What Would an ALL OUT Hezbollah-Israel War Look Like?

[Chuchum Ainer]

Many miracles. Netanyahu finished his speech at the UN misquoting:



He has also said בעזרת השם countless times in this war.

I strongly caution against using the default sefaria translation. The words you are screenshotting are from "The Contemporary Torah: A Gender-Sensitive Adaptation of the JPS Translation" https://jps.org/books/contemporary-torah/.

Whether in general Sefaria is kosher, considering it's founded and run by people who don't necessarily believe in the holiness of the texts and are in the business of commissioning and promulgating "contemporary" versions of Torah such as the book above, is another good question.

[YitzyS]

I strongly caution against using the default sefaria translation. The words you are screenshotting are from "The Contemporary Torah: A Gender-Sensitive Adaptation of the JPS Translation" https://jps.org/books/contemporary-torah/.

Whether in general Sefaria is kosher, considering it's founded and run by people who don't necessarily believe in the holiness of the texts and are in the business of commissioning and promulgating "contemporary" versions of Torah such as the book above, is another good question.

+100

[EliJelly]

https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/jan/25/israel-iran-threat-options
Yes, it did/will require training and assistance from the US, but I believe the purpose is for Israel to do it on its own if/when cv need be. I may be wrong, but the rhetoric over the past few days has been about how a hezbollah demise opens Iran up to an attack on their refineries.

They definitely have the refueling capabilities to reach Iran which is closer than Yemen, but from what I remember, a bombardment to take out nuclear facilities takes a full squadron of heavy bombers which Israel doesn't posses. Hence why in your article these exercises were always joint US-Israeli.     

[yawn]

They definitely have the refueling capabilities to reach Iran which is closer than Yemen, but from what I remember, a bombardment to take out nuclear facilities takes a full squadron of heavy bombers which Israel doesn't posses. Hence why in your article these exercises were always joint US-Israeli.   

I never got that deep in the weeds, so idk. But I would be surprised if at this point they didn’t acquire the requisite aircraft to neutralize a nuclear threat, and I’d be equally surprised if they would publicize it.
But that notwithstanding, whether or not they would need American assistance, Hezbollah was always an impediment to an eventual strike, and it now seems very plausible that can change.
I’ve been with you on the anti-hawkish, proceed with caution vis a vis Iran opinion. I don’t think it’s the kind of thing you do on a whim, cuz you feel like your Air Force is on a roll. But for the long game, the past 2 weeks in Lebanon can loom very large down the road.

[LongTimeLurker]

Reading through this thread. I am surprised to see that the general attitude is that Israel is winning this.

No we are not. We are losing this badly.

Stunts (yes even top class stunts like the beepers) do not win a war.

Look at Gaza right now. The place is pretty much destroyed. It will take decades for them to rebuild, but there is no end in sight. The Israelis just keep on losing more and more soldiers and we all know that in the end Netanyahu will make a 'peace deal' or 'truce' or whatever you want to call it and then it will be back to what it always was.

Lebanon is no different. We know Israel has much more firepower and can clearly overwhelm Hezbollah and the Lebanese army is a direct face to face conflict.

But that is the whole point of guerilla warfare. You don't go face to face. You hide and wear out the enemy with constant small attacks.

I am all pro blowing Lebanon to bits. But it isn't worth our soldiers lives (and it will cost us hundreds more) if we aren't going to win. And we are not.

Call me skeptical of an account that comes out of nowhere to make a demoralizing first post.

We are winning. Full stop. The assassination of hizbullah leadership and the continued bombardment of Lebanon at targets is the major change of this war.

If Israel has really destroyed the majority of hizbullah fire power, and anecdotally it seems to have, then a major strategic threat to the safety of the entire country has been removed.

At this point a ground incursion like 82 or 06 is not as necessary. Just getting to the point where you take over all the high points where they shoot anti tank missiles into towns is enough.

Gaza has barely fired a missile. The army has a caretaker presence in there at this point.

[Moshe Green]

Call me skeptical of an account that comes out of nowhere to make a demoralizing first post.

We are winning. Full stop. The assassination of hizbullah leadership and the continued bombardment of Lebanon at targets is the major change of this war.

If Israel has really destroyed the majority of hizbullah fire power, and anecdotally it seems to have, then a major strategic threat to the safety of the entire country has been removed.

At this point a ground incursion like 82 or 06 is not as necessary. Just getting to the point where you take over all the high points where they shoot anti tank missiles into towns is enough.

Gaza has barely fired a missile. The army has a caretaker presence in there at this point.

B"H! No rockets the whole last night! TYH!

[LongTimeLurker]

@jj1000 @Dan
This is just a hunch but can you check the IP for @Newhere
I don't think he's really in beit shemesh (and if I'm wrong then I'm just following the old adage from Goldfinger: once is circumstance, twice is happenstance, but three times is enemy action!)

[mevinyavin]

yea just noticed the join date
Does that mean he agreed with everything we said till now.. wow..

And with a join date like that, he only spent 2.5h on the forum. What self-control! 

[Newhere]

You're looking at "winning" with a very narrow definition. Sustaining losses doesn't mean you lost the war. Sides enter a war with objectives. Israel's were to prevent another 10/7 from happening again, and to provide a better security reality for residents, primarily near those living near Gaza and Lebanon, but secondarily throughout the country. You can argue the costs are too high and/or the objectives aren't worthwhile, but you cannot argue that residents of Israel will be less secure at the end of this war. Objectively, Israel is winning its war. It's just not a war you want fought.

