Yoav Gallant On Dan Senor's podcast: Bibi's October 11th Blunder

[ExGingi]

Regarding the IDF being in disarray, it's not a secret that Hezbollah is the war Israel has been preparing for since 2002. That is where they had infiltrated the highest echelons of leadership, and we know now they had intel not even novels speak about.

Even with ground battalions getting mobilized, within a couple of days they would have wiped out the leadership, and even more missile stockpiles they did when they eventually did attack. Then when the Hezbollah soldiers donned their vests for the ground fight and to do those kidnappings - their radios explode with more deadly explosive than the beepers.

The Hamas war was always going to happen, and I think Gallant's assertion seems more likely, with greater success coming off the heel of such a showing in Hezbollah and with an undivided army.

That makes so much sense!

So why in the world would Bibi oppose it? Why wouldn't he want to get it done and gain global glory along with security on the northern border? Why?

[Yehuda57]

That makes so much sense!

So why in the world would Bibi oppose it? Why wouldn't he want to get it done and gain global glory along with security on the northern border? Why?

Because he overestimated the threat from Hezbollah
Because he thought Israelis would be upset he was "ignoring" the hostages.
Because he knew America wouldn't go along with it, and he didn't want to antagonize them in any way, especially knowing he'd need lots of help with arms for the war.

[AsherO]

Because he overestimated the threat from Hezbollah

The argument can be made that the threat from Hezbollah wasn’t overestimated and Israel got lucky/blessed that Hezbollah didn’t join the Oct. 7th attack, and also that they managed to chip away at Hezbollah’s missiles without absorbing too much damage.

How long did the evacuation of Israel’s north take? Was everybody out by Oct 11th when they would’ve attacked?

[Dan]

Dan Senor's podcast, part 1 with Yoav Gallant:

&feature=youtu.be

Incredibly compelling watch and testimony. I can't speak for Gallant's honesty, but his arguments seem very logical and hard to argue with.

I sure hope Bibi will respond in some way.

[yelped]

Because he overestimated the threat from Hezbollah
Because he thought Israelis would be upset he was "ignoring" the hostages.
Because he knew America wouldn't go along with it, and he didn't want to antagonize them in any way, especially knowing he'd need lots of help with arms for the war.

Not getting too involved here, both sides of this argument have very compelling arguments, but as EliJelly would say, at this point in Galus the last point is unfortunately very important.

[ExGingi]

Because he overestimated the threat from Hezbollah

Amazing. With all the experience and information he has and had, how could he be so far off?

(BTW, are you familiar with the Lebanese terrain? What do you know about the Hizbullah tunnels?)

Because he thought Israelis would be upset he was "ignoring" the hostages.

So you attribute total stupidty to him? Not knowing that such noise would come regardless of what he does, and actually making the wrong move just for fear of the heavily funded protests against him?

(BTW, are you aware of Assaf Shmulevitz, who was caught spying at an IDF command center in the south? Are you aware that major operations had to be called off due to uncertainty as to where the info he obtained might have reached?)

Because he knew America wouldn't go along with it, and he didn't want to antagonize them in any way, especially knowing he'd need lots of help with arms for the war.

During the first week the US would have probably gone along with anything. There were no "genocide" or "starvation" in Gaza back then. The world was backing Israel.

[ExGingi]

Incredibly compelling watch and testimony. I can't speak for Gallant's honesty, but his arguments seem very logical and hard to argue with.

I sure hope Bibi will respond in some way.

Yup. There's lots of money funding the anti-Bibi (Bolshevik/Globalist) agenda. They are PR experts operating against PR midgets. Bibi spoke of a 7 front war, but it is actually an 8 front war, with the internal war against the Democratic and Jewish image of the country being the first and the fiercest.

I don't think Bibi should respond with words at this time. It's all about actions (with the backing of the US administration).

