Yoav Gallant On Dan Senor's podcast: Bibi's October 11th Blunder

[Yehuda57]

Dan Senor's podcast, part 1 with Yoav Gallant:
https://youtu.be/aPEPztvsJGQ (or wherever you get your podcasts)


@ExGingi We've discussed this before upthread, but this is a very compelling argument from Yoav Gallant about attacking Hezbollah right away after Oct 7. (timestamped in the Youtube description at 36:50)

Admittedly, I don't consume Israeli news at all, even in English, beyond this podcast, this forum, and whatever is shared by a few close friends/relatives. I'm sure there is a counter argument from the Bibi side, but using hindsight it appears the Gallant plan would have been hugely successful. The effects are so incredibly far reaching beyond just the military success - shorter war = shortened reservist call up times = uplifted moral = economy gets rebuilt faster and on and on. We had almost a hundred thousand Israelis from the north living in hotels in Eilat for more than a year - kids not in school, parents losing jobs, etc etc. (I'm only mentioning things Gallant didn't mention himself)

This seems to be an absolutely massive missed opportunity by Bibi, compounding his Oct 7 failure, the worst by a prime minister since Golda Meir in '73, or maybe ever.

[PlatinumGuy]

I'm sure there is a counter argument from the Bibi side

Bibbi said in a public interview that 90% of the beepers weren't in use at that point.

Israel is winning this war more than anybody dreamt possible. Population transfer was unspeakable and is the only real long term solution and total victory. To attack Bibbi that it could be even better is absurd. He did better than anybody dreamt possible.

[Yehuda57]

Bibbi said in a public interview that 90% of the beepers weren't in use at that point.

Israel is winning this war more than anybody dreamt possible. Population transfer was unspeakable and is the only real long term solution and total victory. To attack Bibbi that it could be even better is absurd. He did better than anybody dreamt possible.

Did you even listen? We know now that the beepers were a secondary operation, the primary one was the radios, of which there were 15000 and with more powerful explosives.

I'm not going to rehash his arguments, he makes them quite well himself. What is absurd is to say you can't criticize Bibi because he did better than you expected, even when presented with an operation that would have likely achieved the same results or better in a fraction of the time and without displacing tens of thousands of Israeli citizens for months on end

[PlatinumGuy]

Did you even listen? We know now that the beepers were a secondary operation, the primary one was the radios, of which there were 15000 and with more powerful explosives.

I'm not going to rehash his arguments, he makes them quite well himself. What is absurd is to say you can't criticize Bibi because he did better than you expected, even when presented with an operation that would have likely achieved the same results or better in a fraction of the time and without displacing tens of thousands of Israeli citizens for months on end

The radios may have not been in use either.

The beepers may have impacted more senior commanders who wouldn't be dealing with tactical radios.

Most importantly, ending the war in Lebanon earlier could've forced a ceasefire in Gaza, whereas Bibbi dragged it out until Trump came into power and put population transfer on the table.

If we get rid of the Palestinans in Gaza, we can annex the West Bank, the Arabs can give up on their dream of getting the country back and the conflict can end.

The price of tens of thousands of Israelis living in hotels for a few months would be laughable compared to the potential prosperity, which would save millions of Israelis from military service and harm, peace for the entire country for generations to come with all of the economic growth it will bring.

Ultimately we know only a small amount of the considerations and have to choose between relying on Netanyahu and relying on somebody else. Nobody in their right mind thinks Gallant is more dependable.

[Yehuda57]

Nobody in their right mind thinks Gallant is more dependable.

Why bother saying anything else at all if all it comes down to is that anyone who takes a different position to you can't be in their right mind?

Peace out

[yfr bachur]

@ExGingi We've discussed this before upthread, but this is a very compelling argument from Yoav Gallant about attacking Hezbollah right away after Oct 7. (timestamped in the Youtube description at 36:50)

...

This seems to be an absolutely massive missed opportunity by Bibi, compounding his Oct 7 failure, the worst by a prime minister since Golda Meir in '73, or maybe ever.

Didn't listen to the podcast, (dont have the time right now)

This ignores all known facts about Israeli defense planning, that no matter how much they declare that they can fight on multiple fronts etc... they really cannot fight two full blown fronts at the same time (thanks to certain previous PM/DM/COSs pushing for a smaller "smarter" army.

