Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis

[aygart]

Why are they not happy? Is BMG still keeping their minhag of being meakev Shidduchim?

No they are keeping their minhag of teaching boys to plan a few months in advance.

[imayid2]

They released some data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mzob0m3hyGyhKaf0rzj_5ikaMhvM8hCn/view?usp=drivesdk

[aygart]

They released some data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mzob0m3hyGyhKaf0rzj_5ikaMhvM8hCn/view?usp=drivesdk

Can you explain what the data on pages 14 and 15 represents? How does the percentage go up for 30 year old boys? Is that what is actually happening or is that a calculation of some sort-what does it mean when they write adjusted for a 2 year age gap?

[Euclid]

Can you explain what the data on pages 14 and 15 represents? How does the percentage go up for 30 year old boys?

Divorce? But then how would the girls % stay static? Death?


ETA:

Preliminary sampling of data


A full age-by-age and city by city
analysis is in progress

So seems like some of this is what the model spit out

[imayid2]

At least 2 of the boxes on the right of page 7-9 are clickable and lead to that data

[Euclid]

what does it mean when they write adjusted for a 2 year age gap?

that they're not comparing the same age - that's the next page

[zh cohen]

How does the percentage go up for 30 year old boys?

I assume you mean to ask why the percentage of 31 year old boys is higher than the percentage of 30 year olds.

It says that this is the data from a survey, not a projection, and for whatever reason that class happens to have a higher percentage of boys that are unmarried.

[Euclid]

I assume you mean to ask why the percentage of 31 year old boys is higher than the percentage of 30 year olds.

It says that this is the data from a survey, not a projection, and for whatever reason that class happens to have a higher percentage of boys that are unmarried.

That would indicate a sample size issue

[aygart]

I assume you mean to ask why the percentage of 31 year old boys is higher than the percentage of 30 year olds.

It says that this is the data from a survey, not a projection, and for whatever reason that class happens to have a higher percentage of boys that are unmarried.

If your survey leads to numbers that are simply impossible then there is something wrong with your methodology. Unless it is including those previously married. Even then there are lots of questions about that since from what I've seen it is MUCH easier for men to get remarried than for women, although each man getting remarried means so did a woman so I'm not sure how that makes sense,

[zh cohen]

If your survey leads to numbers that are simply impossible then there is something wrong with your methodology.

I think you are misunderstanding what the survey says.

When they say 30 year olds, they mean people who were born in 1994 (not everyone 30 and under). 31 year olds are people born in 1993. Why is it impossible that the class born in 1993 has a higher percentage which is unmarried than the class born in 1994?

[Euclid]

I think you are misunderstanding what the survey says.

When they say 30 year olds, they mean people who were born in 1994 (not everyone 30 and under). 31 year olds are people born in 1993. Why is it impossible that the class born in 1993 has a higher percentage which is unmarried than the class born in 1994?

The sample size for each year should be big enough that the % numbers shouldnt be that much different


ETA: I would say that the age 30 mens data seems suspect

[aygart]

I think you are misunderstanding what the survey says.

When they say 30 year olds, they mean people who were born in 1994 (not everyone 30 and under). 31 year olds are people born in 1993. Why is it impossible that the class born in 1993 has a higher percentage which is unmarried than the class born in 1994?

I am asking what it means.

[YossieW]

I assume this is a pretty large mistake because how does this school have around 75-90 per grade except 1st grade has 4985, unless i am missing something

this is from Lakewood Elementary Day School enrollment data for the year 2024-2025

[Euclid]

I assume this is a pretty large mistake because how does this school have around 75-90 per grade except 1st grade has 4985, unless i am missing something

this is from Lakewood Elementary Day School enrollment data for the year 2024-2025

Where is this from? Link?

[dm123]

Where is this from? Link?

Page 7 of file imayid2 posted. Click on Lakewood BOE box and then click to see BOE Data it takes you to that google sheet YossieW referenced.

They released some data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mzob0m3hyGyhKaf0rzj_5ikaMhvM8hCn/view?usp=drivesdk

At least 2 of the boxes on the right of page 7-9 are clickable and lead to that data

[imayid2]

It is clearly a mistake. There is not nearly that amount in the entire school.

[cholent]

If your survey leads to numbers that are simply impossible then there is something wrong with your methodology. Unless it is including those previously married. Even then there are lots of questions about that since from what I've seen it is MUCH easier for men to get remarried than for women, although each man getting remarried means so did a woman so I'm not sure how that makes sense,

To your second point, many men getting married for the second time are marrying women who were not previously married.

[Euclid]

To your second point, many men getting married for the second time are marrying women who were not previously married.

Their first wives don't re-enter the pool, for this census - but the men do? (I'm assuming vast majority of second marriages amongst younger people are due to divorce)

[cholent]

Their first wives don't re-enter the pool, for this census - but the men do? (I'm assuming vast majority of second marriages amongst younger people are due to divorce)

I wasn't addressing the 30 yo discrepancy,  which was already speculated to be an error