What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?

[LongTimeLurker]

A lot of these were the result of one missile.. the whole Megiddo through Harish was one missile, the whole TEL Aviv area was one missile.

When you put it in the context of we are bombing their strongholds and killing their leadership, it's not the expected response.

[AsherO]

So skip this?

Too soon to conclude that. We still have a lot more to daven for, but Israel has the momentum to keep hitting Hezbollah hard.

[Chester7]

Too soon to conclude that. We still have a lot more to daven for, but Israel has the momentum to keep hitting Hezbollah hard.

Anyway to do that without a ground invasion?

[AsherO]

Anyway to do that without a ground invasion?

Before the pager incident and the events since then, that seemed unlikely. People are talking about it now, not sure how realistic it is because a lot depends on how the momentum continues the next few days.

I’m not saying it’s likely, but if Israel gets to destroy a significant part of Hezbollah’s arsenal (especially the precise missiles) and gets a deal that includes a kill zone south of the Litani, that’s something they might go with. Most of the variables in this equation are not publicly known.

[AsherO]

Anyway to do that without a ground invasion?

Hmmm @Chester7

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840230377803203048

[Chester7]

Hmmm @Chester7

I guess they think not...

[LongTimeLurker]

Homefront Command to allow schools in parts of Haifa and yokneam to reopen as long as there is enough safe areas for students.
 
Farther north and the krayot still no
I guess they really did quite the job. כל הכבוד לצה"ל

[yfr bachur]

Homefront Command to allow schools in parts of Haifa and yokneam to reopen as long as there is enough safe areas for students.
 
Farther north and the krayot still no
I guess they really did quite the job. כל הכבוד לצה"ל

וְזָכַרְתָּ אֶת ה' אֱ-לֹהֶיךָ כִּי הוּא הַנֹּתֵן לְךָ כֹּחַ לַעֲשׂוֹת חָיִל

We all forget this sometimes...
...we need to do, but the hatzlacha is from Hashem.
We probably won't ever learn the full picture of what happened over the past couple of weeks, and the years leading up to it, but the level of siyata deshmaya that was needed for all to fall into place for the successes...
From the foresight to create shell companies, to the fact that the shell co got the contract, that B"H all pilots have returned safely, from many missions over enemy territory, that hashem gave the chochma to the IL scientists to create the Iron Dome, and David's Sling, and Arrow, and the Trophy system that protects tanks from RPGs...
ורבות הם ואי אפשר לפרטם....

[Newhere]

Reading through this thread. I am surprised to see that the general attitude is that Israel is winning this.

No we are not. We are losing this badly.

Stunts (yes even top class stunts like the beepers) do not win a war.

Look at Gaza right now. The place is pretty much destroyed. It will take decades for them to rebuild, but there is no end in sight. The Israelis just keep on losing more and more soldiers and we all know that in the end Netanyahu will make a 'peace deal' or 'truce' or whatever you want to call it and then it will be back to what it always was.

Lebanon is no different. We know Israel has much more firepower and can clearly overwhelm Hezbollah and the Lebanese army is a direct face to face conflict.

But that is the whole point of guerilla warfare. You don't go face to face. You hide and wear out the enemy with constant small attacks.

I am all pro blowing Lebanon to bits. But it isn't worth our soldiers lives (and it will cost us hundreds more) if we aren't going to win. And we are not.

[AsherO]

וְזָכַרְתָּ אֶת ה' אֱ-לֹהֶיךָ כִּי הוּא הַנֹּתֵן לְךָ כֹּחַ לַעֲשׂוֹת חָיִל

We all forget this sometimes...
...we need to do, but the hatzlacha is from Hashem.
We probably won't ever learn the full picture of what happened over the past couple of weeks, and the years leading up to it, but the level of siyata deshmaya that was needed for all to fall into place for the successes...
From the foresight to create shell companies, to the fact that the shell co got the contract, that B"H all pilots have returned safely, from many missions over enemy territory, that hashem gave the chochma to the IL scientists to create the Iron Dome, and David's Sling, and Arrow, and the Trophy system that protects tanks from RPGs...
ורבות הם ואי אפשר לפרטם....

Many miracles. Netanyahu finished his speech at the UN misquoting:



He has also said בעזרת השם countless times in this war.

[Just A Jew]

Reading through this thread. I am surprised to see that the general attitude is that Israel is winning this.

No we are not. We are losing this badly.

Stunts (yes even top class stunts like the beepers) do not win a war.

Look at Gaza right now. The place is pretty much destroyed. It will take decades for them to rebuild, but there is no end in sight. The Israelis just keep on losing more and more soldiers and we all know that in the end Netanyahu will make a 'peace deal' or 'truce' or whatever you want to call it and then it will be back to what it always was.

