Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis

[avromie7]

100% true. But try explaining that to a girl who’s 22 or 23 and did not date even one guy.

I don't think anyone here is arguing that it isn't difficult for some or many girls. That doesn't mean there is a shortage of girls or boys.

[aygart]

100% true. But try explaining that to a girl who’s 22 or 23 and did not date even one guy.

This is true but also an anecdote

In general more dates equals more chances of getting married.

Only if they are quality dates. Either way the whole big deal being made is not for the feelings of the girl who is missing out on getting turned down by bad dates, as difficult as that may be, but for a supposed issue of them not getting married at all.

[David61]

I don't think anyone here is arguing that it isn't difficult for some or many girls. That doesn't mean there is a shortage of girls or boys.

It all arises because of the modest (10%) imbalance.

When there are 1100 people looking to buy 1000 available cars (10% shortfall in supply), the prices could rise 50%
When there are 900 people looking to buy 1000 cars (10% surplus in supply) (from various dealers that are not coordinating with each other), the prices could could drop 50%.

When things are (1) viewed as a necessity and (2) there are no alternative/substitutes, the elasticity (& magnifying effect) is greater.

[aygart]

It all arises because of the modest imbalance.

When there are 1100 people looking to buy 1000 available cars (10% shortfall in supply), the prices could rise 50%
When there are 900 people looking to buy 1000 cars (10% surplus in demand) (from various dealers that are not coordinating with each other), the prices could could drop 50%.

Maybe, but if over time that gets offset by other factors then it is not so relevant. The only thing that would be a real issue is if there are girls not getting married at all (or past child bearing age), or if you want to make some other arbitrary age then go ahead. If at age x the number of unmarried is within an expected range then this is not the issue. There may be other issues such as the unmarried girls being heavily weighted towards out of town but that is a different issue and needs different treatment. How about we find the real issue and treat it instead of speculating? if after reviewing all of the factors we come to the same result then that is a much stronger argument to do something about it.

[aygart]

I think what happens is that the presence and knowledge of the supply/demand leads to the boys-side to aim high (which magnifies the effect of the modest imbalance).
--the top 25% of girls (based on personality, appearance, wealth, yichus, best connections, whatever) get 60% of the dates
--the next 25% of girls get 25% of the dates
--the next 50% of girls get the remaining 15% of dates

Numbers (%) used are examples for the purpose of illustration.

They each still hopefully marry only one boy.

[avromie7]

I think what happens is that the presence and knowledge of the supply/demand leads to the boys-side to aim high (which magnifies the effect of the modest imbalance).
--the top 25% of girls (based on personality, appearance, wealth, yichus, best connections, whatever) get 60% of the dates
--the next 25% of girls get 25% of the dates
--the next 50% of girls get the remaining 15% of dates

Numbers (%) used are examples for the purpose of illustration.

Is this perception caused by reality, or the perception the cause of the reality?

[yuneeq]

This is true but also an anecdote

In general more dates equals more chances of getting married.

In reality it’s more like a bell curve. The more they keep dating the odds increase that they get married late or never at all.

[justaregularguy]

Guys when you figure it out let me know what my odds are, or if I’m the problem

[aygart]

Guys when you figure it out let me know what my odds are, or if I’m the problem

If you are a regular guy the odds are in your favor.

[Dan]

A bit hard to follow here as every comment needs to be assessed with the commenters background and community.

In the so-called Chadidish world from my anecdotal perspective, the underlying issue is there are more good (for the lack of a better word) then boys.
This was explained by others above that it is easier for girls to stay within the system then for boys.
This doesn't mean dropouts or OTD just there are many many girls looking for full learning boys than there is actually full learning boys.

So there's a structural hashkfic mismatch, along the lines of structural unemployment. That's not going to be fixed by tokens like ending classes for older boys.

[David61]

Maybe, but if over time that gets offset by other factors then it is not so relevant. The only thing that would be a real issue is if there are girls not getting married at all (or past child bearing age), or if you want to make some other arbitrary age then go ahead. If at age x the number of unmarried is within an expected range then this is not the issue. There may be other issues such as the unmarried girls being heavily weighted towards out of town but that is a different issue and needs different treatment. How about we find the real issue and treat it instead of speculating? if after reviewing all of the factors we come to the same result then that is a much stronger argument to do something about it.