I didn't watch the entire podcast/interview. Was Gallant challenged? Was he asked about the Assaf Shmulevitz fiasco and how it affected the war and decision making when it was uncovered?

[ExGingi]

[yfr bachur]

Just a few counterpoints
A. It's so nice that he's resigned so that he gets to go be out in front on a media tour showing his point of view... Bibi, last I checked, is still busy with the actual running of the country and war.
B. His analysis of where the state was securitywise on Oct 11 seems fanciful to me. The IDF was ready to open a second front? Seriously? They couldnt get food to tens or hundreds of thousands of soldiers who were called up, forget about basic combar gear and ammunition! He's WAAY too smug about how secure the country was. They had no idea which additional arab forces might join, were desperately turning each city, town, and outpost in and near Yehuda Veshomron and the borders into garrisons... etc...
C. He is using circular reasoning. You see the beeper attack was successful, so if we would have done it earlier and with the walkie-talkies it would have been even more successful.... But they did not know that at the time how successful it would be!
D. So just days after the greatest intelligence and army operations failures in the history of the country, Bibi is supposed to take the defense minister and mossad chief at their word that everything is just peaches and cream and the army is 100% prepared to enter Lebanon, and defend all the other suddenly discovered week points?
E. He totally discounts any geopolitical factors as irrelevant. Maybe as a military strategist that make sense (or a DDF poster), not so much for a seasoned international operator such as Bibi.
F. Once he was at it, why not throw in a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities at the same time? As he says, fight the stronger adversary first...

[ExGingi]

D. So just days after the greatest intelligence and army operations failures in the history of the country, Bibi is supposed to take the defense minister and mossad chief at their word that everything is just peaches and cream and the army is 100% prepared to enter Lebanon, and defend all the other suddenly discovered week points?

I didn't watch the entire podcast/interview. Was Gallant challenged? Was he asked about the Assaf Shmulevitz fiasco and how it affected the war and decision making when it was uncovered?

As I said, I didn't listen to the entire podcast but I really doubt he was challenged on this, or else it would be front and center.

So my question is to all those who think his arguments are correct (@Yehuda57, @Dan), do you still think so in light of the two quotes above?

[ExGingi]

Another angle:

https://x.com/yinonmagal/status/1891138319695618497

[AsherO]

As I said, I didn't listen to the entire podcast but I really doubt he was challenged on this, or else it would be front and center.

So my question is to all those who think his arguments are correct (@Yehuda57, @Dan), do you still think so in light of the two quotes above?

If not sure the Assaf Shmuelevitz fiasco is even known to people who aren’t following pretty closely and in Hebrew.

[Yehuda57]

If not sure the Assaf Shmuelevitz fiasco is even known to people who aren’t following pretty closely and in Hebrew.

It was brought up upthread and I did read some things about it (from @ExGingi, iirc)

[Yehuda57]

As I said, I didn't listen to the entire podcast but I really doubt he was challenged on this, or else it would be front and center.

So my question is to all those who think his arguments are correct (@Yehuda57, @Dan), do you still think so in light of the two quotes above?

1) I understand that viewpoint. It's legitimate. Hindsight is a different animal.

The major difference is that Lebanon is the war Israel had been preparing for for 2 decades, and Bibi knew they had the Intel on the rocket locations, leadership whereabouts, and the beeper/radio operation.

2) I don't think anyone can know what effect that has on anything in the south, let alone the north, as it is largely under wraps, iinm

[zh cohen]

2) I don't think anyone can know what effect that has on anything in the south, let alone the north, as it is largely under wraps, iinm

But it does show clearly what type of chaos was going on at the time. Under those conditions, it would have been very risky to do an operation which relied heavily on secrecy (like the beeper/walkie talkie one).

[yfr bachur]

1) I understand that viewpoint. It's legitimate. Hindsight is a different animal.

