Author Topic: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis  (Read 89394 times)

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #160 on: December 01, 2021, 10:18:26 AM »
Here are the numbers according to my calculation, based on the 30 years of data for Lakewood.

If all children born in Lakewood over the last 30 years did/will marry spouses the same age, there would be 2,407 boys without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 1 year younger than them, there would be about 452 boys without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 2 years younger than them, there would be about 1433 girls without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 3 years younger than them, there would be about 3290 girls without shidduchim.

These numbers reflect a total from all years.

Offline yos9694

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #161 on: December 01, 2021, 10:24:48 AM »
I don’t think you need to be a statistician. Basic math should suffice.

QED

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #162 on: December 01, 2021, 10:34:49 AM »
I participate in these discussions for one of two reasons:
1. To save the world/solve the world's problems.
2. To learn from other people's mistakes.

Personally, I'm not up to number one, so can we please put into clear words what the takeaway is on an individual's level, so that people can learn from other people's mistakes?

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #163 on: December 01, 2021, 10:36:33 AM »
Here are the numbers according to my calculation, based on the 30 years of data for Lakewood.

If all children born in Lakewood over the last 30 years did/will marry spouses the same age, there would be 2,407 boys without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 1 year younger than them, there would be about 452 boys without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 2 years younger than them, there would be about 1433 girls without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 3 years younger than them, there would be about 3290 girls without shidduchim.

These numbers reflect a total from all years.

The data isn't a match to the population under discussion, so what's the point of calculating numbers based on it?

Not to be snippy, but if overlook flaws in the underlying premises, we are doomed to endlessly recycle the same failures at attempting to find and implement a solution.

The issue that's bigger than a few percentage points excess in the girl to boy ratio is that there are 6 cohorts of girls in shidduchim at any given time (e.g. graduating class of 2015-2020 right now) vs. 3 cohorts of boys at any given time (e.g. graduating class of 2015-2017 right now). There are twice as many eligible girls and it's not a birth rate issue or something that can be fixed by lowering the age gap. You would have to literally kick out or write off half the eligible girl population in order for the age gap solution to make any practical difference.


Offline Euclid

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #164 on: December 01, 2021, 11:07:42 AM »
there are 6 cohorts of girls in shidduchim at any given time (e.g. graduating class of 2015-2020 right now) vs. 3 cohorts of boys at any given time (e.g. graduating class of 2015-2017 right now)
Why are there double the amount of girl cohorts?

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #165 on: December 01, 2021, 11:09:04 AM »
Bottom line is that this birth rate gap has been there for years yet was never a part of the discussion. What other relevant information are we missing?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #166 on: December 01, 2021, 11:11:03 AM »
The data isn't a match to the population under discussion, so what's the point of calculating numbers based on it?

Not to be snippy, but if overlook flaws in the underlying premises, we are doomed to endlessly recycle the same failures at attempting to find and implement a solution.

The issue that's bigger than a few percentage points excess in the girl to boy ratio is that there are 6 cohorts of girls in shidduchim at any given time (e.g. graduating class of 2015-2020 right now) vs. 3 cohorts of boys at any given time (e.g. graduating class of 2015-2017 right now). There are twice as many eligible girls and it's not a birth rate issue or something that can be fixed by lowering the age gap. You would have to literally kick out or write off half the eligible girl population in order for the age gap solution to make any practical difference.

That is focusing on process rather than outcomes. You can have as many or as few dating cohorts as you want, if at the end of the day the average boy ties the knot with a girl 3 years younger than him you will have a massive shortage of boys. The number of cohorts might have an impact on the process (the number of dates) but that’s about it.

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #167 on: December 01, 2021, 11:37:19 AM »
I may get flak for this, but I believe the kollel lifestyle is to blame. I am a fan of men learning in kollel after marriage, however I do think it had unintended consequences.

