Israel vs. Iran And Proxies: War Discussion Master Thread

[AsherO]

Going to be very difficult. Decades of bad policy (Shalit deal being the most glaring one) has led to this.  [Gitin 45a.] Although without the release of all hostages, they will restart.

The question isn’t whether or how soon hostilities will continue, that much is a given. The question is how much Hamas will be able to leverage this, and what it’ll end up costing Israel strategically, in lives of soldiers, politically, etc. etc.

[dovy2]

Good luck restarting this war and destroying Hamas after a 5 day pause (likely extended with a trickle of hostage releases).

Who said they are withdrawing? As long as they keep their positions, and use the 5 days to work underground, snoop around, gather intelligence, interview the hostages, rest a bit, I don't it shouldn't be too hard to start again

[shapsam]

It's a 5D chess bait and switch move 

[Chaimel6]

There is a fascinating discussion the Poskim about:

1. If you are allowed to pay more than market value for the release of a hostage. (It encourages future hostage taking).
and
2. If you are allowed to release a terrorist who might kill others in exchange for saving the life of a current hostage.

It's been reported that one of the masterminds of the Simchas Torah massacre was released in the Gilad Shalit deal. Which violated both these principles. In essence, it appears to some that the Gilad Shalit deal caused over a thousand Jews to die and hundreds to be taken captive.

[AsherO]

It's a 5D chess bait and switch move 

And Israel is taking the bait, hook, line, and sinker.

Particularly bad timing with things escalating in the north/Lebanon.

[Yehuda57]

Who said they are withdrawing? As long as they keep their positions, and use the 5 days to work underground, snoop around, gather intelligence, interview the hostages, rest a bit, I don't it shouldn't be too hard to start again

I'm no military expert, but holding positions in the middle of enemy territory while in a cease-fire sounds to me like you are turning our soldiers into sitting ducks

[avromie7]

I'm no military expert, but holding positions in the middle of enemy territory while in a cease-fire sounds to me like you are turning our soldiers into sitting ducks

There is absolutely no chance they are withdrawing. They will work to keep their soldiers safe, and clear the captured areas. A temporary ceasefire doesn't mean if you see a threat you can't respond to it, it means a pause in offensive actions.

[AsherO]

A temporary ceasefire doesn't mean if you see a threat you can't respond to it, it means a pause in offensive actions.

Only on Israel’s part.

[stooges44]

I'm no military expert, but holding positions in the middle of enemy territory while in a cease-fire sounds to me like you are turning our soldiers into sitting ducks

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkjolhqva

Under the agreement, Israel commits to refraining from aerial activity over the Gaza Strip for six hours each day during the initial cease-fire days, while Hamas attempts to locate the remaining captives.

I would think they would use every james bond trick in the book to follow their every move during those 6 hours and hopefully that would lead to a significant amount of useful intel.

[dovy2]

Only on Israel’s part.

In this specific case, if Hamas breaks the pause, that would be to Israeli's advantage.. the 4 day pause will be immediately over, and the hostages stay by us

[Just A Jew]

How inappropriate would it be to get a pool going on when the first rocket is shot after the ceasefire begins? Afaf

[AsherO]

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkjolhqva

I would think they would use every james bond trick in the book to follow their every move during those 6 hours and hopefully that would lead to a significant amount of useful intel.

The fact that they’re acquiescing on something like this when surveillance drones don’t pose a threat to efforts to round up hostages for release is just one more way they’re letting Hamas leverage this to their advantage.

[avromie7]

In this specific case, if Hamas breaks the pause, that would be to Israeli's advantage.. the 4 day pause will be immediately over, and the hostages stay by us

They are releasing the hostages throughout the ceasefire, not all on day 1.

[AsherO]

In this specific case, if Hamas breaks the pause, that would be to Israeli's advantage.. the 4 day pause will be immediately over, and the hostages stay by us

My guess is it’s 24 hours pause before we see any hostages, and subsequent 24 hours for each next batch. Hamas will try to prolong this for as long as possible on the hostage release front, and get away with as much as it can militarily in the meantime.

[AsherO]

How inappropriate would it be to get a pool going on when the first rocket is shot after the ceasefire begins? Afaf

The rockets are actually something I think Hamas will hold back on, because it holds up the appearances that they’re keeping their end of the ceasefire.

[avromie7]

We all want Israel to destroy Hamas and not allow them to regroup, but bringing home 50-100 hostages alive is a big deal. This is nothing like the 1100-1 Shalit deal, it's 3-1 plus other concessions.

[yawn]

The rockets are actually something I think Hamas will hold back on, because it holds up the appearances that they’re keeping their end of the ceasefire.

More likely they will transport people and/or weapons they were scared to do until now, and dare the IDF to bomb them. And by agreeing to this deal, they are tipping their hand that they won't.

[AsherO]

We all want Israel to destroy Hamas and not allow them to regroup, but bringing home 50-100 hostages alive is a big deal. This is nothing like the 1100-1 Shalit deal, it's 3-1 plus other concessions.

We know what we’re getting and the value of that, the price we’re paying isn’t known because we can’t foresee how it’ll play out. Keep in mind once the women/children hostages are released we have even less sympathy in the developed world, and Israel cares too much about that unfortunately.

[Just A Jew]

The rockets are actually something I think Hamas will hold back on, because it holds up the appearances that they’re keeping their end of the ceasefire.

Appearances have never stopped them before.

"That rocket? Oh, not us. PIJ. You'll have to work a separate deal with them."

"A rocket went off? Must be someone didn't get the memo. You killed our comms, so we couldnt reach everyone."

"The infidel does not control Allah's rockets. We will dictate what ceasefire means on our own terms."

[Yehuda57]

There is absolutely no chance they are withdrawing. They will work to keep their soldiers safe, and clear the captured areas. A temporary ceasefire doesn't mean if you see a threat you can't respond to it, it means a pause in offensive actions.

I don't think they will withdraw. "The best defense is a good offense" is cliche because it is true. Passively defending yourself from attacks has got to be far more dangerous than when you are on the offensive in the same territory. At least that's the way it seems to me, an admittedly clueless person.