Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis

[imayid2]

https://darchecha.substack.com/p/resolving-the-shidduch-age-gap-theory
https://darchecha.substack.com/p/connecting-jewish-life-and-shidduchim

[jye]

https://darchecha.substack.com/p/resolving-the-shidduch-age-gap-theory
https://darchecha.substack.com/p/connecting-jewish-life-and-shidduchim

Somebody’s numbers are off. If Nasi’s birth data is accurate (seemingly far more reliable than attempts to verify school data) there will be a crisis no matter how you manipulate the school data. Are their numbers off?

[avromie7]

https://darchecha.substack.com/p/resolving-the-shidduch-age-gap-theory
https://darchecha.substack.com/p/connecting-jewish-life-and-shidduchim

I think he's missing most of the Lakewood schools.

[David61]

https://thelakewoodscoop.com/news/breakthrough-prominent-lakewood-yeshivah-first-to-announce-its-nixing-4th-year-bais-medrash-in-effort-to-help-solve-shidduch-crisis/

Prominent lakewood yeshivah announces its nixing 4th year bais medrash in effort to help solve shidduch crisis

Is there is any connection between this and Rechnitz' speech? (seemingly within days of each other)
It appears that this announcement occurred before Rechnitz' speech (the former was already reported late afternoon on Jan 14, the latter only occurred the evening of Jan 14th). 

[Just A Jew]

Somebody’s numbers are off. If Nasi’s birth data is accurate (seemingly far more reliable than attempts to verify school data) there will be a crisis no matter how you manipulate the school data. Are their numbers off?

Is it weird that there are more boys than girls born each year based on these stats?

[imayid2]

Is it weird that there are more boys than girls born each year based on these stats?

From the link I posted above

Between 2010 and 2021, births grew at an average annual rate of 2.77%. To my knowledge, that’s pretty much unique in the entire Western world right now. So we’re primarily looking at Jews, here.

Over that 11 year period, the average male to female ratio was 106:100. That means 106 boys were born for every 100 girls, which is just slightly higher than what you’d expect from a large population (which is normally 105:100).

[yuneeq]

Somebody’s numbers are off. If Nasi’s birth data is accurate (seemingly far more reliable than attempts to verify school data) there will be a crisis no matter how you manipulate the school data. Are their numbers off?

Nasi’s numbers are far off from state published birth data, which includes all Lakewood births.
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/query/result/birth/BirthBirthCnty/Count.html

Nasi:
2000 - 640 boys, 631 girls = 1,271
NJ data - 977 boys, 967 girls = 1,944
65% of total

2001 - 814 boys, 734 girls = 1,548
NJ data - 1,145 boys, 1,055 girls = 2,200
70% of total

2002 - 862 boys, 810 girls = 1,672
NJ data - 1,210 boys, 1,155 girls = 2,365
70% of total

Also interesting - to note how the ratio changes drastically and definitely has an impact
2000 boys - Nasi 640 vs state 977 (65.5%)
2003 girls - Nasi 922 vs state 1,269 (72.6%)

2001 boys - Nasi 814 vs state 1,145 (71%)
2004 girls - Nasi 975 vs state 1,348 (72.3)

Though overall based on the state data for Lakewood there should be an age gap (assuming every birth becomes a frum eligible bachelor/bachelorette), though not as drastic as what Nasi presents

[aygart]

The big question is not whether or not an age gap exists but rather the extent of it and what other factors may affect things. Also up for debate is whether or not there is a crisis at all or is the whole thing anecdotal.

[UKinNYS]

Mishpacha had a whole series last year:
https://mishpacha.com/column/the-lonely-wait/

numbers argument doesn't stand.
https://mishpacha.com/the-truth-behind-the-numbers/

with many responses
https://mishpacha.com/inbox-issue-947/
https://mishpacha.com/inbox-issue-948/
https://mishpacha.com/the-lonely-wait-the-conversation-continues/

[jye]

Also up for debate is whether or not there is a crisis at all or is the whole thing anecdotal.

Is the earth flat?

[aygart]

Is the earth flat?

There are demographers who did a study and found that there is none so I am going to assume that question is because you think the earth is flat, but I can assure you that it is not.

[Euclid]

The big question is not whether or not an age gap exists but rather the extent of it and what other factors may affect things. Also up for debate is whether or not there is a crisis at all or is the whole thing anecdotal.

Pretty crazy that something that's only anecdotal has been a consistent anecdote for at least a quarter of a century.

[aygart]

Pretty crazy that something that's only anecdotal has been a consistent anecdote for at least a quarter of a century.

FIts in with many other items based on anecdotal evidence. It is very possible that specific demographics have a crisis such as in certain out of town demographics which may be offset by other groups while among boys thing are spread more smoothly. If this is the case then we are working on solving the wrong problem and heading to failure.

[yawn]

Pretty crazy that something that's only anecdotal has been a consistent anecdote for at least a quarter of a century.

And people thought the Earth was flat for many quarters of centuries.

[jye]

There are demographers who did a study and found that there is none so I am going to assume that question is because you think the earth is flat, but I can assure you that it is not.

MO researchers whose methodology, was apparently to circulate an online study.

The responses of the audience they managed to reach included sentiments such as that there is way too much gender separation during younger years in the community. Is it any wonder that their conclusion might not reflect the reality on the ground?

According to their data, a mere 8% of 30-year-old girls
are single. In Rechnitz daughters class it’s a third. Almost overwhelming anecdotal evidence tells you that there is a flaw in their conclusion that there is no mismatch between boys and girls. Ask everyone who has a boy and girl in the.parsha at the same time as I have had and they will tell you that whether one is looking for long-term learner, short term kollel, or straight out working boy there is an imbalance between the girls and boys in the parsha.

[aygart]

MO researchers whose methodology, was apparently to circulate an online study.

The responses of the audience they managed to reach included sentiments such as that there is way too much gender separation during younger years in the community. Is it any wonder that their conclusion might not reflect the reality on the ground?

So why doesn't someone do a real study? My father was a mathematician and had some conversations with Black hat demographers who also felt that the age gap was unconvincing.

[Dan]

There used to be a public list of every Lubavitch educated single boys and girls. Everyone complained about how there are so many more single girls than boys...but the list was just about equal.

[Dan]

There used to be a public list of every Lubavitch educated single boys and girls. Everyone complained about how there are so many more single girls than boys...but the list was just about equal.

Checking my memory here.

Picked a random date, September 2011.

857 boys: https://web.archive.org/web/20110926150441/http://lubavitchsingles.com/bochrim/list.html
869 girls: https://web.archive.org/web/20111014032830/http://lubavitchsingles.com/girls/index.html

[AsherO]

There used to be a public list of every Lubavitch educated single boys and girls.

Uneducated Lubavitchers just didn't make the list

[Dan]

Checking my memory here.

Picked a random date, September 2011.

857 boys: https://web.archive.org/web/20110926150441/http://lubavitchsingles.com/bochrim/list.html
869 girls: https://web.archive.org/web/20111014032830/http://lubavitchsingles.com/girls/index.html

And this is despite girls going on the list earlier than boys.

I'd like to see hard evidence that the "shortage of boys" is anything but anecdotal. There can be plenty of other reasons for a crisis, including parents, boys, and girls that are too picky and/or are looking for hollywood style love.