What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?

[Shmueli]

As the war in Gaza seems to wrapping up, attention is turning to the North.

Canada is planning an evacuation of it's citizens in Lebanon.

What would a war with Hezbollah look like?

Is Israel as prepared as we like to think it is??

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/skc0dbmia

[davidd75]

scary
In an extreme scenario if Israel's existence is threatened Lebanon may be obliterated

[yelped]

Lol:

https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1805214431481102551

[Moshe123]

Hashem Yerachem and I hope it doesn't happen. What will Israel gain from destroying Lebanon if Israel is also destroyed and Iran is intact?
Part of the operation must be destroying the Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Hezbullah is their only leverage.

Use weapons of mass destruction to start the war and avoid Israeli casualties.

[yfr bachur]

Horrific.
Hezbollah has tens to hundreds of thousands of precision rockets and missiles, which they would prioritise on military targets, but not exclusively.
Under such an onslought, IL would have to ration Iron Dome interceptors to protect essential military and civilian infrstructure. Misiles judged to be not landing in such areas would not be shot down, and then the only protection for civilians is the miklatim.
It is likely that under the barage, local arabs would attack, both from the west bank and possibly even israeli residents.
Direct hits on electric production facilities could be serious enough to effect production levels for the long term.
Potable water ceases to exist in an Israel w/o electricity - most is produced from the sea, and is pumped all over the country.
...
In short: Hashem Yerachem.

[Sam 77]

Horrific.
Hezbollah has tens to hundreds of thousands of precision rockets and missiles, which they would prioritise on military targets, but not exclusively.
Under such an onslought, IL would have to ration Iron Dome interceptors to protect essential military and civilian infrstructure. Misiles judged to be not landing in such areas would not be shot down, and then the only protection for civilians is the miklatim.
It is likely that under the barage, local arabs would attack, both from the west bank and possibly even israeli residents.
Direct hits on electric production facilities could be serious enough to effect production levels for the long term.
Potable water ceases to exist in an Israel w/o electricity - most is produced from the sea, and is pumped all over the country.
...
In short: Hashem Yerachem.

Thanks for the morrall boost

[mevinyavin]

Thanks for the encouragement to daven hard.

FTFM

[Sam 77]

FTFM

I guess

[yfr bachur]

Thanks for the morrall boost

Emuna and bitachon don't equal living under a rock in denial about the situation.

I wonder how to reconcile "אל תדגו דעגת מחר" in situations like this.
Are we supposed to have a store of water? or is that "דעגת מחר"?
Food at least for a week shouldnt be an issue anyway, most people? have some sort of pantry and dont live store shelf to mouth.

Agav, anyone makpid on shabbos electric and water will be in a better situation...

[PlatinumGuy]

tens to hundreds of thousands of precision rockets and missiles

Very few of them are precise, and the level of precision isn't high, but it is still possible that they have enough firepower Bderech Hateva to obliterate Israel - by creating enough damage that the elites will leave permanently and enough other Arab nations will march and try to push us into the sea.

It's also possible there's enough such firepower that's completely immune to bombing, perhaps even deep enough underground to withstand a nuclear attack.

אם ה׳ לא ישמור עיר, שווא שקד שומר

[yfr bachur]

Very few of them are precise, and the level of precision isn't high, but it is still possible that they have enough firepower Bderech Hateva to obliterate Israel - by creating enough damage that the elites will leave permanently and enough other Arab nations will march and try to push us into the sea.

It's also possible there's enough such firepower that's completely immune to bombing, perhaps even deep enough underground to withstand a nuclear attack.

אם ה׳ לא ישמור עיר, שווא שקד שומר

you're right I should have written

high tens to hundreds of thousands of rockets and missiles, some (unknown how many) equipped with some level of precision guidance

I don't know what the level of precision there is in the ID system. If Hezbollah were to fire a barrage a massive (1000+) barrage of rockets at say, Haifa, would ID be able to pick out the precision ones fired at the ports and other infrastructure from the rest of the rockets coming in the same general direction?

