https://open.substack.com/pub/thedailyscroll/p/may-10-stop-the-war-the-egyptiansAll of that to say, it should be clear by now that the U.S. line on Rafah is “don’t,” regardless of what the Israelis do. So The Scroll asked Tablet’s geopolitical analyst: What should the Israelis do, given the choice between an open break with the United States and a limited incursion that is unlikely to achieve anything of note?
What Israel can do to win under the constraints that the Biden administration is attempting to impose on its forces in Gaza is simple: win. The Biden administration’s policy in Gaza is a particularly ghoulish one, which aims to drive up the body count on the Palestinian side by denying Israel access to precision munitions. In other words, the administration is attempting to force Israel into what it routinely criticizes as “indiscriminate” bombing and shelling with higher civilian body counts. It’s an ugly strategy that seeks to limit Israel’s response by tarring the IDF as “baby killers.” Morally and strategically, the United States is now backing another part of Hamas’ warfighting strategy of forcing civilian casualties and then using the resulting corpses as a PR weapon against Israel.
Any fair analysis suggests that there are two ways to limit the number of civilian corpses on the Palestinian side: Avoid fighting, or use overwhelming force to win as fast and completely as possible. Israel chose the first option, which failed comprehensively on Oct. 7. What they are left with now is Option Two: win.
Months of violent street protests and campus takeovers by masked activists in keffiyehs have currently boosted Israel’s popularity in the United States to levels not seen since the early days of the war. The Biden administration, facing an election, rightly fears a repeat of the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Taken together, these two factors suggest a uniquely favorable atmosphere for Israel to win now.