2nd Israel - Hamas Hostage Deal Jan 2025

[Shmueli]

Is anyone discounting that? But it seems that despite Trump's threats directed at Hamas, it was his stronger leverage over Israel than what Biden has what resulted this deal in being executed. Remains to see how his leverage was utilized, whether by promising goodies thereafter or by hinting at them to better remain on his good side.

I think this is a win overall for Israel when u consider the following.
It's not perfect, but that is the way of the world.

• Sooner or later they have to stop fighting. They can't continue like this (militarily, socially, economically, etc.) for years, especially as the pace slows.
• For better or for worse, Israel needs Trump, not the other way around. Giving Trump a big win like this, BEFORE he even takes office, will be a massive asset for Israel for the next 4/8 years
• Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Sryia and Iran are all weakened. Nasrallah, Sinwar, Deif, Assad, Haniyeh, etc., etc. are all gone. That's a big win.
• At a certain point they need to make a deal regardless. Dragging it out this long should be their win. We all new at a certain point the party is gonna be over
• There was never going to be a "total victory". Everyone knows this. Kill a terrorist and they'll make 5 more to replace him. Detterence is the name of the game in this region, and Israel has reestablished it like never before (especially with Trump coming in...)

[aygart]

You are explaining why Israel agreed. I am saying Trump's threats did nothing, or at least very little. He got Israel to agree to Hamas, not the other way.

What did they agree to here that they hadn't already agreed to in previous proposals?

[EliJelly]

I think this is a win overall for Israel when u consider the following.
It's not perfect, but that is the way of the world.

• Sooner or later they have to stop fighting. They can't continue like this (militarily, socially, economically, etc.) for years, especially as the pace slows.
• For better or for worse, Israel needs Trump, not the other way around. Giving Trump a big win like this, BEFORE he even takes office, will be a massive asset for Israel for the next 4/8 years
• Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Sryia and Iran are all weakened. Nasrallah, Sinwar, Deif, Assad, Haniyeh, etc., etc. are all gone. That's a big win.
• At a certain point they need to make a deal regardless. Dragging it out this long should be their win. We all new at a certain point the party is gonna be over
• There was never going to be a "total victory". Everyone knows this. Kill a terrorist and they'll make 5 more to replace him. Detterence is the name of the game in this region, and Israel has reestablished it like never before (especially with Trump coming in...)

+1
I'm not certain whether this deal is ultimately a net gain or not, it does seem very painful to finalize this with having terrorists released. But those who vehemently oppose it must ask themselves what would have been the the alternative plan moving forward. What was accomplished in the past 3 months since Sinwar's death that leads us to say that this path is leading to a victory. They had a victory over Hezbollah but the Gaza war seemed never ending. Israel never intended to follow the brilliant should have suggestions of total blockade or carpet bombing and "having the job done". So it remained to deal with the reality of the trajectory where this war is going.

The bigger focus should have been on working with the west and the Arab nations to establish an alternative ruling authority for Gaza, but Israel didn't allow those talks to take place, as they were too busy with their proclaiming to utterly defeat Hamas first, now they are left with this part unsettled and Hamas can possibly remain in power. The hostage situation also added immense pressure to the whole saga.

I wonder if anyone here can lay out an alternative plan if a deal wouldn't happen, with the current reality of how the war is going, without resorting to could haves and should haves of a year ago.

[AsherO]

Abraham Accords, taking over Greenland, invading Venezuela,  1 million other random things Trump said he wants regarding foreign policy and the America First agenda.

This would “complement” the AA from Trump’s perspective, not that he needs a distraction for AA. Greenland or Venezuela would be eclipsed by this, it would be a tiny blip next to those.

[ExGingi]

https://x.com/paulrubens/status/1879661682626281870

[zalman2bis]

I think this is a win overall for Israel when u consider the following.
It's not perfect, but that is the way of the world.

• Sooner or later they have to stop fighting. They can't continue like this (militarily, socially, economically, etc.) for years, especially as the pace slows.
• For better or for worse, Israel needs Trump, not the other way around. Giving Trump a big win like this, BEFORE he even takes office, will be a massive asset for Israel for the next 4/8 years
• Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Sryia and Iran are all weakened. Nasrallah, Sinwar, Deif, Assad, Haniyeh, etc., etc. are all gone. That's a big win.
• At a certain point they need to make a deal regardless. Dragging it out this long should be their win. We all new at a certain point the party is gonna be over
• There was never going to be a "total victory". Everyone knows this. Kill a terrorist and they'll make 5 more to replace him. Detterence is the name of the game in this region, and Israel has reestablished it like never before (especially with Trump coming in...)

1) I agree they can't continue like this. But it's wrong to agree that Israel will abide to a ceasefire. It needs to be at Israel's discretion. Agreeing to a ceasefire means you didn't win.
2) Every time Israel tries to appease to the world, they don't come out on top. Look back at all other US brokered deals etc.
3) Hamas is not gone. And that's a major loss. And that's who the ceasefire is between. Not all the other ones.
4) Why is a deal necessary?! They definitely need a game plan, but not a deal with the enemy Cha"v!
5) It's true that it's very hard to win in today's guerilla warfare. But it's not impossible, if they don't care about what the world says. Unfortunately, they do, and time and time again, that's what leads to all these disasters.

What do you think is going to happen now al pi tevah, if they cha"v continue this mehalech?

Rockets will start flying again, and they'll regroup and plan another cha"v, and raise another generation of terrorists.
Winning means your enemy admits defeat, and is subjugated to the victor.

I agree that's not easy, but definitely attainable. And definitely no need to move out of already captured areas, which all agree are necessary for security.

All these deals are political pressure, and not based on the best option for Israel's security, long term. And even short term can be very short, Hashem Yishmor.

