Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2024 Election? (October Post-VP Debate Predictions) (Read 15783 times)

Chester7 · « **Reply #40 on:** October 22, 2024, 12:00:53 PM »

Quote from: Dan on October 22, 2024, 10:40:30 AM

This market seems ripe for a big @CountValentine bet.

Any ideas why they're so off?

justaregularguy · « **Reply #41 on:** October 22, 2024, 07:26:34 PM »

Quote from: Chester7 on October 22, 2024, 12:00:53 PM

Any ideas why they're so off?

wasn’t there 4 accounts buying millions betting Trump win to sort of distort the market? Heard that somewhere idk

mevinyavin · « **Reply #42 on:** October 27, 2024, 01:23:37 AM »

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398128
This is hilarious. They blocked the Harris nomination because Biden SUPPORTS the war against Hamas?

LA Times owner killed Harris endorsement over Gaza war, daughter says
Nika Soon-Shiong, daughter of billionaire owner of the Los Angeles Times, Patrick Soon-Shiong, says she was involved in decision not to endorse the Democratic candidate due to the war against Hamas, which she called a "genocide."

yosefsv · « **Reply #43 on:** October 27, 2024, 11:59:49 AM »

Alexsei · « **Reply #44 on:** October 27, 2024, 06:05:54 PM »

Alexsei · « **Reply #45 on:** October 27, 2024, 11:44:09 PM »

https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1850723361510310310

justaregularguy · « **Reply #46 on:** October 27, 2024, 11:47:45 PM »

Quote from: Alexsei on October 27, 2024, 11:44:09 PM

https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1850723361510310310

New Hampshire? That’s usually blue isn’t it?

yuneeq · « **Reply #47 on:** October 28, 2024, 01:34:53 AM »

Quote from: Alexsei on October 27, 2024, 06:05:54 PM

Quote from: yosefsv on October 27, 2024, 11:59:49 AM

Terrible design exhibits A and B

Alexsei · « **Reply #48 on:** October 28, 2024, 11:21:42 AM »

ExGingi · « **Reply #49 on:** October 28, 2024, 11:30:36 AM »

Quote from: justaregularguy on October 22, 2024, 07:26:34 PM

wasn’t there 4 accounts buying millions betting Trump win to sort of distort the market? Heard that somewhere idk

IINM they said it was a French national who is a professional bettor that placed those.

You've got to love the desperation they put in the article's last sentence.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/25/prediction-market-polymarket-kalshi-trump-harris

Chester7 · « **Reply #50 on:** October 29, 2024, 06:55:56 PM »

A full 2/3!!

Alexsei · « **Reply #51 on:** October 29, 2024, 11:27:37 PM »

https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1851343875245318481

https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1851371618645246267

https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1851418556501495843

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1851375475228016981

Alexsei · « **Reply #52 on:** October 30, 2024, 12:24:29 PM »

https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1851621958317662558

dovy2 · « **Reply #53 on:** October 30, 2024, 03:30:03 PM »

With the latest polls favoring Harris in WI and MI, and Trump in NC and GA, the race now boils down to PA alone.

Are those Amish going to decide our President?

aygart · « **Reply #54 on:** October 30, 2024, 04:59:29 PM »

Quote from: dovy2 on October 30, 2024, 03:30:03 PM

With the latest polls favoring Harris in WI and MI, and Trump in NC and GA, the race now boils down to PA alone.

Are those Amish going to decide our President?

4 of those states plus NV the candidates are within 1% of each other.

Dan · « **Reply #55 on:** October 30, 2024, 09:16:30 PM »

Looking more and more that this whole thing is going to come down to PA.

Shocking she didn't pick Shapiro. This would be a done deal if she did.

Alexsei · « **Reply #56 on:** October 30, 2024, 09:19:00 PM »

Quote from: Dan on October 30, 2024, 09:16:30 PM

Looking more and more that this whole thing is going to come down to PA.

Shocking she didn't pick Shapiro. This would be a done deal if she did.

Great chance EC going to be decided by the Amish and House Control by (Orthodox) Jews

yelped · « **Reply #57 on:** October 30, 2024, 09:19:49 PM »

Quote from: Dan on October 30, 2024, 09:16:30 PM

Looking more and more that this whole thing is going to come down to PA.

Shocking she didn't pick Shapiro. This would be a done deal if she did.

Good for everyone else. Shocking that anyone wants her. Literally has not a single thing to offer, besides not being Trump.

yuneeq · « **Reply #58 on:** October 31, 2024, 12:47:55 AM »

Quote from: Alexsei on October 30, 2024, 12:24:29 PM

https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1851621958317662558

There’s always 100 precedents that have predicted every election in hindsight, and these precedents are always broken.

aygart · « **Reply #59 on:** October 31, 2024, 11:25:23 AM »

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1851691099712004487