1. Yeshiva Elitist society: This created the whole 'top boy' mindset. Boys are being trained to state they will learn 'forever' even though they know it's not a likely outcome. Boys who don't say this are automatically put in a different tier.

2. Consequently this puts pressure on boys to marry rich. Their own rebbeim are encouraging this and parents are being forced to fork over tens of thousands of dollars to support their married children. Girls who have no money and are not able to support get left in the dust

3. Boys are groomed with an ego and to believe that they are entitled and deserving of the 'best'. They want the prettiest, skinniest, richest, best girl. They get piles of resumes and sift through them. Anyone who does not stand out in any way gets discarded.

4. As girls get older they get more accomplished, worldly, sophisticated etc. Boys do not, especially if they stay in Yeshiva. This creates an imbalance.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2021, 11:40:27 AM by pbf »

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #168 on: December 01, 2021, 11:39:09 AM »
Here are the numbers according to my calculation, based on the 30 years of data for Lakewood.

If all children born in Lakewood over the last 30 years did/will marry spouses the same age, there would be 2,407 boys without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 1 year younger than them, there would be about 452 boys without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 2 years younger than them, there would be about 1433 girls without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 3 years younger than them, there would be about 3290 girls without shidduchim.

These numbers reflect a total from all years.
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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #169 on: December 01, 2021, 11:43:50 AM »
Why are there double the amount of girl cohorts?

You literally quoted the explanation

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #170 on: December 01, 2021, 11:44:13 AM »
The Shidduch process relies mainly on the presence of a Shadchan (whether professional or just a good samaritan). In general boys wait for prospects to be brought to them.

Is anyone redting shidduchim to boys who are not on the market? Don’t see how things can just change without this.

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #171 on: December 01, 2021, 12:12:16 PM »
I may get flak for this, but I believe the kollel lifestyle is to blame. I am a fan of men learning in kollel after marriage, however I do think it had unintended consequences.

1. Yeshiva Elitist society: This created the whole 'top boy' mindset. Boys are being trained to state they will learn 'forever' even though they know it's not a likely outcome. Boys who don't say this are automatically put in a different tier.

2. Consequently this puts pressure on boys to marry rich. Their own rebbeim are encouraging this and parents are being forced to fork over tens of thousands of dollars to support their married children. Girls who have no money and are not able to support get left in the dust

3. Boys are groomed with an ego and to believe that they are entitled and deserving of the 'best'. They want the prettiest, skinniest, richest, best girl. They get piles of resumes and sift through them. Anyone who does not stand out in any way gets discarded.

4. As girls get older they get more accomplished, worldly, sophisticated etc. Boys do not, especially if they stay in Yeshiva. This creates an imbalance.
I'm not conviced all the blame or even most of it lies with the boys, the girls saying they want what they're not cut out for in this regard is a big issue.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #172 on: December 01, 2021, 12:22:33 PM »
I may get flak for this, but I believe the kollel lifestyle is to blame. I am a fan of men learning in kollel after marriage, however I do think it had unintended consequences.

1. Yeshiva Elitist society: This created the whole 'top boy' mindset. Boys are being trained to state they will learn 'forever' even though they know it's not a likely outcome. Boys who don't say this are automatically put in a different tier.

2. Consequently this puts pressure on boys to marry rich. Their own rebbeim are encouraging this and parents are being forced to fork over tens of thousands of dollars to support their married children. Girls who have no money and are not able to support get left in the dust

3. Boys are groomed with an ego and to believe that they are entitled and deserving of the 'best'. They want the prettiest, skinniest, richest, best girl. They get piles of resumes and sift through them. Anyone who does not stand out in any way gets discarded.

4. As girls get older they get more accomplished, worldly, sophisticated etc. Boys do not, especially if they stay in Yeshiva. This creates an imbalance.

--There are a decent proportion of girls who date more often than the average boy, (the wealthy, yichusdicke, and outstandingly attractive ones). It's the ones that are "measured as" average or below-average on one of many measures that count in the shidduch market, who suffer from few dates.

