2nd Israel - Hamas Hostage Deal Jan 2025

[AsherO]

Is this really the deal?? This is what Trump thinks is a good deal?

The insane thing is it's not actually known how many bodies. The sad reality is that some of those MIA since 10/7 and presumed taken hostage might never return.

[Just A Jew]

Is this really the deal?? This is what Trump thinks is a good deal?

Good deal for who? Any deal here is a good deal for Trump. He wants this "distraction" gone by 1/20 so he can focus on his agenda. I'm more curious as to what was said to get it done.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/arab-official-trump-envoy-swayed-netanyahu-more-in-one-meeting-than-biden-did-all-year/

A “tense” weekend meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and incoming Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff led to a breakthrough in the hostage negotiations, with the top aide to US President-elect Donald Trump doing more to sway the premier in a single sit-down than outgoing President Joe Biden did all year, two Arab officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday.

[AsherO]

Many of terrorists were just captured and haven't received a trial and Israel may not have evidence against them.
(They arrested many gazans during the war to be able to use as puns for this deal)
P.S. My issue is that it seams that they are still letting Hamas rule

Israel isn't releasing any terrorists arrested during the war.
For better or worse, fact is many arrested Gazans were released, some of them with Hamas connections (the head of the Shifa hospital is a notable example)
It's true, if thngs go Hamas' way, they might manage to have the war ending with them retaining power.

[AsherO]

Good deal for who? Any deal here is a good deal for Trump. He wants this "distraction" gone by 1/20 so he can focus on his agenda. I'm more curious as to what was said to get it done.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/arab-official-trump-envoy-swayed-netanyahu-more-in-one-meeting-than-biden-did-all-year/

What exactly could this possibly distract from?

[Just A Jew]

What exactly could this possibly distract from?

Abraham Accords, taking over Greenland, invading Venezuela,  1 million other random things Trump said he wants regarding foreign policy and the America First agenda.

ME conflict is a global distraction. Trump likes things that make financial sense. Right now, not only does the Israel/Hamas war not make financial sense, it impedes on things he thinks do make sense.

[Chester7]

When he's not on the paying side...

UNLESS... (as some have speculated) he just wants to show a win before inauguration day, will release all restrictions on Israel post-inauguration, and allow the Israelis to go full force after that.

Good deal for who? Any deal here is a good deal for Trump. He wants this "distraction" gone by 1/20 so he can focus on his agenda. I'm more curious as to what was said to get it done.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/arab-official-trump-envoy-swayed-netanyahu-more-in-one-meeting-than-biden-did-all-year/

My point is that Trump is saying he's very tough and people will listen to him. You don't show that by being tough on your friends! Isn't that what we had until now?

[Just A Jew]

My point is that Trump is saying he's very tough and people will listen to him. You don't show that by being tough on your friends! Isn't that what we had until now?

It's obviously not the same as what we had until now, because there was no deal until now, and Trump made that happen, for better or for worse. The question is what did he say that Biden didn't that made this deal happen now and not in May 2024?

[Chester7]

It's obviously not the same as what we had until now, because there was no deal until now, and Trump made that happen, for better or for worse. The question is what did he say that Biden didn't that made this deal happen now and not in May 2024?

What I mean is that Biden and Co pressed Israel more than Hamas. Send the same happened, and they're just more scared of Trump.

[Just A Jew]

What I mean is that Biden and Co pressed Israel more than Hamas. Send the same happened, and they're just more scared of Trump.

There are many factors which can motivate people to get a deal done. I'm not so sure fear played a role here. It may have come down to other promises made behind closed doors. For example, the language Trump used in his announcement implies Hamas will not be allowed to rule. That's not in the deal, but what was promised on the side to make Israel feel like they can trust it will happen?

[Chester7]

There are many factors which can motivate people to get a deal done. I'm not so sure fear played a role here. It may have come down to other promises made behind closed doors. For example, the language Trump used in his announcement implies Hamas will not be allowed to rule. That's not in the deal, but what was promised on the side to make Israel feel like they can trust it will happen?