"All's well that ends well", is just not accurate in this context.

Even if the number of unmarried at 35-years-old is as would otherwise be expected (I don't know how that can be proven either way without an alternate universe) there are significant implications from 'supply/demand distortions'.

The stress/emotional pain/fear "of being in shidduchim for several extra years" is huge and that is extended/magnified by the distortions. (I assume you acknowledge the distortions cause many girls/couples to get married later)

Then there is the peripheral damage including a tremendous amount of extra time/effort wasted arising from these distortions (even the mother of boys spend inordinate time filtering through the barrage of suggestions), the lost years of child bearing/rearing of the couple, the contribution to divorces and suboptimal marriages, including the girls who feel they've settled, and the kids whose grow up in a home where the parents feel they've settled . . . .

Then there are the (minority) of boys who are clearly not cut out for learning who bide their time idly to be well-positioned for shidduchim, their idealistic wives who are devastated when they realize that about their husband. Then there are the boys who aren't cut out for learning but can't maintain the role and feel like complete failure or rebel  . . . and all the follow-on side-effects of that. . .

[imayid2]

"All's well that ends well", is just not accurate in this context.

Even if the number of unmarried at 35-years-old is as would otherwise be expected (I don't know how that can be proven either way without an alternate universe) there are significant implications from 'supply/demand distortions'.

The stress/emotional pain/fear "of being in shidduchim for several extra years" is huge and that is extended/magnified by the distortions. (I assume you acknowledge the distortions cause many people girls to get married later)

Then there is the peripheral damage including a tremendous amount of extra time/effort wasted arising from these distortions (even the mother of boys spend inordinate time filtering through the barrage of suggestions), the lost years of child bearing/rearing of the couple, the contribution to divorces and suboptimal marriages, including the girls who feel they've settled, and the kids whose grow up in a home where the parents feel they've settled . . . .

Then there are the (minority) of boys who are clearly not cut out for learning who bide their time idly to be well-positioned for shidduchim, their idealistic wives who are devastated when they realize that about their husband. Then there are the boys who aren't cut out for learning but can't maintain the role and feel like complete failure or rebel  . . . and all the follow-on side-effects of that. . .

If the problem is the distortion then the fix would be to focus on clarifying that

[David61]

If the problem is the to distortion then the fix would be to focus on clarifying that

It's clear to nearly everyone involved that there is a large supply/demand imbalance/distortion. (even many of the age-gap theory skeptics)

Merely clarifying that won't do much. It's reducing/reversing the imbalance that would presumably improve the situation.

[yuneeq]

There’s an age gap, personality gap, religion gap, and who knows how many other gaps that are causing whatever imbalances there are. However one thing is clear to me, there’s no one intelligent enough that can explain (with proof) the cause and solution to this issue.

Which leaves me with a couple thoughts. If God made this problem difficult enough to understand and even more difficult to solve, then the solution can’t be to try and change the world. The answer is to pray. Everything else is make-believe hishtadlus trying to pretend we control the world. Hint: we don’t.

And second, the crisis is not an imbalance between 1000 boys and 1100 girls. The crisis is each individual that didn’t find their one match. Stop believing in the kfira that statistics determine your eligibility to get married, and realize that Hashem has one unique person to match with another. How many of us here think we needed a pool of 1100 people to get married? How many in our pool when we’re 5 are in the same pool at age 22? My pool was completely altered by people moving, changing lifestyle, people becoming religious or leaving it, and etc. How many of our spouses (or ourselves) fit into a comfortable statistical box whose outcome can be manipulated by the favored agenda of the day? The solution, once again, is prayer, not meaningless finger pointing or poorly planned attempts at social engineering.

[Definitions2]

There’s an age gap, personality gap, religion gap, and who knows how many other gaps that are causing whatever imbalances there are. However one thing is clear to me, there’s no one intelligent enough that can explain (with proof) the cause and solution to this issue.

Which leaves me with a couple thoughts. If God made this problem difficult enough to understand and even more difficult to solve, then the solution can’t be to try and change the world.

This isn't a work of God it's a work of humanity.

(Which reminds me I never went back to that thread about bechira. I had some things I wanted to clarify but never got around to it. I'm lazy.)

