Author Topic: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections  (Read 3730 times)

Offline yfr bachur

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 1180
  • Total likes: 1369
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Yerusholayim -> נחליאל
2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« on: February 07, 2024, 10:17:01 AM »
So we're coming up on the war delayed elections now scheduled for February 27.
These elections can have a much greater impact on ciizens day to day lives than the national elections.
Basically, Israeli's will be voting for up to three or four separate elections, depending where they live.
In cities, they will be voting for mayor and city council.
In towns and villages (kibutzim, moshavim, yisuvim) they will be voting the local vaad and its leader, and the regional council and its leader.
The council election are all citywide races with seats divided based on proportion of votes received. The size of the councils is based on population - up to 31 seats.
Mayoral candidates that receive 40% of the vote win the race. (and more than any other candidate, obviously)
If no candidate receives 40%, the top two candidates meet in a run off at a lated date.

These are obviously the first elections since the start of the war, which will have an impact on races.
additionally, these are also the first elections since corona - and before ST these elections were seen by many as a referendum on the how the local govt did during that time.
These elections also are affected by the anti bibi kaplan movement which have established local parties in many locals.

Some of the election races that are especially interesting to charedim are: JLM, BS, BB, KS, Charish, Chaifa, Ashdod, Elad.
Will we see a gain in electoral power by the peleg because of corona?
WIll Degel manage to repeat its powerful showing in the last elections, where in certain locals it emerged as a surprise kingmaker?
In others will the charedim generaly manage to not cut off their noses to spite their face? (looking at you, Beit Shemesh!)

Offline Spoon

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2019
  • Posts: 1074
  • Total likes: 223
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: NY
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2024, 02:21:31 PM »
What's the latest in BS? Is Viznitz still going with Abitbol?

Online Moshe Green

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2021
  • Posts: 1203
  • Total likes: 1010
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Israel
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2024, 03:15:53 AM »
What's the latest in BS? Is Viznitz still going with Abitbol?
From what i heard, gur and vishnitz are will abutbol and many other chassiduses are with greenburg.

But there are still many kehillos, Chassidish, Litvish, Sefardi, Mizrachi and even secular who have not picked a side yet and the election is really all up in the air.

Offline yfr bachur

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 1180
  • Total likes: 1369
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Yerusholayim -> נחליאל
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2024, 05:04:10 AM »
What's the latest in BS? Is Viznitz still going with Abitbol?

I saw that there was a poll of beit shemesh voters, (however much you believe polls  :D) which showed that Bloch is on track to get more than 40% of the votes in the first round... which would make all the who's with who irreleveant... :'( unless they can coalese around a single charedi candidate...
It also showed that more than 30% of those polled did not have the right to vote in BS in the 2018 elections.

Online Moshe Green

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2021
  • Posts: 1203
  • Total likes: 1010
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Israel
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2024, 10:13:35 AM »
I saw that there was a poll of beit shemesh voters, (however much you believe polls  :D) which showed that Bloch is on track to get more than 40% of the votes in the first round... which would make all the who's with who irreleveant... :'( unless they can coalese around a single charedi candidate...
It also showed that more than 30% of those polled did not have the right to vote in BS in the 2018 elections.
I have a friend who is in the know and he explained to me the numbers.

A little over a year ago, for the Knesset elections, the Chareidi parties got 60% of the votes. That means non-Chareidi parties only got 40%.
Since then, there has been about 2000-4000 families that have moved in, around 8-10,000 voters. Almost all of these are Chareidi (80-90%) moving to the new neighborhoods, Gimmel, Daled, and Hey.
In addition, there are many (non-citizens) that have the right to vote in municipal elections. These are mainly Chareidim who did not make Aliya for various reasons.
Plus the fact that many people, of all stripes, are fed up with the current, non-Chareidi mayor.
This gives her way less then 40%. Maybe 28-30%. Max 35%.
This of course does not take into the fact that some Chareidi people may vote for her, but still.

The only chance for her would be for there to be a second round and for some Chareidim to make a deal with her.

Offline yfr bachur

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 1180
  • Total likes: 1369
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Yerusholayim -> נחליאל
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2024, 11:22:27 AM »
I have a friend who is in the know and he explained to me the numbers.

