Author Topic: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis  (Read 89931 times)

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #220 on: December 01, 2021, 06:38:54 PM »
In any event, it seems to me that the numbers graduating high school would be more useful and shouldn't be that hard to come by.

I didn’t graduate along with others in my class. Might be better to use high school entrants or possibly get stats from Dor Yesharim - do they go to every school?
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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #221 on: December 01, 2021, 07:28:10 PM »
I didn’t graduate along with others in my class. Might be better to use high school entrants or possibly get stats from Dor Yesharim - do they go to every school?
Girls yes, boys no.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline EliJelly

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #222 on: December 01, 2021, 08:48:39 PM »
Keep parents out of shidduchim... :o
By the chassidim shidduchim is still pretty much arranged by the parents and yet there is no crisis there.

Offline as2

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #223 on: December 01, 2021, 09:30:12 PM »
By the chassidim shidduchim is still pretty much arranged by the parents and yet there is no crisis there.
My point wasn't specifically about the crisis. I was making a general statement.
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Offline jye

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #224 on: December 01, 2021, 10:56:54 PM »
I don’t think you need to be a statistician. Basic math should suffice. You are forgetting the cumulative effect. (Calculating this on the fly so correct me if my math is off.)

Let’s take Lakewood births and do the math. Let’s assume we are starting from a clean slate and that every single boy makes it through the system and marries one of the girls.

If we take the girls from 1998 and the boys from 1995 (the 3 year age gap), after every girl gets married there are 75 who don’t have any boys for them (526-451=75)

For the 1999 cohort it is 59 extra (590-531) PLUS the 75 girls from the previous year.

The 2000 cohort is an additional 139.

2001 yields an additional 145.

2002 girls cohort yields an additional 216.

By 2003 not only are there an excess 282 girls (922-640=292), there are still 634 girls left over from previous years so there are actually 1.556 girls vying for only 640 boys. ( In the chassidish world boys marry girls older than them, it’s only the Litvish where boys have their pick that it’s rare.)

And Lakewood of the 1990’s accounted for only a fraction of the frum population. Multiply the numbers times 10 and you get an idea of the magnitude of the problem. 15,000 girls vying for 6400 boys. The only way you are getting a date in that kind of environment is if you somehow stand out. Money. Yichus. Parents went to the same bungalow colony. Chance encounters. Etc. a perfectly average girl with nothing to differentiate herself is likely going to find herself being relegated to the thousands of excess girls. Is it any wonder that thousands of girls aren’t getting dates?

And this model is actually far more rosy than things are in actuality because it starts with a clean slate, ignoring the cumulative pile of unmarried girls already in the mix from previous years. And we are assuming a perfect world where every boys is marriage material and actually gets married to one of the girls in the pool. Any additional boys that are unmarriagable due to falling through the system etc. only takes what is already a calamity and adds to it.










It’s pretty astounding that the math predicts that a 3-4 year age gap will result in a shidduch crisis for girls, the crisis appears to match the predicted numbers, yet there are pages of comments all focusing on their pet peeve as the cause, whether it’s the working boys, the kollel system, picky girls, etc. etc.

How about first refuting the math and then trying to to pin the crisis on your pet peeve?

Imagine if there was a 30% increase in the mortality rate among young men, and there was a corresponding statistic of a 30% rise in homicides involving youno male victims, but everyone starts coting drug OD’s, suicides, covid vaccines, not taking the vaccine etc. as the cause.

Are we really that bad at math and logic? I thought klal yisrael was supposed to be the עם נבון וחכם.


Offline EliJelly

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #225 on: December 01, 2021, 11:30:48 PM »
My point wasn't specifically about the crisis. I was making a general statement.
How can a 19 year old be trusted to choose a girl that his late grand bubby wouldn't be ashamed to become a Mechutanista with her late grand bubby?? :P

Offline David61

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #226 on: December 02, 2021, 12:44:12 AM »
I don’t think you need to be a statistician. Basic math should suffice.






Apparently you DO need a statistician to point out that Lakewood's population growth is not representative of the overall frum community because family size is above average relative to other large frum communities and because of a net influx of families moving in over this period due to affordable housing etc...