Anyway, take anything that Gallant says at this point with a heaping spoon of salt. IINM He's more or less done in the Likud, and he needs to prove his anti bibi bonefides so he can find himself a nice landing spot in another party...

[zh cohen]

Why bother saying anything else at all if all it comes down to is that anyone who takes a different position to you can't be in their right mind?

I think you are taking what he said a bit further than what he actually said.

You are arguing that based on the information we have, Gallant's arguments make sense. PG is saying that we do not have enough information to decide the case on its merits, and our only option is to choose who to trust.

Based on that, he said that choosing to trust Gallant (not Gallant's arguments) over Bibi is wrong.

[Yehuda57]

Didn't listen to the podcast, (dont have the time right now)

This ignores all known facts about Israeli defense planning, that no matter how much they declare that they can fight on multiple fronts etc... they really cannot fight two full blown fronts at the same time (thanks to certain previous PM/DM/COSs pushing for a smaller "smarter" army.

That's kinda the point! Israel *was* fighting a multi front war, as Hezbollah attacked on Oct 8 and Israel had a massive presence up north while waging a full fledged war in the south. That is one of the primary points of the Gallant plan, which has been known since day 1. Attack the stronger enemy first, Hezbollah, and then afterwards you tackle the weaker enemy, Hamas. This is a basic principle of war, in his opinion. I would like to hear the Bibi side of the argument beyond. I don't buy that he was delaying to wait for Trump, which seems absurd to me for multiple obvious reasons, and the beeper operation was use it or lose it, and a radio operation earlier would have had just as much chance of success once a war had been started.

[Yehuda57]

I think you are taking what he said a bit further than what he actually said.

You are arguing that based on the information we have, Gallant's arguments make sense. PG is saying that we do not have enough information to decide the case on its merits, and our only option is to choose who to trust.

Based on that, he said that choosing to trust Gallant (not Gallant's arguments) over Bibi is wrong.

No, based on that, anyone who chooses over Bibi is not in their right mind.

The same Bibi who's policies led to Oct 7. The same Bibi who's every move has been quite clearly politically motivated. E.G. What is the difference between this hostage deal and the one from a few months ago when the Philadelphia corridor was sacred ground that could not be compromised? Nothing. Except outside the deal he now has a few more seats in his coalition to withstand someone leaving in protest. And numerous other examples.

[Yehuda57]

I'm fully aware that I'm coming at this from a largely ignorant view of Israeli politics, that the Bibi-Gallant battle predates Oct 7, and that most here would align themselves with "team" Bibi over "team" Gallant. And most likely rightly so.

However, it seems to me, that in this instance, based on what we know now about how successful an Hezbollah operation would have been, how long the Hamas operation has been, the ability to withstand Iranian counter attacks, and more, Gallant's position seems to have been the correct one.

[yfr bachur]

No, based on that, anyone who chooses over Bibi is not in their right mind.

The same Bibi who's policies led to Oct 7. The same Bibi who's every move has been quite clearly politically motivated. E.G. What is the difference between this hostage deal and the one from a few months ago when the Philadelphia corridor was sacred ground that could not be compromised? Nothing. Except outside the deal he now has a few more seats in his coalition to withstand someone leaving in protest. And numerous other examples.

The golden rule in Israeli politics today is that all actors in the opposition are altruistic, selfless etc etc patriots, while all those in govt are playing politics.

If you believe that, then the lefty media has gotten you deeper than you realized.

Oh, and the difference between the deals? Neither you nor I know what was the difference of under the table messaging between what was coming from the Bidens a few months ago and and after the election plus what ever he was hearing from Trumps team.

[PlatinumGuy]

Why bother saying anything else at all if all it comes down to is that anyone who takes a different position to you can't be in their right mind?

It isn't merely my opinion, if you would put Netanyahu up against Gallant in a vote about the handling of the war, Netanyahu would get 99% of the vote. This is well known and accepted by everybody.

The same Bibi who's policies led to Oct 7

And you think Galants policies were better?!

E.G. What is the difference between this hostage deal and the one from a few months ago when the Philadelphia corridor was sacred ground that could not be compromised? Nothing

That's precisely the difference. Until this deal Hamas never agreed to a ceasefire without ending the war and complete surrender of Gaza including the Philadelphi corridor, which Gallant idiotically wanted to accept. Then the war would've been over months ago and Hamas would remain.