A little over a year ago, for the Knesset elections, the Chareidi parties got 60% of the votes. That means non-Chareidi parties only got 40%.
Since then, there has been about 2000-4000 families that have moved in, around 8-10,000 voters. Almost all of these are Chareidi (80-90%) moving to the new neighborhoods, Gimmel, Daled, and Hey.
In addition, there are many (non-citizens) that have the right to vote in municipal elections. These are mainly Chareidim who did not make Aliya for various reasons.
Plus the fact that many people, of all stripes, are fed up with the current, non-Chareidi mayor.
This gives her way less then 40%. Maybe 28-30%. Max 35%.
This of course does not take into the fact that some Chareidi people may vote for her, but still.

The only chance for her would be for there to be a second round and for some Chareidim to make a deal with her.
Source for your numbers at https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=2610
You can check previous elections by changing the number in votes25 to an earlier number. (till 21 - the 2019 elections)
You can see how the eligible number of voters has gone up (by almost 30000!), while the participation rate has dropped.

However, when you look at the last city election you get a little different picture:
https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%94%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%9C%D7%A8%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%99%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%A7%D7%95%D7%9E%D7%99%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C_(2018)
The Charedi parties together get 12 out of 21 seats.
This election I believe that there will be more seat on the council due to the growth of the city.
However much Bloch is disliked, Abutbul is hated. He is, to his detractors, the posterchild of dirty machine politics.
And remember the chareidi mayoral vote is split 3 ways - degel, aguda/shas, eitz. Bloch only needs to get to 40% and she wins.

Also you err to assume that anglo chareidim vote with the block. AFAIR, they went under the table for Bloch - and are sort of the reason that Degel is supporting a so called "new chareidi" in Greenberg.
The poll I referenced -
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1651079
« Last Edit: February 08, 2024, 11:28:45 AM by yfr bachur »

Online Moshe Green

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2021
  • Posts: 1203
  • Total likes: 1010
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Israel
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2024, 01:30:12 PM »
Source for your numbers at https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=2610
You can check previous elections by changing the number in votes25 to an earlier number. (till 21 - the 2019 elections)
You can see how the eligible number of voters has gone up (by almost 30000!), while the participation rate has dropped.

However, when you look at the last city election you get a little different picture:
https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%94%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%9C%D7%A8%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%99%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%A7%D7%95%D7%9E%D7%99%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C_(2018)
The Charedi parties together get 12 out of 21 seats.
This election I believe that there will be more seat on the council due to the growth of the city.
However much Bloch is disliked, Abutbul is hated. He is, to his detractors, the posterchild of dirty machine politics.
And remember the chareidi mayoral vote is split 3 ways - degel, aguda/shas, eitz. Bloch only needs to get to 40% and she wins.

Also you err to assume that anglo chareidim vote with the block. AFAIR, they went under the table for Bloch - and are sort of the reason that Degel is supporting a so called "new chareidi" in Greenberg.
The poll I referenced -
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1651079
You did not address my friends points:
Since then, there has been about 2000-4000 families that have moved in, around 8-10,000 voters. Almost all of these are Chareidi (80-90%) moving to the new neighborhoods, Gimmel, Daled, and Hey.
In addition, there are many (non-citizens) that have the right to vote in municipal elections. These are mainly Chareidim who did not make Aliya for various reasons. Almost all of these are Chareidi
Plus the fact that many people who voted for her last time, of all stripes, are fed up with the current, non-Chareidi mayor. Almost all of these are not Chareidi
Math- 40% - people who hate her - new residents - non voters in the knesset =less than 40%

You merely pointed out that 5 1/2 years ago Bloch got 50 1/2 of the vote. The population has changed.
And that Abutbul is hated (i have no clue, but even assuming you are right, those that would have voted for him can vote for greenburg)
And that some Anglos may vote for Bloch. They did last time as well. Thats why she won.



