Israel vs. Iran And Proxies: War Discussion Master Thread

[jye]

They would’ve tried to kill more Jews R”L, which they arguably would have been able to do had more terrorists stayed in Israel. But you’re right, the current military response to Hamas also serves as a deterrent for any such future event. The bigger the response, the greater the deterrent.

What objective would explain trying to link Gaza to the WB? Especially since they don’t have the military power to hold such a corridor.

https://m.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/gaza-news/article-772934#:~:text=Hamas's%20original%20plan%20for%20October,officials%20briefed%20on%20collected%20evidence.

[yawn]

We’re talking about women and children, they’re going home to their families.

I think you misunderstood my question. Israel is releasing 150 prisoners. Where do they go?

[ExGingi]

[AsherO]

You're over-simplifying it. We want no dead Israelis. Not giving in to their interests doesn't give us what we want.

We have an obligation in saving those lives as long as the cost isn't too high to bear.

We’re going in circles. They take hostages because they know we’ll go far to free them, and in going far to free them we encourage them taking more hostages.

[ExGingi]

I think you misunderstood my question. Israel is releasing 150 prisoners. Where do they go?

Supposedly they get a choice of Judea & Samaria or overseas.

[AsherO]

I think you misunderstood my question. Israel is releasing 150 prisoners. Where do they go?

I understood the first time, I’m talking about Palestinian women and minors, which AFAIK is what Israel is going to be releasing.

[Just A Jew]

I think some people are looking at this in binary terms. A win for them is a loss for us, and a win for us is a loss for them. There are multiple levels here, where no one fully wins or loses.

[Just A Jew]

We’re going in circles. They take hostages because they know we’ll go far to free them, and in going far to free them we encourage them taking more hostages.

Yes. And if the alternative was that they'd do nothing, you'd be right - don't incentivize them to take more hostages. The alternative here is that they kill people instead of taking them as hostages. I'm ok with incentivizing them to keep people alive instead of killing them.

[imayid2]

We’re going in circles. They take hostages because they know we’ll go far to free them, and in going far to free them we encourage them taking more hostages.

instead of killing them. I don't think that's a bad thing.

[TimT]

Isn’t the whole claim that Hamas supposedly doesn’t know where many of hostages are

Does anyone believe that other than BBC, Skynews, & Rabbi Jessica ?

[Just A Jew]

Does anyone believe that other than BBC, Skynews, & Rabbi Jessica ?

I do. They may know who has each one, but I don't think they know exactly where each of them is being kept. They've been dealing with bigger issues over the last few weeks than keeping tabs on where PIJ or other factions have moved their hostages.

[yawn]

I understood the first time, I’m talking about Palestinian women and minors, which AFAIK is what Israel is going to be releasing.

Got it. My bad. Yeah just found this on NBC. "Israel will release 150 Palestinian women and children prisoners as part of the deal, but families of any prisoner's victims have the right to petition in court over the agreement under Israeli law. The official noted that none of the agreed-upon prisoners have directly killed Israelis."

[Yehuda57]

I think some people are looking at this in binary terms. A win for them is a loss for us, and a win for us is a loss for them. There are multiple levels here, where no one fully wins or loses.

Hamas' goal is dead Jews. A win by them is dead Jews. Not "fully winning" means fewer dead Jews now, but more dead Jews in the future. That's why they bothered taking hostages in the first place.

Does anyone believe that other than BBC, Skynews, & Rabbi Jessica ?

What's so hard to believe? There is lots of evidence that many hostages were taken by civilians. One can assume they handed them over to Hamas once they came to Gaza, but it is not a given. PIJ also took hostages, it is not a given that they shared details with Hamas. And Hamas has been attacked by the IDF blowing up tunnels and infrastructure, it is more than plausible that some hostages and their "guards" have lost contact with Hamas leadership.

[jew]

Again. Why was this not a demand and precursor to ANY negotiations? ? ? ?

1000%!!

[Just A Jew]

No, the alternative is sending them a message that there’s no utility in attacking in the first place because it will result in their complete destruction and taking hostages won’t mitigate the risk they are taking

It's not mitigating any risk. The prisoners being released were safer in Israeli prisons than they are being released. Hamas has already shown that they are willing to risk the wrath of the IDF in order to kill Israelis. I don't think not negotiating will change their risk/reward assessment. This is essentially a side hustle, which, in the big picture, doesn't actually change the MO for either side.

[Just A Jew]

Hamas' goal is dead Jews. A win by them is dead Jews. Not "fully winning" means fewer dead Jews now, but more dead Jews in the future. That's why they bothered taking hostages in the first place.

I think you'd be right if we were talking about a full ceasefire. We're not. We're essentially talking about a 5 day pause. We're still going to continue killing them on day 6.

[Ver hut gazugt]

Let’s keep in mind sinwar was released in the shalit deal. Letting prisoners free is a huge risk.

[TimT]

I do. They may know who has each one, but I don't think they know exactly where each of them is being kept. They've been dealing with bigger issues over the last few weeks than keeping tabs on where PIJ or other factions have moved their hostages.

The hostages are their only ticket to staying alive (for now).

[jew]

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/380709


I wonder how many of them agree to this.

[Just A Jew]

Let’s keep in mind sinwar was released in the shalit deal. Letting prisoners free is a huge risk.

Absolutely. This isn't that, though. The risk is very different now. We're still actively working on wiping them out now, hostage release notwithstanding. Then, we released hostages and let them be, resulting in what we have now.