What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?

[Yehuda57]

The problem is that all this "should have finished the job" rhetoric totally ignores the geopolitical realities that did (and still do!) hamstring what IL is able to do.

The geopolitical "realities" stem from Israel's actions. Look at the difference in statements from the White House after they started this fight, calling for a 21 day ceasefire, which reportedly Bibi was strongly considering, to after the Nasrallah assassination, where they are celebrating it and all but popping champagne. Israel is getting more and more support from the Middle East, and less and less pressure from the West the more they are successful.

[yfr bachur]

You obviously didn’t read my post. I said over and over that it’s not doable and that’s why I don’t see a path to success in Gaza.

I did.
If that the only way you think that IL can be successful, I maintain what I wrote.
Which is, to clarify:
If the only way Israel can be successful in Gaza is via Genocide, then it cannot be successful at all, because if it tried to do that, every arab and muslim nation would send their entire armed forces to defend their muslim brothers, all western aid would stop, and the war would be over very shortly. At the same time, muslims around the world would massacre jews in revenge.
So it wouldn't be successful in the end anyway.

The geopolitical "realities" stem from Israel's actions. Look at the difference in statements from the White House after they started this fight, calling for a 21 day ceasefire, which reportedly Bibi was strongly considering, to after the Nasrallah assassination, where they are celebrating it and all but popping champagne. Israel is getting more and more support from the Middle East, and less and less pressure from the West the more they are successful.

A. I don't give two hoots for any of these "reportedly"s that come from everywhere on anything to do with the war. It's all political smoke signals from either side of the Atlantic. Its all "Hopie Changie..." or Adam Schiff's Russians under every bed... Most have ZERO basis in reality.
B. If you don't think that IL/Bibi have not been needing to thread the very fine needle for the last year between being able to continue the war how they want and getting stopped by insurmountable international pressure...

[Yehuda57]

B. If you don't think that IL/Bibi have not been needing to thread the very fine needle for the last year between being able to continue the war how they want and getting stopped by insurmountable international pressure...

And the greatest successes have been when they've done what was needed without regard for the pressure, like Rafah (albeit 6 months late), Nasrallah, etc.

[Chilla]

@Newhere , welcome.
Keep posting.

[yfr bachur]

And the greatest successes have been when they've done what was needed without regard for the pressure, like Rafah (albeit 6 months late), Nasrallah, etc.

Not denying the fact.
However, what do you think might have happened had IL gone into Rafah 5 months earlier?
Was there a real threat of even greater slow-walking of weapon resupply?
Or a real threat of withholding of US support in the UN?
Just maybe?

[yfr bachur]

This is a couple orders of magnitude less casualties than many were predicting. People were scared that there would be hundreds of soldiers killed per month (week?), not per year.

This may really belong in the main war thread but posting here to show how the casualties compare to other IL wars.

Updating a post I think I made October/November time, when there was the first mass casualty event of the invasion into Gaza.
I've bolded the larger wars/operations. Numbers based on Wikipedia FWIW

War of Independence: 6,372 killed, over about 300 days (9 months 3 weeks two days) DDR (Daily Death Rate) ~21
Suez Crisis: ~200 killed of which 172 Israeli, over 9 days DDR ~22
6 Day War: ~1000 (983 IDF) killed, over 6 days DDR ~167
Yom Kippur War: ~2,800 killed over 19 days DDR ~147 (for comparison purposes needs more research how many were killed in the initial attack ~1000??)
First Israeli invasion of Lebanon 1978: 18 killed over ~7 days. DDR ~2.6
Shalom L'Galil (First Lebanon War): ~368 killed over 4 months (or ~664 over 3 years till the withdrawal to the Litani) DDR ~ 3 (or 0.6)
Second Lebanon War: 121 killed (plus ~45 civilians) over 33 days DDR ~5
Cast Lead (2008-9): 13 killed over 22 days (ground ops 15 days) DDR ~0.6
Amud Anan (2012): 6 killed over 8 days DDR ~0.75
Tzuk Eitan (2014): 73 killed over 50 days DDR ~1.5
Simchas Torah War: ~1707 total of which ~1200 on Simchas Torah over ~360 days DDR - ~4.75 or 1.4 excluding ST

[Chuchum Ainer]