--There is a misperception that because boys have a pile of resume they are always in the middle of something (e.g. meet 20 girls per year). That's not the norm. They are drowning in information and meet maybe 5-10 girls per year, until they find the right one. Girls who go out with 5 boys a year, don't feel busy, as they have 2 months (on average) of silence between getting a 'yes' from a boy.

--The ease of making "shidduch suggestions" means boys have dozens of resumes (and they mistakenly assume all those girls would be interested in dating them). This makes the boys feel very confident (perhaps overconfident). It also creates confusion, complicates and slows decision making, and leads to comparisons that result in less frequent dating (If I already chose to go out with 'A' over 'B', that mentally puts 'B' in the bedieved/settling category, in which case, let me wait for the next wave of resumes to come in, rather than try meeting 'B').

I think shadchanim sending suggestions to both sides concurrently might help reduce the sense of an imbalance, albeit with other potential consequences.

I think more detailed profiles on shidduch resumes would help accelerate the screening process, leading to faster decision making, and more couples meeting.

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #173 on: December 01, 2021, 12:23:27 PM »
Here are the numbers according to my calculation, based on the 30 years of data for Lakewood.

If all children born in Lakewood over the last 30 years did/will marry spouses the same age, there would be 2,407 boys without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 1 year younger than them, there would be about 452 boys without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 2 years younger than them, there would be about 1433 girls without shidduchim.
If all boys did/will marry girls that are 3 years younger than them, there would be about 3290 girls without shidduchim.

These numbers reflect a total from all years.
Using basic math at some point you will run out of girls unless you believe in a pyramid.
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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #174 on: December 01, 2021, 12:28:37 PM »
I'm not conviced all the blame or even most of it lies with the boys, the girls saying they want what they're not cut out for in this regard is a big issue.

You're right, it creates unrealistic expectations all around. But in general there are more girls willing to sacrifice for that lifestyle

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #175 on: December 01, 2021, 12:30:49 PM »
Using basic math at some point you will run out of girls unless you believe in a pyramid.

The orthodox population has on average around 6 children, so the population is tripling in a generation (about 30 years), or several % of growth each year.

This and the tendancy of men to seek women several years younger than themselves as a spouse is believed to be contributing to a material imbalance between the population of men and women in the prime dating years (18-21 for women, 23-26 for men).

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #176 on: December 01, 2021, 12:37:26 PM »
The orthodox population has on average around 6 children, so the population is tripling in a generation (about 30 years), or several % of growth each year.

This and the tendancy of men to seek women several years younger than themselves as a spouse is believed to be contributing to a material imbalance between the population of men and women in the prime dating years (18-21 for women, 23-26 for men).
I understand but you still have more boys born every year.
So, unless the growth continues to increase, or the age difference increases you will run out of girls.
Basically, if you started marring at the same age there would be a massive number of boys left out.
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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #177 on: December 01, 2021, 12:44:02 PM »
--There are a decent proportion of girls who date more often than the average boy, (the wealthy, yichusdicke, and outstandingly attractive ones). It's the ones that are "measured as" average or below-average on one of many measures that count in the shidduch market, who suffer from few dates.

Interestingly, I never find that the most beautiful girls get married first or the least attractive girls get married last (in yeshivish circles)

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #178 on: December 01, 2021, 12:46:12 PM »
Interestingly, I never find that the most beautiful girls get married first or the least attractive girls get married last (in yeshivish circles)
you may want to stop looking at girls,  :P unless you are one yourself in which your opinion of beautifull means almost nothing to the male population...

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #179 on: December 01, 2021, 12:48:36 PM »
you may want to stop looking at girls,  :P unless you are one yourself in which your opinion of beautifull means almost nothing to the male population...

I am one myself. I may have a different opinion or perspective than the male population but there is a general consensus on what is considered beautiful and what is considered really not.