[ExGingi]

Interesting take, acknowledging the realities and putting it in perspective.

[Yehuda57]

[Shmueli]

1) I agree they can't continue like this. But it's wrong to agree that Israel will abide to a ceasefire. It needs to be at Israel's discretion. Agreeing to a ceasefire means you didn't win.
2) Every time Israel tries to appease to the world, they don't come out on top. Look back at all other US brokered deals etc.
3) Hamas is not gone. And that's a major loss. And that's who the ceasefire is between. Not all the other ones.
4) Why is a deal necessary?! They definitely need a game plan, but not a deal with the enemy Cha"v!
5) It's true that it's very hard to win in today's guerilla warfare. But it's not impossible, if they don't care about what the world says. Unfortunately, they do, and time and time again, that's what leads to all these disasters.

What do you think is going to happen now al pi tevah, if they cha"v continue this mehalech?

Rockets will start flying again, and they'll regroup and plan another cha"v, and raise another generation of terrorists.
Winning means your enemy admits defeat, and is subjugated to the victor.

I agree that's not easy, but definitely attainable. And definitely no need to move out of already captured areas, which all agree are necessary for security.

All these deals are political pressure, and not based on the best option for Israel's security, long term. And even short term can be very short, Hashem Yishmor.

Hamas was never going to be completely wiped out. That was never realistic even if Bibi insisted it was.

The reality is that Israel IS dependent on the US, Germany and others. They can't just nuke the place and expect the flow of weapons to continue for the next war ( lo aleinu).

You need to pick a side: Either Hamas has been largely decimated, or they haven't.

-If they haven't, then we've wasted 1. The support of the free world 2. The lives of countless IDF soldiers 3. The lives of the hostages 4. Billions of $$ all for almost nothing.

And why would you continue doing that for another year if it's clearly not hurting Hamas?

-If they have been decimated (which I hope they are), then for the reasons I said above, this is a huge win for Israel.

Reality and logic needs to come 1st, even though I totally get how this deal is far from ideal.

I think Israel can say they got 75% of what they wanted going into this. That's pretty good.

It could be I'm wrong. Maybe it's not as black and white as I make it out to be. Time will tell

[Yehuda57]

The reality is that Israel IS dependent on the US, Germany and others. They can't just nuke the place and expect the flow of weapons to continue for the next war ( lo aleinu).

The only reason not to nuke Gaza is America will be sad?

[JuryDuty]

Would they really release part of the bibas family but not the father? Just horrible

[ExGingi]

Would they really release part of the bibas family but not the father? Just horrible

That's the only horrible thing they are capable of?

[ExGingi]

1942 wasn't an election year (though one would need to find the date of the actual quote - sounds like it's from הקריאה והקדושה). So this must have been put there for טו טבת ה׳תשפ"ה. Don't put your trust in Trump or Netanyahu. They are just pawns in the real "game".

[Mordyk]

Would they really release part of the bibas family but not the father? Just horrible

I hope they are alive. But I don't see why hamas would bother dealing with such little kids...  horrible

[AsherO]

Would they really release part of the bibas family but not the father? Just horrible

I hope they are alive. But I don't see why hamas would bother dealing with such little kids...  horrible

What you and anyone rational/moral calls horrible is a weapon for Hamas. Hamas is a terror organization, and terror is a synonym of horror (the root of horrible).

[gozalim]

Hamas was never going to be completely wiped out. That was never realistic even if Bibi insisted it was.

The reality is that Israel IS dependent on the US, Germany and others. They can't just nuke the place and expect the flow of weapons to continue for the next war ( lo aleinu).

You need to pick a side: Either Hamas has been largely decimated, or they haven't.

-If they haven't, then we've wasted 1. The support of the free world 2. The lives of countless IDF soldiers 3. The lives of the hostages 4. Billions of $$ all for almost nothing.

And why would you continue doing that for another year if it's clearly not hurting Hamas?

-If they have been decimated (which I hope they are), then for the reasons I said above, this is a huge win for Israel.

Reality and logic needs to come 1st, even though I totally get how this deal is far from ideal.

I think Israel can say they got 75% of what they wanted going into this. That's pretty good.

It could be I'm wrong. Maybe it's not as black and white as I make it out to be. Time will tell

at whatever point they are sufficiently subdued, Israel needs to withdraw on their own terms. Leaving on Hamas terms and US pressure is the reinforcement to terror that will get people killed

[Just A Jew]

at whatever point they are sufficiently subdued,

This is the point no one will ever agree on.

[Yehuda57]

This is the point no one will ever agree on.

Only for Israel. Historically the world has been very well aware of when another side had lost the war.

[davidd75]

This whole hostage negotiations is patently mind-boggling
The whole world should put maximum pressure on Hamas to release all hostages (especially civilians) as kidnapping and holding civilians should never be allowed and crosses all red lines.  No civilian and even soldiers should be subjected to such horror and being ripped away from their family and society.  It is insane.

As we know Hamas will not capitulate so therefore what the US and other world leaders should do is threaten and carry out to destroy parts of Iran or Qatar(military targets) or any other countries that has leverage over Hamas if all hostages are not released by certain date.

These countries hosted, facilitated and financed this insane situation we are in now.  Let them deal with Hamas

[Just A Jew]

Only for Israel. Historically the world has been very well aware of when another side had lost the war.

I disagree. I think we've had a very hard time determining that point in the vast majority of conflicts post WWII, especially when it involved terrorist militias. Al Qaeda, Taliban, even ISIS to some degree... when the victors aren't taking over the land they conquer, we don't have a great track record over the last 70 years, and a lot of that has to do with disagreements over when the other side is "sufficiently subdued."