & army must make
I can't think of an easy way out here...

[yawn]

For the most part they probably won't and it's heartbreaking.  But they will prevent Hamas from killing thousands more

It’s one thing to prioritise the war over negotiating for their release, which I fully agree with. But to actively kill the hostages, aside from how awful that optic is, doesn’t seem like it makes any sense. 

Eta: I’m not attacking the idf, I’m saying it doesn’t make sense they’re doing that, so they gotta have something planned.

[JMHO]

It’s one thing to prioritise the war over negotiating for their release, which I fully agree with. But to actively kill the hostages, aside from how awful that optic is, doesn’t seem like it makes any sense. 

Eta: I’m not attacking the idf, I’m saying it doesn’t make sense they’re doing that, so they gotta have something planned.

What's your proposal?

[tzifanya54]

They may be lying to the public about not going in to the tunnels. On the other hand if there is no longer any gain for Hamas (IE their defeat is imminent) they will almost for sure kill the hostages themselves.

[yawn]

What's your proposal?

Hope and pray that the God puts a proposal in the minds of the people who get paid to answer that question.
My only theory is that Hamas obviously wants the hostages alive, or they’d already be dead. So will the threat of Hamas leadership losing their only bargaining chip prompt them to move hostages to somewhere less threatened? Which might make a rescue mission easier?

[tzifanya54]

Hope and pray that the God puts a proposal in the minds of the people who get paid to answer that question.
My only theory is that Hamas obviously wants the hostages alive, or they’d already be dead. So will the threat of Hamas leadership losing their only bargaining chip prompt them to move hostages to somewhere less threatened? Which might make a rescue mission easier?

Unfortunately it’s a catch 22. If Israel is successful, and it’s a guaranteed loss for Hamas they are taking the hostages down with them. Similar to the killing sprees the nazis went on knowing they already lost the war.

[yawn]

They may be lying to the public about not going in to the tunnels. On the other hand if there is no longer any gain for Hamas (IE their defeat is imminent) they will almost for sure kill the hostages themselves.

Maybe not, only because the head honchos are living large in Qatar. And if their cause is already lost, they may not want to sacrifice their security by pissing off all the countries whose citizens are held.

[dovy2]

There are certain aspects of the hostage situation that seem off to me. Typically, these killers would not keep a large number of hostages, especially children, and ensure their well-being while their own lives are at risk. Something doesn't seem right...

so here's my hunch (and I hope I'm right): considering the known self-serving nature of top-brass Hamas, I think they are holding onto the hostages as a last-ditch effort to protect their own selves. They could be keeping the hostages safe (maybe even not in the tunnels) until the last moment, intending to use them as bargaining tools to secure the safety Sinwar, Dieff, and potentially Haniyeh (if he is captured by Mossad in Quater, which might happen soon).

[tzifanya54]

There are certain aspects of the hostage situation that seem off to me. Typically, these killers would not keep a large number of hostages, especially children, and ensure their well-being while their own lives are at risk. Something doesn't seem right...

so here's my hunch (and I hope I'm right): considering the known self-serving nature of top-brass Hamas, I think they are holding onto the hostages as a last-ditch effort to protect their own selves. They could be keeping the hostages safe (maybe even not in the tunnels) until the last moment, intending to use them as bargaining tools to secure the safety Sinwar, Dieff, and potentially Haniyeh (if he is captured by Mossad in Quater, which might happen soon).

Interesting theory, although if the situation on the ground is lost and they know they will be eliminated, there is little motivation for the guys on the ground to keep them alive, unless they believe that protecting the interests of their self serving leaders will help them get into heaven….

[AsherO]

What about the hostages? How will the army engineers prevent any casualties to the hostages who are being held in the tunnels?

I’m sure military leaders are considering every option/angle/piece of intelligence at their disposal.

[Jellybelly]

There are certain aspects of the hostage situation that seem off to me. Typically, these killers would not keep a large number of hostages, especially children, and ensure their well-being while their own lives are at risk. Something doesn't seem right...

so here's my hunch (and I hope I'm right): considering the known self-serving nature of top-brass Hamas, I think they are holding onto the hostages as a last-ditch effort to protect their own selves. They could be keeping the hostages safe (maybe even not in the tunnels) until the last moment, intending to use them as bargaining tools to secure the safety Sinwar, Dieff, and potentially Haniyeh (if he is captured by Mossad in Quater, which might happen soon).

I actually heard that, that one offer was to let the leaders leave Gaza in exchange for the release of the hostages. But I have no source, and it could’ve just been something dreamt up by some analyst

[AsherO]

I actually heard that, that one offer was to let the leaders leave Gaza in exchange for the release of the hostages. But I have no source, and it could’ve just been something dreamt up by some analyst

The highest echelons of leadership aren’t in Gaza, they and their families live in luxury in Qatar and Turkey

[Just A Jew]

Things are heating up in the north.

[sam2015]

Things are heating up in the north.

Source?

[imayid2]

https://open.substack.com/pub/dersh/p/counting-the-deaths-in-gaza

[yfr bachur]

Things are heating up in the north.

Source?

There was nothing about the north on the 4 oclock news...
Though its sort of disconcerting when the ancor interupts himself in the flow of delivering the news to announce azakot (in the darom) a number of times during the bullitin

[Just A Jew]

Source?

Friends on the north reporting an increased frequency of rockets today.

And this:

An Iran-sponsored militia originally deployed in Syria has been transferred to south Lebanon to support Hezbollah, says the IDF Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee.

“After a series of failures suffered by Hezbollah against Israel in recent weeks, the Iranian Imam Hussein Brigade, led by a commander known as Zulfiqar, has arrived in southern Lebanon,” Adraee announced in his account on X, formerly Twitter.

“The militia has engaged in confrontation with the IDF in recent weeks along the Lebanese border,” he continues.

“Hezbollah and the Imam Hussein Brigade will cause Lebanon to pay a heavy price for the benefit of Hamas-ISIS. The IDF is fully prepared to respond to anyone who tries to undermine its sovereignty in the north,” he adds.

[PlatinumGuy]

Source?

Missile barrages in past hour are much larger than anything seen recently.

There was speculation Nassrallah's promotion of the Friday speech was to make earlier action.

[CountValentine]

I’m sure military leaders are considering every option/angle/piece of intelligence at their disposal.

True but they are military leaders.

[AsherO]

True but they are military leaders.

And often have conflicting priorities that they need to balance.