[Chuchum Ainer]

The golden rule in Israeli politics today is that all actors in the opposition are altruistic, selfless etc etc patriots, while all those in govt are playing politics.

If you believe that, then the lefty media has gotten you deeper than you realized.

Oh, and the difference between the deals? Neither you nor I know what was the difference of under the table messaging between what was coming from the Bidens a few months ago and and after the election plus what ever he was hearing from Trumps team.

And the rule for half the posters here, and the entire Israeli right, is that Bibi is the best ever and definitely better than anyone else available, and anyone who disagrees with his policies or thinks he may be at least partially responsible for at least some of Oct 7 is just looking to bring down the coalition (and drag charedim to the army)

Just cuz one side is blinded doesn't mean the other isn't.

[Mr. CC]

And the rule for half the posters here, and the entire Israeli right, is that Bibi is the best ever and definitely better than anyone else available, and anyone who disagrees with his policies or thinks he may be at least partially responsible for at least some of Oct 7 is just looking to bring down the coalition (and drag charedim to the army)

Just cuz one side is blinded doesn't mean the other isn't.

#rant
This conversation wasn't about making anyone a tzadik.
It was started to one extreme and @yfr bachur is just saying that Bibi isn't THAT terrible, and that there is another side to the story.

[aygart]

#rant
This conversation wasn't about making anyone a tzadik.
It was started to one extreme and @yfr bachur is just saying that Bibi isn't THAT terrible, and that there is another side to the story.

Wait you mean there is something between the absolute biggest tzaddik and most amazing option and the worst and lowest piece of dirt? Who would have known

[Yehuda57]

And the rule for half the posters here, and the entire Israeli right, is that Bibi is the best ever and definitely better than anyone else available, and anyone who disagrees with his policies or thinks he may be at least partially responsible for at least some of Oct 7 is just looking to bring down the coalition (and drag charedim to the army)

Just cuz one side is blinded doesn't mean the other isn't.

And I'm not even on team Gallant! I'm just saying, as I said months ago, that I think his strategy for the war seems to be the better one knowing what we do about Israel's capabilities against Hezbollah and Iran.

#rant
This conversation wasn't about making anyone a tzadik.
It was started to one extreme and @yfr bachur is just saying that Bibi isn't THAT terrible, and that there is another side to the story.

This conversation started with discussion over a strategy put forth by one person, and being argued against by discussing the people behind the strategy rather than the strategy itself. Comments like this calling noting Bibi's failures "extreme", when we are coming off patently extreme failures, is again not arguing the issues but picking political sides.

Call me crazy, but I think it is possible both Gallant and Bibi suck immensely.

[notyettaken]

Call me crazy, but I think it is possible both Gallant and Bibi suck immensely.

Question is if there are options that suck less. (I mean besides you, but for some reason you are not running for PM)

[Ver hut gazugt]

And I'm not even on team Gallant! I'm just saying, as I said months ago, that I think his strategy for the war seems to be the better one knowing what we do about Israel's capabilities against Hezbollah and Iran.

This conversation started with discussion over a strategy put forth by one person, and being argued against by discussing the people behind the strategy rather than the strategy itself. Comments like this calling noting Bibi's failures "extreme", when we are coming off patently extreme failures, is again not arguing the issues but picking political sides.

Call me crazy, but I think it is possible both Gallant and Bibi suck immensely.

at the time the war started. There was a lot of doubt if the army was trained well enough to go into Lebanon. An ex army guy ( who predicted that something like this could happen) who was consulted in the past to check the armies readiness said very strongly that they where not.

[Yehuda57]

at the time the war started. There was a lot of doubt if the army was trained well enough to go into Lebanon. An ex army guy ( who predicted that something like this could happen) who was consulted in the past to check the armies readiness said very strongly that they where not.

This is bonkers to still believe after Israel wiped out the Hezbollah front in a matter of days, and Gallant is plausibly stating they could done even more, even faster.

[yawn]

Didn't hear the pod, but 3 things come to mind.
One of the stated goals of the war was recovering the hostages. Sending the best troops into Lebanon wouldn't have been acceptable to the public. (Back then we were kind of expecting Entebbe style rescues.)
The justification for Lebanon was the months of bombing in the north. It might not have been smart to invade a sovereign country because of the actions of people with whom they share a sponsor.
Was the level of success in Lebanon, (especially the leadership strikes,) a result of months of surveillance and tracking? Does that happen in November?