The problem is that all this "should have finished the job" rhetoric totally ignores the geopolitical realities that did (and still do!) hamstring what IL is able to do.
If you get an arms embargo against the state, if you get the UN and other international actors to turn IL into a pariah state ala Saddam's Iraq or North Korea, or international boots on the ground enforcing an internationally imposed solution to the "palestinian issue" It don't do too much good that you whipped the hide of some overgrown arab cowboys playing with rockets and showed them who's boss.
IL had no choice in 1956, heck the IL allies UK and France were humiliated by the US telling them "Put away the guns boys, it's not playtime now". But it was a win. The Israeli objectives were achieved.
1967 the IDF was on the outskirts of both Damascus and Cairo... but was stopped by the world. But it was a win. The Israeli objectives were achieved.
Shalom Lagalil achieved the Israeli objectives. The fact that after many years of international and leftie domestic pressure it withdrew from SL, does not negate that. It only shows, again, that IL cannot rely on international law and forces to secure SL. The same for the 2nd Lebanon War.

Maybe if they wouldn't have been "stopped by the world" in 67, 73 would not have happened.

If they had done in 2014 what they set out to do, 2023 would not have happened.

Like those scruffy little puupies with major attitude issues, the un's ferocious bark is way worse than its completely insignificant bite.

North Kroea and Russia are doing just fine thumbing their noses at them. The houthis, a "rebel group" control 80% or more of Yemen.

Sadam's Iraq was taken out by us military force, not UN sanctions.

Iran, which was being hammered by sanctions, found a sympathetic us administration to ease the pressure.


In short, going back all the way to the un imposed ceasefire in the 1948 war, Israel should take the short term loss of diplomatic cover in exchange for long term security

[Chuchum Ainer]

This may really belong in the main war thread but posting here to show how the casualties compare to other IL wars.

Updating a post I think I made October/November time, when there was the first mass casualty event of the invasion into Gaza.
I've bolded the larger wars/operations. Numbers based on Wikipedia FWIW

War of Independence: 6,372 killed, over about 300 days (9 months 3 weeks two days) DDR (Daily Death Rate) ~21
Suez Crisis: ~200 killed of which 172 Israeli, over 9 days DDR ~22
6 Day War: ~1000 (983 IDF) killed, over 6 days DDR ~167
Yom Kippur War: ~2,800 killed over 19 days DDR ~147 (for comparison purposes needs more research how many were killed in the initial attack ~1000??)
First Israeli invasion of Lebanon 1978: 18 killed over ~7 days. DDR ~2.6
Shalom L'Galil (First Lebanon War): ~368 killed over 4 months (or ~664 over 3 years till the withdrawal to the Litani) DDR ~ 3 (or 0.6)
Second Lebanon War: 121 killed (plus ~45 civilians) over 33 days DDR ~5
Cast Lead (2008-9): 13 killed over 22 days (ground ops 15 days) DDR ~0.6
Amud Anan (2012): 6 killed over 8 days DDR ~0.75
Tzuk Eitan (2014): 73 killed over 50 days DDR ~1.5
Simchas Torah War: ~1707 total of which ~1200 on Simchas Torah over ~360 days DDR - ~4.75 or 1.4 excluding ST

I thank hashem for the low casualty count.

That said, what your chart proves is that a ddr is meaningless, as the lreason this was has such a low one is because it's dragged on longer than any other (barring the first Lebanon war)

[Chuchum Ainer]

The geopolitical "realities" stem from Israel's actions. Look at the difference in statements from the White House after they started this fight, calling for a 21 day ceasefire, which reportedly Bibi was strongly considering, to after the Nasrallah assassination, where they are celebrating it and all but popping champagne. Israel is getting more and more support from the Middle East, and less and less pressure from the West the more they are successful.

Side point, the domestic support is good too. The protests against the gov are the lowest they've been in years. Israelis want their gov to do something. Anything.

[Yehuda57]

Side point, the domestic support is good too. The protests against the gov are the lowest they've been in years. Israelis want their gov to do something. Anything.

Part of that is that there hasn't been an argument about the north, only about whether to attack earlier or later.

[yawn]

North Kroea and Russia are doing just fine thumbing their noses at them. The houthis, a "rebel group" control 80% or more of Yemen.

Yes. Dictators, Oligarchs, and Terrorists can thumb their noses at the UN and the world and continue to wield wealth and power. But the people living under their rule (and don't let Tucker convince you that they have great bread) all suffer immensely.