Offline yfr bachur

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 1180
  • Total likes: 1369
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Yerusholayim -> נחליאל
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2024, 12:08:44 PM »
You did not address my friends points:
Since then, there has been about 2000-4000 families that have moved in, around 8-10,000 voters. Almost all of these are Chareidi (80-90%) moving to the new neighborhoods, Gimmel, Daled, and Hey.
In addition, there are many (non-citizens) that have the right to vote in municipal elections. These are mainly Chareidim who did not make Aliya for various reasons. Almost all of these are Chareidi
Plus the fact that many people who voted for her last time, of all stripes, are fed up with the current, non-Chareidi mayor. Almost all of these are not Chareidi
Math- 40% - people who hate her - new residents - non voters in the knesset =less than 40%

You merely pointed out that 5 1/2 years ago Bloch got 50 1/2 of the vote. The population has changed.
And that Abutbul is hated (i have no clue, but even assuming you are right, those that would have voted for him can vote for greenburg)
And that some Anglos may vote for Bloch. They did last time as well. Thats why she won.
Wasn't arguing with you - Just giving MM to support what you said...

the little poking around I've done seem to show that ALL THREE are convinced (at least publicly) that they will bring in 40% in the first round, and if Chv"S not, they will definitely win in the second round...
Charedi chadash, and chutznekim cannot be assumed to be straight degel/aguda voters, especialy in beit shemesh
because of this I'm also not totally convinced on the percentage of "Charedi" voters in the new residents. (also Some of the "Charedim" are extreme enough that they don't vote at all...)
(Maybe I'll have time to elaborate on this tomorrow...)
Also confirmed - 4 more seats on the council
« Last Edit: February 10, 2024, 12:13:09 PM by yfr bachur »

Offline yshad

  • Dansdeals Silver Elite
  • **
  • Join Date: Aug 2018
  • Posts: 76
  • Total likes: 105
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: Beit Shemesh
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2024, 08:22:59 AM »
It's amazing to me to see how little substance is being offered, meaning no platforms, no promises of anything specific, BY ANYONE! Just, "Vote for me, and everything will be amazing, you'll see."

Offline yfr bachur

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 1180
  • Total likes: 1369
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Yerusholayim -> נחליאל
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2024, 08:32:48 AM »
It's amazing to me to see how little substance is being offered, meaning no platforms, no promises of anything specific, BY ANYONE! Just, "Vote for me, and everything will be amazing, you'll see."

Did you read Agudas leaflet that was put in everyones mailbox?
or the degel leaflet that has not been distributed yet?
or even Hitoreruts online manifesto?
There's the slogan, and then there's the actual party platform - don't confuse the two!
(Aside from the Trumpian MAGA, its no different than the US!)

Honestly, if you remember reading what degel was trying to accomplish in JLM in the last elections, and what they managed to do over the last five years - they really did accomplish much of their goals...

Offline mevinyavin

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2022
  • Posts: 1989
  • Total likes: 2390
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Laptop help/deal request template
  • Location: Yerushalayim
  • Programs: Windows 10 and 11 Home, Word/Excel/Publisher 2021, Wordweb, McGill English Dictionary of Rhyme, VLC, Torat Emet, 7-Zip, Lightshot, Calibre, FDM, FreeFileSync, Teracopy, Handbreak, Lightshot
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2024, 08:41:17 AM »
or the degel leaflet that has not been distributed yet?
I did see the degel leaflet. It enumerated a list of goals. Most of them were vague enough, but some seemed pretty concrete.
Quote from: ExGingi
Echo chambers are boring and don't contribute much to deeper thinking and understanding!

Online Moshe Green

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2021
  • Posts: 1203
  • Total likes: 1010
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Israel
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2024, 08:58:36 AM »
It's amazing to me to see how little substance is being offered, meaning no platforms, no promises of anything specific, BY ANYONE! Just, "Vote for me, and everything will be amazing, you'll see."
You are right. The signs outside speak like that. But like yfr bochur says, most politicians do that. They do have interviews with the local papers and distribute pamphlets/propaganda with their goals and asperations...

Offline yfr bachur

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 1180
  • Total likes: 1369
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Yerusholayim -> נחליאל
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2024, 12:28:32 PM »
I did see the degel leaflet. It enumerated a list of goals. Most of them were vague enough, but some seemed pretty concrete.