You are explaining why Israel agreed. I am saying Trump's threats did nothing, or at least very little. He got Israel to agree to Hamas, not the other way.

[Just A Jew]

You are explaining why Israel agreed. I am saying Trump's threats did nothing, or at least very little. He got Israel to agree to Hamas, not the other way.

No, I'm saying that deals are almost never what they are on the paper you see. It's very often about side agreements and promises made behind the scenes. Does this deal look the same as the May 24 deal on paper? Sure. But what Biden said vs what Trump said that didn't make it on to the paper is the difference. Biden seemed to waver on who rules Gaza on the day after. He also wasn't pro Israel keeping the Philadelphi corridor. Those are just snippets various media picked up on. There were likely hundreds of other details or agreements with third party countries which didn't make public news.

To be clear, I don't think any deal is a good deal. I also think Trump always does what's best for Trump. I also know that my opinion matters not one iota. I'm not justifying this deal. I'm just saying that in analyzing the deal, there's always more to these things than what meets the eye.

[Shmueli]

Does anyone know for certain that the deal is the same as it has always been?

To me it looks like Hamas gave in on Bibi's final insistence - The Philadelphia corridor (at least in the 1st phase).
That would be a win for Israel over Biden's deal, no?

[Shmueli]

Also, suggesting that this wasn't totally to Trump's credit (or discredit, depending on if u like this deal or not) is silly.

The hostages have been in Gaza for 466 days under biden with no deal.
5 days before inauguration there is a deal (which Trump had said there better be by the 20th).
 How else do u explain that?

[Chester7]

Also, suggesting that this wasn't totally to Trump's credit (or discredit, depending on if u like this deal or not) is silly.

The hostages have been in Gaza for 466 days under biden with no deal.
5 days before inauguration there is a deal (which Trump had said there better be by the 20th).
 How else do u explain that?

He got Israel to agree to Hamas, not the other way.

[EliJelly]

Also, suggesting that this wasn't totally to Trump's credit (or discredit, depending on if u like this deal or not) is silly.

The hostages have been in Gaza for 466 days under biden with no deal.
5 days before inauguration there is a deal (which Trump had said there better be by the 20th).
 How else do u explain that?

Is anyone discounting that? But it seems that despite Trump's threats directed at Hamas, it was his stronger leverage over Israel than what Biden has what resulted this deal in being executed. Remains to see how his leverage was utilized, whether by promising goodies thereafter or by hinting at them to better remain on his good side.

[ExGingi]

This is a financial podcast, and lots of technical terms in the first part. Cem Karsan is a brilliant trader.

Pay attention to what he says starting at 38:51 (excellent transcript, so you don't have to listen, or you can listen if that's what you prefer).

https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/podcast/yield-storm-ahead-preparing-for-a-new-era-ft-cem-karsan/#transcript

[ExGingi]

You can't fight Hamas in Gaza with just tanks and planes either. For so so many reasons. Anoyone who thinks so simply doesn't understand warfare, let alone urban warfare with lots of tunnels.

Which is where a lot of the criticism over the woke IDF command goes.

Why put IDF soldiers in harms way. Total blockade (as in no electricity, fuel, water, food, and a stern warning to the Egyptians to enforce it from their end, along with aerial bombing to raze anything along the perimeter border), and bombing any place where rockets are fired from.

[EliJelly]

Which is where a lot of the criticism over the woke IDF command goes.

Why put IDF soldiers in harms way. Total blockade (as in no electricity, fuel, water, food, and a stern warning to the Egyptians to enforce it from their end, along with aerial bombing to raze anything along the perimeter border), and bombing any place where rockets are fired from.

Starve them to death?

[ExGingi]

https://x.com/glcarlstrom/status/1879607544395747455

[ExGingi]

https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1879628795898102146