Actualy, we don't.
There are uncountable variables that are different in the situation. Securitywise, geopoliticaly wise, etc....
Its changing the entire track of history.
Except many of the different variables point to even greater success in all those areas.
There is a continued denial of what we now *know* to be true:
Like what you wrote earlier:
That's exactly what Gallant is doing. He's Monday Morning Quarterbacking his own game where he fumbled the ball badly, and blaming the coach for not agreeing to run the crazy hook and ladder Statue of Liberty play that he drew up to beat the other team in the division which is going to be playing Monday Night football.
Like CA said, this was the plan they drew up well in advance of the game:
Claim: Ability Kill Hezbollah leadership - they had intel on the whereabouts of Nasrallah and all the top leadership, proven true because that's exactly what they did. The only variable is that on Oct 11 they knew of an even greater number of leaders that would at the meeting.
Claim: bomb missile stockpiles based on knowledge of whereabouts. Proven true because that's exactly what they did. The variable is that many were moved after Oct and they would have destroyed even more.
Beeper operation is a little murkier. We know:
1) The beepers were mostly
not in circulation yet (I don't know how many of the 4000 were operational).
2) 15000 radios were operational, and they were a bigger, deadlier explosive.
3) The beeper operation was done because it was use it or lose it.
Claim: If the operation would have been planned and not use or lose, it would have come after the first 2 parts of the plan, after decimating leadership and their ability to send missiles to "destroy Tel Aviv", the fighters don their vests as they go out to war, and you can wait/make certain moved to make sure they don their vests, and then boom - any active fighter - up to 15000, is dead.
Counter claim: We don't know that they will wear their vests?
Other counter claims:
Army was in disarray. This required air force missions which do not require the kind of ground mobilization that was in disarray. The radios didn't even need that. If anything, to me this gives the ground troops extra time to mobilize and get organized while the air force and intel is wrecking Hezbollah entirely without ground ops.
Bibi couldn't trust Gallant because he'd just screwed up in Gaza on Oct 7: True. But he also knew that this plan was in place for years and had a great likelihood of success as hindsight proves correct.
Shmulevitz: This was in the south, and this has not been raised as a counter claim by anyone in the Bibi camp at all (to my knowledge). In general, I don't know that any info about this scandal is reliable - from any side.
We aren't privy to all the info: Well, we never are, and that has never stopped us from opining on any other topic.
Which leave the main counter claim: Politics. This includes American reaction, Israeli opposition reaction, and not trusting a political foe in Gallant. Now, those are valid concerns. My main contention is those who prioritize military operations over political maneuvering, as I do, should side with Gallant *in this instance* even if he is usually a [insert desired adjective/expletive]. The fact that people who would are not ding so is based on politics and not the strategy.
