Author Topic: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?  (Read 4938 times)

Offline avromie7

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #40 on: July 04, 2024, 10:36:41 AM »
Hezbollah has regular army positions. The IDF Should start blowing up their bases and barracks.
Do you think they aren't already?
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline LongTimeLurker

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #41 on: July 04, 2024, 11:42:50 AM »
I think it will be difficult but it really depends on how Israel chooses to react. If Israel destroys Lebanon civillian wise I think the war will end much quicker, but if they just blow up South Lebanon I don't see that happening. Remember that from 1982-2000 there was the Southern Lebanese Army who Israel partnered with [for better or worse] which made that entire scenario different.

As for casualties: There will be casualties but I think the hysteria is overrated. Look at today (July 4 2024 for future readers), Hizbullah fired 200 odd rockets and drones as far south as Akko. 2 minor injuries from people running to the safe rooms. Yes, lots of fires. Yes lots of damage. But the hysterics of a full war with hizbullah and the 10,000 civillian casualties needs to die down.

Updated to 1 army casualty.
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Offline theblaide

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #42 on: July 04, 2024, 05:44:59 PM »
Do you think they aren't already?
I haven't heard any reports of "200 terrorists killed in overnight bombing" have you?

Offline davidd75

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #43 on: July 05, 2024, 11:16:40 AM »
Hezbollah has regular army positions. The IDF Should start blowing up their bases and barracks.

That only goes so far.  Dont they also have lots of  intricate undergrounds tunnels they can just hid if their is a full Israeli invasion?

Offline davidd75

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #44 on: July 05, 2024, 11:19:44 AM »
I think it will be difficult but it really depends on how Israel chooses to react. If Israel destroys Lebanon civillian wise I think the war will end much quicker, but if they just blow up South Lebanon I don't see that happening. Remember that from 1982-2000 there was the Southern Lebanese Army who Israel partnered with [for better or worse] which made that entire scenario different.

As for casualties: There will be casualties but I think the hysteria is overrated. Look at today (July 4 2024 for future readers), Hizbullah fired 200 odd rockets and drones as far south as Akko. 2 minor injuries from people running to the safe rooms. Yes, lots of fires. Yes lots of damage. But the hysterics of a full war with hizbullah and the 10,000 civillian casualties needs to die down.

Maybe I am wrong but from what I hear Hezbolla can inflict much greater civilian casualties if it chooses to but is holding back due to fear of stronger Israeli reprisals.

Offline LongTimeLurker

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #45 on: July 05, 2024, 12:04:04 PM »
Maybe I am wrong but from what I hear Hezbolla can inflict much greater civilian casualties if it chooses to but is holding back due to fear of stronger Israeli reprisals.

You have to differentiate between hysteria and reality.

Offline davidd75

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #46 on: July 05, 2024, 04:23:14 PM »
You have to differentiate between hysteria and reality.

isnt the reality that Hezbollah has precision missiles that can target high populated civilian areas if an all out war breaks out?

Offline LongTimeLurker

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #47 on: July 07, 2024, 02:17:09 AM »
isnt the reality that Hezbollah has precision missiles that can target high populated civilian areas if an all out war breaks out?

The north will be blanketed by rocket fire no question
Once you go farther south there is a limit of how many missiles hey have, and you have to assume some success rate of iron dome. Also if people follow home front command guidelines you have a much better chance of staying alive. There is a great Hebrew twitter thread here

https://x.com/DanielBachmat/status/1761367678021763228


I guess.my point there is a difference between hysteria and being prepared
Making assumptions that you will be stuck in a shelter for a week and therefore making sure you have enough water, electricity, emergency lighting and backup power are prudent. Assuming everyone will die is not.

Online yfr bachur

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #48 on: July 08, 2024, 05:55:28 AM »
The north will be blanketed by rocket fire no question
Once you go farther south there is a limit of how many missiles hey have, and you have to assume some success rate of iron dome. Also if people follow home front command guidelines you have a much better chance of staying alive. There is a great Hebrew twitter thread here

https://x.com/DanielBachmat/status/1761367678021763228


I guess.my point there is a difference between hysteria and being prepared
Making assumptions that you will be stuck in a shelter for a week and therefore making sure you have enough water, electricity, emergency lighting and backup power are prudent. Assuming everyone will die is not.