Lebanon is no different. We know Israel has much more firepower and can clearly overwhelm Hezbollah and the Lebanese army is a direct face to face conflict.

But that is the whole point of guerilla warfare. You don't go face to face. You hide and wear out the enemy with constant small attacks.

I am all pro blowing Lebanon to bits. But it isn't worth our soldiers lives (and it will cost us hundreds more) if we aren't going to win. And we are not.

You're looking at "winning" with a very narrow definition. Sustaining losses doesn't mean you lost the war. Sides enter a war with objectives. Israel's were to prevent another 10/7 from happening again, and to provide a better security reality for residents, primarily near those living near Gaza and Lebanon, but secondarily throughout the country. You can argue the costs are too high and/or the objectives aren't worthwhile, but you cannot argue that residents of Israel will be less secure at the end of this war. Objectively, Israel is winning its war. It's just not a war you want fought.

[AsherO]

Reading through this thread. I am surprised to see that the general attitude is that Israel is winning this.

No we are not. We are losing this badly.

Stunts (yes even top class stunts like the beepers) do not win a war.

Look at Gaza right now. The place is pretty much destroyed. It will take decades for them to rebuild, but there is no end in sight. The Israelis just keep on losing more and more soldiers and we all know that in the end Netanyahu will make a 'peace deal' or 'truce' or whatever you want to call it and then it will be back to what it always was.

Lebanon is no different. We know Israel has much more firepower and can clearly overwhelm Hezbollah and the Lebanese army is a direct face to face conflict.

But that is the whole point of guerilla warfare. You don't go face to face. You hide and wear out the enemy with constant small attacks.

I am all pro blowing Lebanon to bits. But it isn't worth our soldiers lives (and it will cost us hundreds more) if we aren't going to win. And we are not.

The only win Hamas has is the hostages, and IMHO Israel’s poor management of that is partially to blame. Gaza in shambles serves Israel well, Hamas has been decimated and is no longer a threat.

You’re right that a few stunts won’t win the war in the north, but the more rockets/missiles/launchers Israel neutralizes, the less of a threat they pose. The extent to such Israel has already and continues to chip away at many levels of Hezbollah leadership means they’re unable to efficiently organize the significant terror commandos they have. Basically, Israel has the momentum and has already dealt significant blows to Hezbollah, but there’s a lot more to be done to claim victory.

[yawn]

Reading through this thread. I am surprised to see that the general attitude is that Israel is winning this.

No we are not. We are losing this badly.

Stunts (yes even top class stunts like the beepers) do not win a war.

Look at Gaza right now. The place is pretty much destroyed. It will take decades for them to rebuild, but there is no end in sight. The Israelis just keep on losing more and more soldiers and we all know that in the end Netanyahu will make a 'peace deal' or 'truce' or whatever you want to call it and then it will be back to what it always was.

Lebanon is no different. We know Israel has much more firepower and can clearly overwhelm Hezbollah and the Lebanese army is a direct face to face conflict.

But that is the whole point of guerilla warfare. You don't go face to face. You hide and wear out the enemy with constant small attacks.

I am all pro blowing Lebanon to bits. But it isn't worth our soldiers lives (and it will cost us hundreds more) if we aren't going to win. And we are not.

Zoom out a little. The biggest existential threat Israel faces is a nuclear Iran. By most accounts, Israel has the ability to strike Irans nuclear sites, but have been reticent because of the threat of an army on their northern border called Hezbollah. They are now leaderless, have had their supposed ability to shoot 3000 rockets daily reduced to 300, lost many of their best fighters, and are in disarray. Can they be what ISIS is now, a shell of their former selves with the ability to inflict significant damage sporadically? Absolutely. And that’s a big deal. But Israel can, if they play the next few weeks rights, and obviously bs”d, remove a threat that they have been facing for years, and enable themselves to handle the Iranian nuclear threat if need be. That’s a huge win.

[justaregularguy]

Also, welcome to the forums
Your username won’t age well

[Euclid]

Also, welcome to the forums
Your username won’t age well

He did come out of newhere

[Just A Jew]

Also, welcome to the forums
Your username won’t age well

2.5 years and counting.

[justaregularguy]

2.5 years and counting.

yea just noticed the join date
Does that mean he agreed with everything we said till now.. wow..

[aygart]

yea just noticed the join date
Does that mean he agreed with everything we said till now.. wow..

Or just not new here

[EliJelly]

By most accounts, Israel has the ability to strike Irans nuclear sites

On their own? Link that here please.

[yawn]

On their own? Link that here please.

https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/jan/25/israel-iran-threat-options
Yes, it did/will require training and assistance from the US, but I believe the purpose is for Israel to do it on its own if/when cv need be. I may be wrong, but the rhetoric over the past few days has been about how a hezbollah demise opens Iran up to an attack on their refineries.
https://m.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-821259?