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #227 on: December 02, 2021, 01:00:08 AM »
Girls yes, boys no.

So you’re saying Dor Yesharim invented the shidduch crises?

/s
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Offline lcm

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #228 on: December 02, 2021, 01:54:28 AM »
Can we get a wiki of all the proposed issues and all the proposed solutions?

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #229 on: December 02, 2021, 10:15:23 AM »
It’s pretty astounding that the math predicts that a 3-4 year age gap will result in a shidduch crisis for girls, the crisis appears to match the predicted numbers, yet there are pages of comments all focusing on their pet peeve as the cause, whether it’s the working boys, the kollel system, picky girls, etc. etc.

How about first refuting the math and then trying to to pin the crisis on your pet peeve?

Imagine if there was a 30% increase in the mortality rate among young men, and there was a corresponding statistic of a 30% rise in homicides involving youno male victims, but everyone starts coting drug OD’s, suicides, covid vaccines, not taking the vaccine etc. as the cause.

Are we really that bad at math and logic? I thought klal yisrael was supposed to be the עם נבון וחכם.
Because the math only shows the symptoms, not the cause, imo. If boys would marry their age because they don't have ridiculous expectations caused by the this whole "top" system, this would not be an issue.

Offline YitzyS

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Offline Dawie

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #231 on: December 02, 2021, 10:43:55 AM »
Because the math only shows the symptoms, not the cause, imo. If boys would marry their age because they don't have ridiculous expectations caused by the this whole "top" system, this would not be an issue.
The boys aren't being redt to their age and the 23 year old girl is not interested in the 23 year old noob guy

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #232 on: December 02, 2021, 11:07:18 AM »
The boys aren't being redt to their age and the 23 year old girl is not interested in the 23 year old noob guy
I can vouch for at least one shidduch of 23-year-olds...  :D

Offline as2

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #233 on: December 02, 2021, 11:11:18 AM »
I'm not sure why we have a system that seems to dictate who does what. Be it a shadchen, parents, etc. My wife is ~6 month age difference from me, and we got married at 19/20. That's what worked for me. Why don't people do what actually works for them as opposed to following like sheep? I tend to think that, both parents and shadchanim can have very negative effects on getting someone married, but we chalk it up to being "the system".
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Offline ckmk47

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #234 on: December 02, 2021, 11:34:39 AM »
I think parents have to look at who their child is.  And customize the plan to them.
The timing, who they look for, where they look.


For many who's parents just do the 'system' rote, it works.  But when parents are looking for someone who doesn't fit their kid....
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Offline yos9694

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #235 on: December 02, 2021, 11:37:26 AM »
Everyone IS doing what works for them, we can assume. But the agudah has never stopped supporting this theory, even though data experts have never endorsed it. Liking this theory is understandable (very) but it just doesn't hold water if we're looking for root causes or solutions unfortunately.

Offline S209

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #236 on: December 02, 2021, 11:46:01 AM »
Apparently you DO need a statistician to point out that Lakewood's population growth is not representative of the overall frum community because family size is above average relative to other large frum communities
If Lakewood type people are marrying Lakewood type people then this is irrelevant, as presumably type dictates family size as opposed to location.
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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #237 on: December 02, 2021, 11:51:13 AM »
If Lakewood type people are marrying Lakewood type people then this is irrelevant, as presumably type dictates family size as opposed to location.
I think you're joining too many people under 1 definition, many many lakewood people will marry into families that don't fit the lakewood definition. To assume everyone in lakewood marries into a family that fits that description is just silly.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #238 on: December 02, 2021, 01:11:09 PM »
I tend to think that, both parents and shadchanim can have very negative effects on getting someone married, but we chalk it up to being "the system".
Nothing to do with the system. It is like that everywhere.
People stinking their nose where it doesn't belong.  :)
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Offline as2

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Re: Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis
« Reply #239 on: December 02, 2021, 01:28:12 PM »
Nothing to do with the system. It is like that everywhere.
People stinking their nose where it doesn't belong.  :)
Within our communities, there is a bit of a "system" and it has it's positive and negative impacts.


Overall though, you are most definitely right.
Memories last forever, make them while you can.