Israel vs. Iran And Proxies: War Discussion Master Thread

[TimT]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1727041064291168730

[AsherO]

Today, the hostages don't appear to be in great danger, in fact, they have been treated well so that they can be used as currency in negotiations. While we now have more experience with the danger of releasing of existing terrorists...

This isn’t true. The IDF reported Noa Marciano HY”D was murdered by Hamas in Gaza.

[jye]

How many IDF soldiers will die due to Hamas having time to regroup and better prepare for the upcoming phase of the war? How many will die because Israel will have to bend over backwards to accommodate global pressure to prevent “civilian” casualties once there is a pause of a few days? How many more hostage attempts will be undertaken in the future now that Hamas is getting such utility from them? Almost certainly more than the number of hostages being released. Rachmana Litzlan.

I understand the enormous pressure the government is under but negotiating a partial hostage release for a cessation of hostilities is an enormous mistake.

[Yehuda57]

I'm shocked someone can even consider this sensible. They are in the hands of terrorists who we know killed at least 2 or 3 of them besides for the 1200 killed on Simchas Torah.

I legit did a double take and reread it twice. Truly absurd.

It's been widely reported that the delay since the ceasefire was originally agreed to was Hamas not even knowing how many hostages they could account for. Even now, they are going to release 53, with potentially more to be released if they can track down more.

[imayid2]

How many IDF soldiers will die due to Hamas having time to regroup and better prepare for the upcoming phase of the war? How many will die because Israel will have to bend over backwards to accommodate global pressure to prevent “civilian” casualties once there is a pause of a few days? How many more hostage attempts will be undertaken in the future now that Hamas is getting such utility from them? Almost certainly more than the number of hostages being released. Rachmana Litzlan.

There is no way to know.

There is a way to know the almost certain reality which awaits the hostages whom are not willingly released by Hamas, רח״ל.

[Just A Jew]

How many IDF soldiers will die due to Hamas having time to regroup and better prepare for the upcoming phase of the war? How many will die because Israel will have to bend over backwards to accommodate global pressure to prevent “civilian” casualties once there is a pause of a few days? How many more hostage attempts will be undertaken in the future now that Hamas is getting such utility from them? Almost certainly more than the number of hostages being released. Rachmana Litzlan.

I understand the enormous pressure the government is under but negotiating a partial hostage release for a cessation of hostilities is an enormous mistake.

How many more will die is unknown. We don't even know if the number of casualties will change at all. Saving 50+ lives immediately vs a completely unknown quantity (which may be 0)? I really don't understand the opposition to this deal considering the circumstances.

[yelped]

It is a very tough situation, and I am glad I don't have the responsibility for any of these decisions.

I will say that I hope they reserve the right to keep on getting everyone in Hamas afterwards and don't afford any of their leaders in Qatar or elsewhere any safety.

[AsherO]

How many more will die is unknown. We don't even know if the number of casualties will change at all. Saving 50+ lives immediately vs a completely unknown quantity (which may be 0)? I really don't understand the opposition to this deal considering the circumstances.

The fact that it will encourage more hostage-taking, for starters.

[imayid2]

The fact that it will encourage more hostage-taking, for starters.

They are always encouraged to take hostages, and if they don’t have a use for them they’ll just kill them instead.

Bears no resemblance to the Gemara type case were the whole thing was for financial gain.

[AsherO]

They are always encouraged to take hostages, and if they don’t have a use for them they’ll just kill them instead.

Bears no resemblance to the Gemara type case were the whole thing was for financial gain.

If you don’t see how the Shalit deal resulted in 240+ hostages taken, then you’re not connecting the dots.

If for financial gain we discourage hostage-taking by not paying more than their worth, how much more so when it halts Israel’s military progress in eradicating Hamas, which is needed to safeguard Israel (על פי דרך הטבע).

[jew]

And Israel is taking the bait, hook, line, and sinker.

Particularly bad timing with things escalating in the north/Lebanon.

I don't understand. Lebanon is part of the ceasefire? Or they can focus there for the next few days...?

[AsherO]

I don't understand. Lebanon is part of the ceasefire? Or they can focus there for the next few days...?

Making compromises to one Iranian proxy while things are still up in the air with another.

[jew]

Wondering what happens if theoretically they do give all hostages back tomorrow. Then permanent ceasefire?
They keep saying no ceasefire until we get the hostages back, does that imply complete ceasefire if they do get all?

[yawn]

Where do the prisoners Israel is releasing end up? Is Qatar taking them? Or are they sent back to Gaza where their life expectancy is a few weeks?

[jye]

How many more will die is unknown. We don't even know if the number of casualties will change at all. Saving 50+ lives immediately vs a completely unknown quantity (which may be 0)? I really don't understand the opposition to this deal considering the circumstances.

I think it’s a given that an enemy is given the time to redistribute weapons, reestablish severed lines of communication, and regroup will kill more soldiers than one that is under pressure and disarray. If you want to say that the sakana isn’t on any one specific soldier while the hostages are בפנינו I get that but unless Halacha demands it (this may be תלוי in the earlier discussion of מאי חזית and שעת מלחמה to an extent) it is extremely foolhardy.

[TimT]

I will say that I hope they reserve the right to keep on getting everyone in Hamas afterwards

Every last one is going to be hunted down & killed, as long as it takes & wherever they are. Operation Bayonet on a large scale.

[AsherO]

Wondering what happens if theoretically they do give all hostages back tomorrow. Then permanent ceasefire?
They keep saying no ceasefire until we get the hostages back, does that imply complete ceasefire if they do get all?

I don’t think it means that, it just means they will have one less public-opinion card to play when facing international pressure to ceasefire.

[avromie7]

If you don’t see how the Shalit deal resulted in 240+ hostages taken, then you’re not connecting the dots.

If for financial gain we discourage hostage-taking by not paying more than their worth, how much more so when it halts Israel’s military progress in eradicating Hamas, which is needed to safeguard Israel (על פי דרך הטבע).

Shalit was 1100-1, this is 3-1. Assuming they will keep the ratio roughly the same for all hostages, it's a significant reduction from the incentives they had since the Shalit deal. It does the opposite by making it clear that they won't get so much out of taking hostages in the future.

[jew]

I don’t think it means that, it just means they will have one less public-opinion card to play when facing international pressure to ceasefire.

Right. So it always sounds funny to me but wtvr . Lots of statements said are sounding funny :/

[AsherO]

Where do the prisoners Israel is releasing end up? Is Qatar taking them? Or are they sent back to Gaza where their life expectancy is a few weeks?

We’re talking about women and children, they’re going home to their families.