[AsherO]

you're right I should have written
I don't know what the level of precision there is in the ID system. If Hezbollah were to fire a barrage a massive (1000+) barrage of rockets at say, Haifa, would ID be able to pick out the precision ones fired at the ports and other infrastructure from the rest of the rockets coming in the same general direction?

Pretty sure the precision ones are missiles and not rockets, have different speeds and trajectories, and other systems designed to take them down (e.g. Arrow 2 and 3).

The limitations of Israel’s aerial defense arrays are likely known, but also highly classified.

[LongTimeLurker]

There are a number of different ways it can play out depending on sk many factors but it all depends on who makes the first big move which will determine how much long range and exact rockets hizbullah still has.

It also depends on if the Israeli government and IDF have the balls to destroy most of Lebanon.

War gaming extreme situation
The north is saturated with rocket and missile fire. Attempts are made to take out leviathan gas rig, the haifa Petrochemical area, and multiple power stations farther south. Ramat David airbase is neutralized for some amount of time.

The death and casualty toll really depends on how many people listen to instructions and follow them and stay in a bomb shelter for the time needed. Might be a week or two. .

Depending on who is in charge and level of damage received, the Israeli response is supposed to include the destruction of much of Lebanon, And I imagine ending up with a recreating of the northern security zone pre 2000.

[EliJelly]

Is the destruction of most of Lebanon not a guarantee for full blown attack from Iran? I understand that they'd wanna stay on the sidelines as long as the can, but if Lebanon and Hezbollah are totally obliterated they for sure will be forced to respond.

[Shmueli]

Is the destruction of most of Lebanon not a guarantee for full blown attack from Iran? I understand that they'd wanna stay on the sidelines as long as the can, but if Lebanon and Hezbollah are totally obliterated they for sure will be forced to respond.

Iran getting involved would guarantee a US response.

Although both Iran and the US don't seem interested in fighting a war with one another, Iran has far far more to lose than the US.
The US should make it clear that they would get involved as a deterrent.
A miscalculation by Iran (meaning they don't fully believe that the Joe Biden has the balls to do something) would be the most likely way that they actually end up joining the fight IMO.

Iran would have to get involved for publicity's sake, but they may choose to do something small / symbolic that they can show their people at home.

[yelped]

Is the destruction of most of Lebanon not a guarantee for full blown attack from Iran? I understand that they'd wanna stay on the sidelines as long as the can, but if Lebanon and Hezbollah are totally obliterated they for sure will be forced to respond.

Preemptively destroying most of Lebanon and then fighting a direct war with Iran is likely prettier than sitting around and waiting to get hit by tens of thousands of missiles.

[PlatinumGuy]

you're right I should have written
I don't know what the level of precision there is in the ID system. If Hezbollah were to fire a barrage a massive (1000+) barrage of rockets at say, Haifa, would ID be able to pick out the precision ones fired at the ports and other infrastructure from the rest of the rockets coming in the same general direction?

The port is a big target and easy to take out.

The challenge is electric, water, and military infrastructure, some of which are tiny. Precise missiles can fall 100m+ away.

[Schmidt613]

I don't see how Israel can (naturally) defend itself against an all out war -- doesn't Hezbollah have something like 40,000 missiles aimed out Israel?

[jj1000]

I don't see how Israel can (naturally) defend itself against an all out war -- doesn't Hezbollah have something like 40,000 missiles aimed out Israel?

6th day war style pre-emptive strike?

All out non-stop bombing with all of Israel's capabilities on every single Lebanon military target.

Would they not be justified in doing so, based on the current rocket attacks? Hard to even say Israel started it at this point.

[free123cc]

6th day war style pre-emptive strike?

All out non-stop bombing with all of Israel's capabilities on every single Lebanon military target.

Would they not be justified in doing so, based on the current rocket attacks? Hard to even say Israel started it at this point.

they were justified in doing so a very long time ago...