Israel vs. Iran And Proxies: War Discussion Master Thread

[jew]

[jew]

We’re talking about women and children, they’re going home to their families.

Their families are in tunnels fighting or dead already?

[jye]

Shalit was 1100-1, this is 3-1. Assuming they will keep the ratio roughly the same for all hostages, it's a significant reduction from the incentives they had since the Shalit deal. It does the opposite by making it clear that they won't get so much out of taking hostages in the future.

Forget the ratio. They are getting a decent chance at survival only because of the hostages. That is bound to incentivize them, and others like them in the future. No future plan will be complete without a significant amount of hostages taken. They see their world will not condemn or even give a hoot about the hostages, and it will bring Israel to the negotiating table.

[imayid2]

If you don’t see how the Shalit deal resulted in 240+ hostages taken, then you’re not connecting the dots.

So without their realized gain in taking hostages do you think the current hostages would still be alive?

[imayid2]

Forget the ratio. They are getting a decent chance at survival only because of the hostages. That is bound to incentivize them, and others like them in the future. No future plan will be complete without a significant amount of hostages taken. They see their world will not condemn or even give a hoot about the hostages, and it will bring Israel to the negotiating table.

On what grounds do you assert that a 4 day deal gives them a decent chance of survival?

[AsherO]

Shalit was 1100-1, this is 3-1. Assuming they will keep the ratio roughly the same for all hostages, it's a significant reduction from the incentives they had since the Shalit deal. It does the opposite by making it clear that they won't get so much out of taking hostages in the future.

It’s an “improvement”, but only considering how bad the Shalit deal was. The 3-1 odds is exhorbitant in its own right, especially considering the other bigger concessions Hamas are getting:
- Fuel and trucks to northern Gaza
- 4+ day pause in the Israeli offensive
- Israel clearing Gazan airspace (no drone surveillance)

Those are the real concessions here, the ones Hamas really values

[AsherO]

Isn’t the whole claim that Hamas supposedly doesn’t know where many of hostages are

[AsherO]

Forget the ratio. They are getting a decent chance at survival only because of the hostages. That is bound to incentivize them, and others like them in the future. No future plan will be complete without a significant amount of hostages taken. They see their world will not condemn or even give a hoot about the hostages, and it will bring Israel to the negotiating table.

In fact they see the world will still rally in their support despite their lack of any consideration for anything humanitarian

[AsherO]

So without their realized gain in taking hostages do you think the current hostages would still be alive?

So what should we do? reward Hamas for sparing their lives?

[Just A Jew]

The fact that it will encourage more hostage-taking, for starters.

That logic applies when the options are a) take hostages for their value or b) do nothing. In this case, the options would be a) take hostages for their value or b) kill everyone on Oct 7 because live people have no value. I'm kinda ok sending the message that we'd rather you kidnap our people and keep them alive rather than just butcher them on the spot.

[Just A Jew]

So what should we do? reward Hamas for sparing their lives?

Yes. The alternative is sending a message that there is no incentive to keeping people alive, so you should just kill us whenever you get the chance. You're not dealing with pirates here.

[AsherO]

That logic applies when the options are a) take hostages for their value or b) do nothing. In this case, the options would be a) take hostages for their value or b) kill everyone on Oct 7 because live people have no value. I'm kinda ok sending the message that we'd rather you kidnap our people and keep them alive rather than just butcher them on the spot.

Their intent/wish is to R”L kill all Jews. When they don’t do so, it’s solely for their own self-interests. Whatever those interests are, they oppose ours.

[jye]

Yes. The alternative is sending a message that there is no incentive to keeping people alive, so you should just kill us whenever you get the chance. You're not dealing with pirates here.

No, the alternative is sending them a message that there’s no utility in attacking in the first place because it will result in their complete destruction and taking hostages won’t mitigate the risk they are taking.

That logic applies when the options are a) take hostages for their value or b) do nothing. In this case, the options would be a) take hostages for their value or b) kill everyone on Oct 7 because live people have no value. I'm kinda ok sending the message that we'd rather you kidnap our people and keep them alive rather than just butcher them on the spot.

You are not merely incentivizing them to keep people alive. You are changing the entire risk/ reward paradigm of mounting an attack in the future when they might not have.

(As an aside, odds are that without the value of hostages Hamas would have devoted less time and resources to the festival and kibbutzim and more to their acknowledged goal of taking over bases and army positions and trying to establish a corridor to link up Gaza with the West Bank.)

[Just A Jew]

Their intent/wish is to R”L kill all Jews. When they don’t do so, it’s solely for their own self-interests. Whatever those interests are, they oppose ours.

You're over-simplifying it. We want no dead Israelis. Not giving in to their interests doesn't give us what we want.

[imayid2]

Their intent/wish is to R”L kill all Jews. When they don’t do so, it’s solely for their own self-interests. Whatever those interests are, they oppose ours.

We have an obligation in saving those lives as long as the cost isn't too high to bear.

[ExGingi]

I'm shocked someone can even consider this sensible. They are in the hands of terrorists who we know killed at least 2 or 3 of them besides for the 1200 killed on Simchas Torah.

It is beyond me why was there no demand for ICRC visits as a precursor to any negotiations.

[ExGingi]

Again. Why was this not a demand and precursor to ANY negotiations? ? ? ?

[AsherO]

(As an aside, odds are that without the value of hostages Hamas would have devoted less time and resources to the festival and kibbutzim and more to their acknowledged goal of taking over bases and army positions and trying to establish a corridor to link up Gaza with the West Bank.)

They would’ve tried to kill more Jews R”L, which they arguably would have been able to do had more terrorists stayed in Israel. But you’re right, the current military response to Hamas also serves as a deterrent for any such future event. The bigger the response, the greater the deterrent.

What objective would explain trying to link Gaza to the WB? Especially since they don’t have the military power to hold such a corridor.

[jye]

On what grounds do you assert that a 4 day deal gives them a decent chance of survival?

Whether it’s realistic or not it’s possible that they are thinking
https://twitter.com/academic_la/status/1727028923903656205

[Just A Jew]

You are not merely incentivizing them to keep people alive. You are changing the entire risk/ reward paradigm of mounting an attack in the future when they might not have.

(As an aside, odds are that without the value of hostages Hamas would have devoted less time and resources to the festival and kibbutzim and more to their acknowledged goal of taking over bases and army positions and trying to establish a corridor to link up Gaza with the West Bank.)

I think you'd be right if we were talking about a full ceasefire. We're not. We're essentially talking about a 5 day pause. We're still going to continue killing them on day 6. Their stated goal is to kill Israelis. They also have other goals, and those goals are accomplished by keeping Israelis alive. If we remove that "incentive," they revert back to their primary goal of dead Israelis, which doesn't amount to a win for us.