Filter blocks Twitter, so cant see...

The north is much of the Galil, tons of people live there, + pretty important infrastructure.
Older sections of cities and towns have major issues with shelter availability
Do we have any idea how many interceptors IL has? I would assume exponentially less than potential targets. considering the cost differential
Anyway the question was what would an ALL OUT war look like. That assumes, to my reading, neither side holding back anything. Not likely, but more or less worst case scenario

Offline Moshe Green

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #49 on: July 08, 2024, 07:15:35 AM »
Wikipedia article on the 2006 war. We could assume it will be similar with maybe more rockets with farther range and a bit more accuracy.

The 2006 Lebanon War, also called the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War and known in Lebanon as the July War and in Israel as the Second Lebanon War, was a 34-day military conflict in Lebanon, northern Israel and the Golan Heights. The principal parties were Hezbollah paramilitary forces and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The conflict started on 12 July 2006, and continued until a United Nations-brokered ceasefire went into effect in the morning on 14 August 2006, though it formally ended on 8 September 2006 when Israel lifted its naval blockade of Lebanon. Due to unprecedented Iranian military support to Hezbollah before and during the war, some consider it the first round of the Iran–Israel proxy conflict, rather than a continuation of the Arab–Israeli conflict.
...
The conflict is believed to have killed between 1,191 and 1,300 Lebanese people, and 165 Israelis. It severely damaged Lebanese civil infrastructure, and displaced approximately one million Lebanese and 300,000–500,000 Israelis.
...
During the war, the Hezbollah rocket force fired between 3,970 and 4,228 rockets at a rate of more than 100 per day, unprecedented since the Iran–Iraq War. About 95% of these were 122 mm (4.8 in) Katyusha artillery rockets, which carried warheads up to 30 kg (66 lb) and had a range of up to 30 km (19 mi). An estimated 23% of these rockets hit cities and built-up areas across northern Israel, while the remainder hit open areas.

Cities hit were Haifa, Hadera, Nazareth, Tiberias, Nahariya, Safed, Shaghur, Afula, Kiryat Shmona, Beit She'an, Karmiel, Acre, and Ma'alot-Tarshiha, as well as dozens of towns, kibbutzim, moshavim, and Druze and Israeli-Arab villages. The northern West Bank was also hit.

Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz ordered commanders to prepare civil defense plans. One million Israelis had to stay near or in bomb shelters or security rooms, with some 250,000 civilians evacuating the north and relocating to other areas of the country.
...
Hezbollah engaged in guerrilla warfare with IDF ground forces, fighting from well-fortified positions, often in urban areas, and attacking with small, well-armed units. Hezbollah fighters were highly trained, and were equipped with flak jackets, night-vision goggles, communications equipment, and sometimes with Israeli uniforms and equipment. An Israeli soldier who participated in the war said that Hezbollah fighters were "nothing like Hamas or the Palestinians. They are trained and highly qualified. All of us were kind of surprised."
...
Hezbollah fighters often used tunnels to emerge quickly, fire an anti-tank missile, and then disappear again.
...
Israel never declared war on Lebanon, and said it only attacked Lebanese governmental institutions which it suspected of being used by Hezbollah. The Lebanese government played a role in shaping the conflict.
...
During the war, the Lebanese Armed Forces did not engage in direct hostilities, but threatened retaliation if IDF troops pushed too far northward into Lebanon. In several instances, Lebanese troops fired anti-aircraft weapons at Israeli aircraft and attempted to disrupt landing operations.
...
Within hours of Israeli's bombing of Lebanon on 13 July 2006, hundreds of protesters gathered in Tel Aviv to oppose the war. On 22 July, about 2,000 people, including many Arab citizens of Israel, demanded an end to the offensive during a protest march in Tel Aviv's Rabin Square. On 5 August, some Israelis demonstrated in Tel Aviv, including former Knesset members of the Meretz party, Mossi Raz, Naomi Hazan and Yael Dayan.
...



Offline davidd75

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Re: What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?
« Reply #50 on: July 08, 2024, 04:59:14 PM »
Hezbollah has regular army positions. The IDF Should start blowing up their bases and barracks.

what about their underground network how large and sophisticated is that compared to Hamas?

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