What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?

[Yehuda57]

Yup...though even more mainstream predictions were way off. Predictions of 15K Israeli deaths chalilah. Days without electricity. Government opposition to fighting in the north. And then government opposition to stopping fighting in the north. It's all too funny

Yup. B"H.

Which ties into the discussion in the general war thread, if the powers that be in Israel knew what they could do to Hezbollah in a matter of days, how did they allow the entire north to bombed for a year and for 100,000 citizens to be homeless for a year, irreparably damaging dozens of communities, businesses, families, etc.?

[Chester7]

Yup. B"H.

Which ties into the discussion in the general war thread, if the powers that be in Israel knew what they could do to Hezbollah in a matter of days, how did they allow the entire north to bombed for a year and for 100,000 citizens to be homeless for a year, irreparably damaging dozens of communities, businesses, families, etc.?

IIRC they said Israel prematurely detonated the pagers because they feared Hezbollah had caught on. Which means very likely they were preparing to do other things, but they didn't want to lose this. Just a possible reason why they waited.

[Just A Jew]

Yup. B"H.

Which ties into the discussion in the general war thread, if the powers that be in Israel knew what they could do to Hezbollah in a matter of days, how did they allow the entire north to bombed for a year and for 100,000 citizens to be homeless for a year, irreparably damaging dozens of communities, businesses, families, etc.?

I seem to recall reading somewhere that Hezbollah started using the pagers and walkie talkies sometime early this year. Another major factor in the war against Hezbollah was how quickly Israel took apart their leadership. We have no idea when this became possible.

Yes, we are allowed to have opinions and speculate (I do all the time), but @ExGingi has a point. Monday morning quarterbacking with the limited information we have is pretty pointless. Bibi is a political monster, no one denies that. I don't know that anyone else has a track record of doing his job better, though. It seems like every time we prop up a former general or up-and-coming right wing star as the guy who will get it right, they implode as soon as they have any bit of power.

I do like the Trump/Bibi comparisons. Some people love them and think they are the bees knees. Others hate them passionately. Most of us are stuck in the middle, saying, "I don't really like the guy, but no one's giving me a better option."

[Yehuda57]

I seem to recall reading somewhere that Hezbollah started using the pagers and walkie talkies sometime early this year. Another major factor in the war against Hezbollah was how quickly Israel took apart their leadership. We have no idea when this became possible.

Yes, we are allowed to have opinions and speculate (I do all the time), but @ExGingi has a point. Monday morning quarterbacking with the limited information we have is pretty pointless. Bibi is a political monster, no one denies that. I don't know that anyone else has a track record of doing his job better, though. It seems like every time we prop up a former general or up-and-coming right wing star as the guy who will get it right, they implode as soon as they have any bit of power.

I do like the Trump/Bibi comparisons. Some people love them and think they are the bees knees. Others hate them passionately. Most of us are stuck in the middle, saying, "I don't really like the guy, but no one's giving me a better option."

They did get *more* beepers this year, but the operation was in place before October 7th. They also clearly had much of the intelligence and capability to kill the leaders in place before. They were planning this war for almost 20 years.

This is not Monday morning QBing, this was an intense argument *Bibi* leaked to the press right after October 7th. Gallant, knowing Israel was ready for this war, wanted to attack right away, Bibi says no.

I don't think people realize just how crazy the north is. Imagine the entire Lakewood being uprooted, people having to live in hotels, 4-5 to a room, kids in make shift schools in the hotel basement, parents either not having jobs or commuting hours each day. Meanwhile houses are being destroyed, in some neighborhoods 3/4 are uninhabitable. Then after 15 months they say you can come back, but, "oh, btw, the dudes firing at you and destroying your houses? We didn't actually get rid of them."

[Just A Jew]

Do you believe there is a way to fully eradicate Hezbollah without occupying Lebanon and invading Syria (and possibly other countries)?

[Yehuda57]

Do you believe there is a way to fully eradicate Hezbollah without occupying Lebanon and invading Syria (and possibly other countries)?

No, but they have not cleared the area along border.

[aygart]

No, but they have not cleared the area along border.

This. If they needed to keep the whole north evacuated for a year and then the whole thing collapses like a deck of cards then why did they wait?

[Just A Jew]

No, but they have not cleared the area along border.

Cleared of what? Hezbollah fighters? To what end? If you don't eradicate the organization, what stops them from coming back near the border? How will Israel deal with that then?

[Yehuda57]

Cleared of what? Hezbollah fighters? To what end? If you don't eradicate the organization, what stops them from coming back near the border? How will Israel deal with that then?

To the end that it is safe. Israel is not saying, "we've eradicated enough of Hezbollah it is safe for our citizens to return", they are saying, "were relying on Lebanon and Unifil to make sure it is safe".

[ExGingi]

To the end that it is safe. Israel is not saying, "we've eradicated enough of Hezbollah it is safe for our citizens to return", they are saying, "were relying on Lebanon and Unifil to make sure it is safe".

Try some second order thinking for size.

What if this is all about sending a strong and clear message to the US and France to stop sabotaging Israeli security operations?

How long hasn't Lebanon (a compromise creation of the Sykes-Picot agreement, almost a gift to France - there's a strong reason behind France's intensive involvement in Lebanon in comparison to any other ME or global issues) hasn't had a president? What parts of the Lebanese government and economy are functioning (independent of Hizbullah)?

This isn't a two dimensional game. This is (at least) 4 dimensional.

[yfr bachur]

To the end that it is safe. Israel is not saying, "we've eradicated enough of Hezbollah it is safe for our citizens to return", they are saying, "were relying on Lebanon and Unifil to make sure it is safe".

Not quite.
It's signing on to a process, that IF it goes till its concieved conclusion, will end up with a totally disarmed hizbolla, a vast change in the sectarian balance of power in Lebanon - up to and including them joining the Abraham Accords. All the while Israel maintains freedom to withdraw completely from the deal if the deal is violated, and thy more or less decide that by themselves.