The major difference is that Lebanon is the war Israel had been preparing for for 2 decades, and Bibi knew they had the Intel on the rocket locations, leadership whereabouts, and the beeper/radio operation.

but they had NEVER game planned for anything like the current situation.
Not the amount of hostages, not the swift shift in the entire group of assumptions on how the army defenses are structured, not on poly front wars...

Say they do what he wants, and Egypt starts advancing from the south? The PA and other associated forces join in in YoSh? Syrian forces? Iran sends the missiles then? Jordanians? Maybe the Saudi Arabians too, once the massacre is on?

He gets to sit in a podcast studio and say stuff that some people are going to think sounds smart - bec you know now what exactly is going to happen with these things (together with their negius to see the terrible in Bibi...) . Bibi, in real time, did not have that luxury. Think about these things happening in real time, with the information available to them then... and he starts to look real stupid, real fast.

[Chuchum Ainer]

but they had NEVER game planned for anything like the current situation.
Not the amount of hostages, not the swift shift in the entire group of assumptions on how the army defenses are structured, not on poly front wars...

Say they do what he wants, and Egypt starts advancing from the south? The PA and other associated forces join in in YoSh? Syrian forces? Iran sends the missiles then? Jordanians? Maybe the Saudi Arabians too, once the massacre is on?

He gets to sit in a podcast studio and say stuff that some people are going to think sounds smart - bec you know now what exactly is going to happen with these things (together with their negius to see the terrible in Bibi...) . Bibi, in real time, did not have that luxury. Think about these things happening in real time, with the information available to them then... and he starts to look real stupid, real fast.

Israel had definitely planned for attacks on Lebanon long before Oct 7. Same for Iran. I also find it hard to believe the lightning destruction of Syrian infrastructure was truly all a post Oct 7 plan.

Even Hamas, the actual attack really wasn't very sophisticated, (which only underscores how ridiculous the failures were in intelligence, strategy, and security)

Bibi was clearly in the loop at that point, in the transcripts of the first call he got that morning he asks to activate all assassination plans on hamas, which clearly there weren't, but the plans for Nasrallah and Lebanon he did know about.

The defense that he couldn't trust the army to deliver is pretty strong, but even that seems to boil down to being too cautious and paralyzed by his and the IDF's failures.

The risks of attack by all those you mentioned was on oct 7-9. Not so much 11.
And if Israel would be under attack by all those you mention, it would only make sense to take out the first foe you can, all the faster. Do you not remember the massive morale boost after the three days of devastaing attacks on hezbolllah? The respect from the rest of the world? And that was even before they took out Nasrallah.

[ExGingi]

2) I don't think anyone can know what effect that has on anything in the south, let alone the north, as it is largely under wraps, iinm

Exactly!

Which is why certain operations aimed at rescuing the hostages in the early days were called off, due to the inability to ascertain in real time how deep the intelligence infiltration was, and who the information was passed to.

Just imagine, you have one of the best human intelligence operations in the world, and someone managed to infiltrate into the heart of your command center, record information, etc. And now you are faced with a decision whether to carry out an operation on a different front that is built upon your amazing intelligence information, where a huge vulnerability was just uncovered.

There have been much smaller operations that have been called off to protect intelligence sources. How wise is it to carry out an operation that is based on world class intelligence infiltration, when you just discovered a major hole in the heart of that operation, without conducting a proper assessment of the damage and risks?

It's OK to admit that this might have not been considered by Gallant (and by those singing his praise).

And for the record, Israeli intelligence had the Hamas plans code named Jericho Wall way in advance of Shmini Atzeres 5784.

[ExGingi]

It's beyond me why Israelis struggle so much with elections and cabinet picks, when they have such a great choice of expert competent candidates to man all the positions right here on DDF!

[Chuchum Ainer]

It's beyond me why Israelis struggle so much with elections and cabinet picks, when they have such a great choice of expert competent candidates to man all the positions right here on DDF!

Yup. Same question for the American elections and cabinet. And all the other things people on here opine about, with recognition that it's all armchair commentator talk.