[avromie7]

This isn't a work of God it's a work of humanity.

(Which reminds me I never went back to that thread about bechira. I had some things I wanted to clarify but never got around to it. I'm lazy.)

I can't leave this here unanswered, because it is wrong to say God doesn't run the world.

[jye]

I can't leave this here unanswered, because it is wrong to say God doesn't run the world.

G-d killed the הרוג in the parsha of עגלה ערופה too.

[jye]

There’s an age gap, personality gap, religion gap, and who knows how many other gaps that are causing whatever imbalances there are. However one thing is clear to me, there’s no one intelligent enough that can explain (with proof) the cause and solution to this issue.

Which leaves me with a couple thoughts. If God made this problem difficult enough to understand and even more difficult to solve, then the solution can’t be to try and change the world. The answer is to pray. Everything else is make-believe hishtadlus trying to pretend we control the world. Hint: we don’t.

We can say the same about the impossible burden of school tuition, OTD, the millions of our brothers and sisters who are assimilating, the plague of SA and technology, mental health, and so many other vexing issues. We didn’t. We built organizations and put in massive amounts of effort in the face of daunting challenges to try to address them.

We’ve spent over 20 years praying that our Shidduchim situation somehow becomes like Eretz Yisrael and other communities where no crisis exists, and despite our fervent prayers the problem has only gotten more severe. Maybe it’s because we are taking the easy way out by praying. I remember once reading a line perhaps in one of the classics describing a lazy character: “Nah, he’s not a lazy guy, he just prefers to pray for things over rolling up his sleeves and doing ‘em. “

[avromie7]

We can say the same about the impossible burden of school tuition, OTD, the millions of our brothers and sisters who are assimilating, the plague of SA and technology, mental health, and so many other vexing issues. We didn’t. We built organizations and put in massive amounts of effort in the face of daunting challenges to try to address them.

All of those are personal issues that affect many people. They can be solved one person at a time. The shidduch "crisis" is a societal "issue" and can only be "resolved" by reengineering society. For some insight into how society reengineering works, take a look at communist Russia.

[aygart]

"All's well that ends well", is just not accurate in this context.

Even if the number of unmarried at 35-years-old is as would otherwise be expected (I don't know how that can be proven either way without an alternate universe) there are significant implications from 'supply/demand distortions'.

The stress/emotional pain/fear "of being in shidduchim for several extra years" is huge and that is extended/magnified by the distortions. (I assume you acknowledge the distortions cause many girls/couples to get married later)

Then there is the peripheral damage including a tremendous amount of extra time/effort wasted arising from these distortions (even the mother of boys spend inordinate time filtering through the barrage of suggestions), the lost years of child bearing/rearing of the couple, the contribution to divorces and suboptimal marriages, including the girls who feel they've settled, and the kids whose grow up in a home where the parents feel they've settled . . . .

Then there are the (minority) of boys who are clearly not cut out for learning who bide their time idly to be well-positioned for shidduchim, their idealistic wives who are devastated when they realize that about their husband. Then there are the boys who aren't cut out for learning but can't maintain the role and feel like complete failure or rebel  . . . and all the follow-on side-effects of that. . .

If it currently ends up balancing out for whatever reason then if you change something from the overall picture to fix a relatively minor part of it then you knock the whole thing off balance.

If the problem is the distortion then the fix would be to focus on clarifying that

Exactly! and if you don't you cause collateral or not so collateral damage. Lets say for example (I am making this up to illustrate) that among chassidim there is an opposite issue like many have anecdotally said, and over time the 28 year old yeshivishe girls and chassidishe boys "settle" for each other. This can end up balancing out the entire thing. What happens now if you change the imbalance among the yeshivishe boys and now there is no 28 year old girl? You are now condemning the chassidishe boy to remain unmarried. this is an illustration of why it is a bad idea to try societal engineering and even worse if you don't even attempt to review the whole picture but rather rely on anecdotes and the one piece that you "chapped on to".

All of those are personal issues that affect many people. They can be solved one person at a time. The shidduch "crisis" is a societal "issue" and can only be "resolved" by reengineering society. For some insight into how society reengineering works, take a look at communist Russia.

And when all is said and done, the sloppiness stands a high likelihood af being machriv klal yisroel rather than fixing it.