No. I am looking at winning as actually beating the enemy - i.e. they never come back to attack you again. Not falling for its trap. On simchas torah as the rockets were going overhead, I told my friends in shul that there is no chance we would win this.

And a year later, I still say that.

Winning means the enemy no longer exists. Not stunts. Hezbollah certainly has sufferred some high profile losses. But that will not make them dissappear. In the end of the day, there is no way for Israel to keep Hezbollah away from the border without boots on the ground. And no, the high profile stunts will not stop that being a bloodbath.

[JMHO]

No. I am looking at winning as actually beating the enemy - i.e. they never come back to attack you again.

How does one accomplish this?

[Newhere]

The only win Hamas has is the hostages, and IMHO Israel’s poor management of that is partially to blame. Gaza in shambles serves Israel well, Hamas has been decimated and is no longer a threat.

You’re right that a few stunts won’t win the war in the north, but the more rockets/missiles/launchers Israel neutralizes, the less of a threat they pose. The extent to such Israel has already and continues to chip away at many levels of Hezbollah leadership means they’re unable to efficiently organize the significant terror commandos they have. Basically, Israel has the momentum and has already dealt significant blows to Hezbollah, but there’s a lot more to be done to claim victory.

The whole point of the hostages it exactly that. Hamas knew exactly what it was doing. It will wear out Israel until we just give in to them.

And chipping away at Hezbollah's combat capabilities will not destroy it. It will just push them towards more guerilla tactics.

I challenge you to find me an example of a case where a regular army has beaten a well organized guerilla force. That isn't how it works. Eventually the regular army caves in and makes a deal with the guerillas. At least in all cases I am familiar with.

[yfr bachur]

I don't believe Bibi, or any right wing govt will give in to Hamas again.
They've learned their lesson.

You have a funny definition of victory. Victory ≠ vanquish. Most wars are not won that way.
The war of independence was a win. The Arabs survived.
1956 was arguably a win. Egypt survived.
1967 was a win in anyone's book. The Arabs survived.
1973, was at the end of it, at least resolved in ILs favor. The arabs survived.

In world history, just off the top of my head:
WWI - a win for the allies, the great powers more or less survived.
The Spanish-American war, a win for the US, Spain survived.
1812, the US argueably won. GB survived.
1776 the US won, GB survived.

And if the guerrillas are outside your territory, and you secure the border, it's a much different story than guerillas within the territory.

The threat will never go away. But it can be managed. and that for me at least is a win.
By your definition, Israel will never win.

[yfr bachur]

They definitely have the refueling capabilities to reach Iran which is closer than Yemen, but from what I remember, a bombardment to take out nuclear facilities takes a full squadron of heavy bombers which Israel doesn't posses. Hence why in your article these exercises were always joint US-Israeli.   

Nor the largest bunker-busters like MOP, which were created specifically for the task of destroying hardened WMD sites.

[Newhere]

@jj1000 @Dan
This is just a hunch but can you check the IP for @Newhere
I don't think he's really in beit shemesh (and if I'm wrong then I'm just following the old adage from Goldfinger: once is circumstance, twice is happenstance, but three times is enemy action!)

I really am in Bet Shemesh (ramah alef). Interested to know what your hunch was? A Hezbollah troll?

Wow!

[LongTimeLurker]

I really am in Bet Shemesh (ramah alef). Interested to know what your hunch was? A Hezbollah troll?

Wow!

If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and quacks like a duck, chances are, it's a duck.
Less hizbullah troll and more Russian/iran affiliated bot nonsense

Generic old user name never posted previous is a favorite trick of spammers and scammers on forums since forever

[Newhere]

If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and quacks like a duck, chances are, it's a duck.
Less hizbullah troll and more Russian/iran affiliated bot nonsense

Generic old user name never posted previous is a favorite trick of spammers and scammers on forums since forever

Wow. Not sure how to get away from that accusation. How do I prove I am not a spy.

Alright let's try this. So I am currently learning chagigah - 1st perek.

You are welcome to farher me with some basic questions. (I am not learning b'iyun).

Maybe I should also list all the words I know in Yeshivish shprach...

[Newhere]

Wow. Not sure how to get away from that accusation. How do I prove I am not a spy.

Alright let's try this. So I am currently learning chagigah - 1st perek.

You are welcome to farher me with some basic questions. (I am not learning b'iyun).

Maybe I should also list all the words I know in Yeshivish shprach...

But I am going out right now, so answers to the farher questions will only be posted later....

[LongTimeLurker]

I challenge you to find me an example of a case where a regular army has beaten a well organized guerilla force. That isn't how it works. Eventually the regular army caves in and makes a deal with the guerillas. At least in all cases I am familiar with.

The  Malayan Emergency is usually the example given/taught for successful counter insurgency.


See : https://www.amazon.com/Learning-Eat-Soup-Knife-Counterinsurgency/dp/0226567702

[yfr bachur]

I strongly caution against using the default sefaria translation. The words you are screenshotting are from "The Contemporary Torah: A Gender-Sensitive Adaptation of the JPS Translation" https://jps.org/books/contemporary-torah/.

Whether in general Sefaria is kosher, considering it's founded and run by people who don't necessarily believe in the holiness of the texts and are in the business of commissioning and promulgating "contemporary" versions of Torah such as the book above, is another good question.

Netfree blocks it, and for good reason.

[Just A Jew]

@Newhere To your point about guerrilla armies coming out on top, can you point to any example where any of them were dealt with like Hamas was dealt with in Gaza or like Hezbollah has been hit in Lebabnon?