Prediction markets discussion

[ExGingi]

IINM this is the first election cycle where so much attention is given to prediction markets (which have proliferated), stressing how they are more likely to be reliable than polls.

While many markets are offshore and illegal in (some/many/all?) US states. Kalshi is US based and approved, and IBKR is offering CFTC approved contracts.

I wanted to experiment with IBKR contracts, when I tried placing a trade, I got a pop-up that said I  exceed the maximum trade size of 5 contracts, but I was able to place a trade for 25 contracts.

Anyone else trading the prediction markets? What do you use? Any strategies?

Will the election results prove to become a major nail in the coffin of traditional polls and a major shift to betting markets?

[Chester7]

IINM this is the first election cycle where so much attention is given to prediction markets (which have proliferated), stressing how they are more likely to be reliable than polls.

While many markets are offshore and illegal in (some/many/all?) US states. Kalshi is US based and approved, and IBKR is offering CFTC approved contracts.

I wanted to experiment with IBKR contracts, when I tried placing a trade, I got a pop-up that said I  exceed the maximum trade size of 5 contracts, but I was able to place a trade for 25 contracts.

Anyone else trading the prediction markets? What do you use? Any strategies?

Will the election results prove to become a major nail in the coffin of traditional polls and a major shift to betting markets?

Any reason to believe these will not be manipulated as has been mentioned in other threads ( both when KH and DT was up)?

[ExGingi]

Any reason to believe these will not be manipulated as has been mentioned in other threads ( both when KH and DT was up)?

Did you read the Axios article? Doesn't the fact that manipulation claims exist on both sides show something?

A true and free market can't be easily manipulated. We'll find out in a little over a week.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/25/prediction-market-polymarket-kalshi-trump-harris

[Chester7]

Did you read the Axios article? Doesn't the fact that manipulation claims exist on both sides show something?

A true and free market can't be easily manipulated. We'll find out in a little over a week.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/25/prediction-market-polymarket-kalshi-trump-harris

Now I did. Seems like a lot of words that say maybe. I would think a reliable pollster with a track record would do better.

Something that can be manipulated by both sides does not make it accurate.

[aygart]

A true and free market can't be easily manipulated.

-1 it needs to be liquid and well traded.