Haven't seen it yet.
But I already had a mainstream Chssidisher tell me that he wont be voting at all based on what was in the Aguda one (not extreme enough for him)

Offline yshad

  • Dansdeals Silver Elite
  • **
  • Join Date: Aug 2018
  • Posts: 76
  • Total likes: 105
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: Beit Shemesh
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2024, 04:18:15 PM »
Saw my first real bit of information today. Actually from a new party, Derech, running for BS city council
Would love to hear real info regarding Greenberg vs Abutbol. Guess I can dream on...

Online Moshe Green

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2021
  • Posts: 1203
  • Total likes: 1010
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Israel
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2024, 03:25:58 AM »
Saw my first real bit of information today. Actually from a new party, Derech, running for BS city council
Would love to hear real info regarding Greenberg vs Abutbol. Guess I can dream on...
heard about derech as well but no info.

who's behind it? Anglo Balebatim?
Which Rabbanim?
Do you know who they are supporting for mayor?

Offline yshad

  • Dansdeals Silver Elite
  • **
  • Join Date: Aug 2018
  • Posts: 76
  • Total likes: 105
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: Beit Shemesh
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2024, 07:30:38 AM »
heard about derech as well but no info.

who's behind it? Anglo Balebatim?
Which Rabbanim?
Do you know who they are supporting for mayor?

according to the pamphlet they distributed, "of course we have Rabanim behind us. We just won't tell you who they are." And AFAIK no Rabanim have publicly came out supporting them.
Same for mayor, "We don't want to commit to any one mayoral candidate.
It is true that one party cannot possibly represent all types of Chareidim in Beit Shemesh.
Weird that they don't have a website. I guess nowadays, all you need is whatsapp and street signs

Online Moshe Green

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2021
  • Posts: 1203
  • Total likes: 1010
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Israel
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2024, 10:50:24 AM »
according to the pamphlet they distributed, "of course we have Rabanim behind us. We just won't tell you who they are." And AFAIK no Rabanim have publicly came out supporting them.
;D ;D ;D So they are Chareidi without Rabbanim  ;D ;D ;D
Sounds like the Tzedukim...
Same for mayor, "We don't want to commit to any one mayoral candidate.
I believe that the only chance they have to make a difference is by committing to one candidate and then getting concessions out of that candidate. W/o that there is no hope for them to do anything...
It is true that one party cannot possibly represent all types of Chareidim in Beit Shemesh.
2 Chareidim, 3 parties

Offline yshad

  • Dansdeals Silver Elite
  • **
  • Join Date: Aug 2018
  • Posts: 76
  • Total likes: 105
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: Beit Shemesh
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2024, 12:39:01 PM »
I believe that the only chance they have to make a difference is by committing to one candidate and then getting concessions out of that candidate. W/o that there is no hope for them to do anything...

they can always wait until the results are in and then bargain with whoever wins as mayor- unless you think that they won't pass the threshold without commiting to a specific candidate?

Online Moshe Green

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2021
  • Posts: 1203
  • Total likes: 1010
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Israel
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2024, 01:03:53 PM »
they can always wait until the results are in and then bargain with whoever wins as mayor- unless you think that they won't pass the threshold without commiting to a specific candidate?
even if they do pass and get one seat, i can't imagine whoever is mayor from needing exactly 1 seat to get a majority... but if they support someone then they can already bargain now...

Offline yfr bachur

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 1180
  • Total likes: 1369
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Yerusholayim -> נחליאל
Re: 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections
« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2024, 12:14:42 PM »
A hebrew newspaper I find helpful to for (mostly) non sectarian analysis of the Charedi political scene is the free https://kav-itonut.co.il/
(all the different versions have more or less the same content just different ads for different locations...)
back catalog found here: https://kav-itonut.co.il/category/%d7%94%d7%a2%d7%99%d7%aa%d7%95%d7%a0%d7%99%d7%9d-%d7%94%d7%92%d7%93%d7%95%d7%9c%d7%99%d7%9d/%d7%94%d7%a9%d7%91%d7%95%d7%a2-%d7%91%d7%99%d7%a8%d7%95%d7%a9%d7%9c%d7%99%d7%9d/
« Last Edit: February 13, 2024, 12:20:23 PM by yfr bachur »