[aygart]

Yes. Dictators, Oligarchs, and Terrorists can thumb their noses at the UN and the world and continue to wield wealth and power. But the people living under their rule (and don't let Tucker convince you that they have great bread) all suffer immensely.

A lot comes down to having a reliable partner as a permanent member on the security council

[Just A Jew]

A lot comes down to having a reliable partner with no conscience or care as a permanent member on the security council

FTFY. The downside to having the moral highground.

[Newhere]

@Newhere To your point about guerrilla armies coming out on top, can you point to any example where any of them were dealt with like Hamas was dealt with in Gaza or like Hezbollah has been hit in Lebabnon?

You would have to be more specific about what you mean with being dealt with like Hamas and Hezbollah.

[Newhere]

Great, he understands what its purpose is. That doesn't define what victory is.

Victory is when you acheive the goals that you set out to acheive.

Hamas is clearly victorious in this: they have divided the Israelis and pretty much brought the government down to its knees to the point where they would do almost anything to get the hostages out of Gaza - including leaving Hamas in power and letting them rebuild.

Israel is sick and tired of this war. We are at the point where we are doing the 'caretaking' i.e. waiting around to be blown up and have no clear path to victory.

Hamas doesn't need the approval of the arabs in Gaza. It it isn't democratic - that is its strength in this case. They can do whatever they want and they don't have to answer to anyone. So they can just sit out and wait until the Israelis throw in the towel. A matter of time - (basically the question is how long Netanyahu can distract everyone from the fact that the war is going nowhere)...

[Newhere]

Why does victory need to be permanent in order for it to be considered a win? Why is this conversation so binary? Either we achieve everlasting peace, or we failed.
[/quote

Because guerilla strategy is exactly that. Relentless and constant attacks even in on a small scale until the regular army just gives in.

The same thing happened the other way around in 1946-7. Lechi-Haganah-Etzel drove the brits nuts with constant minor attacks until the British just gave up and went home.

[Newhere]

Again, I’m not advocating that since it’s unethical and not doable but technically speaking no Palestinians = no terror from Gaza.

Unethical? Why?

not doable - ok I can see there is an argument to that.

[Newhere]

The  Malayan Emergency is usually the example given/taught for successful counter insurgency.


See : https://www.amazon.com/Learning-Eat-Soup-Knife-Counterinsurgency/dp/0226567702

And look how they did it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malayan_Emergency#:~:text=The%20British%20attempted,%5B27%5D

[Just A Jew]

Victory is when you acheive the goals that you set out to acheive.

Hamas is clearly victorious in this: they have divided the Israelis and pretty much brought the government down to its knees to the point where they would do almost anything to get the hostages out of Gaza - including leaving Hamas in power and letting them rebuild.

Israel is sick and tired of this war. We are at the point where we are doing the 'caretaking' i.e. waiting around to be blown up and have no clear path to victory.

Hamas doesn't need the approval of the arabs in Gaza. It it isn't democratic - that is its strength in this case. They can do whatever they want and they don't have to answer to anyone. So they can just sit out and wait until the Israelis throw in the towel. A matter of time - (basically the question is how long Netanyahu can distract everyone from the fact that the war is going nowhere)...

There are a ton of assumptions in here that are just not factual and contradict what you've previously posted. How much of Hamas is left to wait  for Israel to throw in the towel if Gaza is decimated? Also, Hamas divided the Israeli population? Where were you on Oct 6? No clear path to victory? Who decides what victory is? And why is absolute annihilation the only thing you'll accept as a win?

[Ver hut gazugt]

Victory is when you acheive the goals that you set out to acheive.

Hamas is clearly victorious in this: they have divided the Israelis and pretty much brought the government down to its knees to the point where they would do almost anything to get the hostages out of Gaza - including leaving Hamas in power and letting them rebuild.

Israel is sick and tired of this war. We are at the point where we are doing the 'caretaking' i.e. waiting around to be blown up and have no clear path to victory.

Hamas doesn't need the approval of the arabs in Gaza. It it isn't democratic - that is its strength in this case. They can do whatever they want and they don't have to answer to anyone. So they can just sit out and wait until the Israelis throw in the towel. A matter of time - (basically the question is how long Netanyahu can distract everyone from the fact that the war is going nowhere)...

way too much pessimism. You can make an argument that victory has not come yet. But just to dismiss all that was done. As if all is already lost. Sorry no can do.