Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis

[avromie7]

If a change can be made once, it can be made twice.
What's an example of something you're worried about?
It doesn't have to be something that you thought through from a to z. Just picking at your mind.

How would that happen?

The goal of the close the age gap proponents is to increase the number of boys available to girls in every age. If there is a shortage of boys, that would be a good thing. If there isn't a shortage of boys and now you increase the number of boys, then we end up with a shortage of girls.

[yitzgar]

I thought the opposing side of the age gap theory claims that it's not a numbers issue.

Right. Because they believe the numbers are actually even in the current situation of girls starting younger than boys.

[Euclid]

Are you comparing apples to apples?

Yes, that means the growth factor is decreasing therefore an age gap of 4 years won't be as big of an issue.

[avromie7]

I thought the opposing side of the age gap theory claims that it's not a numbers issue.

If the numbers are good now, and you mess with the numbers, congratulations you just created the numbers issue you were trying to fix.

[Euclid]

Right. Because they believe the numbers are actually even in the current situation of girls starting younger than boys.

 If the numbers are good now, and you mess with the numbers, congratulations you just created the numbers issue you were trying to fix.

Why would that be the case? Why would there be the same amount of girls as boys who are born 4 years earlier?

If they're arguing that 4 years isn't a significant amount of time to affect the numbers, then that should hold true whether there's a 4 year gap, 1 year gap, or no gap at all. 

[yitzgar]

Yes, that means the growth factor is decreasing therefore an age gap of 4 years won't be as big of an issue.

I meant are your anecdotes representing reality? There are different families having children today than a bunch of years ago. Are you comparing families that have the same hashkafa etc? Because maybe family sizes are the same, but you are observing different circles

[yitzgar]

Why would that be the case? Why would there be the same amount of girls as boys who are born 4 years earlier?

If they're arguing that 4 years isn't a significant amount of time to affect the numbers, then that should hold true whether there's a 4 year gap, 1 year gap, or no gap at all. 

They argue that there are actually the same amount (roughly) of boys and girls in shidduchim currently

[imayid2]

Examining Average Age at First Marriage within Orthodox Judaism: A Large Community-Based Study

[Euclid]

I meant are your anecdotes representing reality? There are different families having children today than a bunch of years ago. Are you comparing families that have the same hashkafa etc? Because maybe family sizes are the same, but you are observing different circles

My anecdote: I'm in my upper 30s, and I can maybe count on 2 hands the number of people my age in Lakewood (and I know most people my age) who will be having 9-10 kids (based on their current amount). To me it seems that last generation's 9, 10, or 11 is today 6, 7, or 8.

[avromie7]

Why would that be the case? Why would there be the same amount of girls as boys who are born 4 years earlier?

If they're arguing that 4 years isn't a significant amount of time to affect the numbers, then that should hold true whether there's a 4 year gap, 1 year gap, or no gap at all. 

There are many possible reasons, and it's likely a combination of at least some of them. None of which are that it's too short to make a difference. Here are 2 I can think of offhand.

1) The average age gap is actually less than 4 years (anecdotally, in my family it's 1.5 years, 2.5 years, and 6 weeks. For my wife's family it's 2 years.)
2) There are more boys born every year

ETA: The whole premise of the age gap theory is based on a few percent difference each year (growth rate minus the greater number of boys born each year). It's ridiculous to think that G-d can't figure out how to make some minor adjustments of a few percentage points to make everything work out.

[avromie7]

They argue that there are actually the same amount (roughly) of boys and girls in shidduchim currently

Incorrect. Its that although there are more girls in shidduchim it's because they start younger and spend more time "in shidduchim" before the boys start shidduchim. It means girls wait longer, but there isn't an actual shortage of boys.

[Euclid]

Anyone know if the younger children of the rav who's been making waves for his comments on the shidduch crisis married closer to their own age? Many (most?) of his older children married people with a massive age gap (5+ years).

[Tzvi687]

Maybe everyone should daven more the first 30 days of pregnancy

[aygart]

If a change can be made once, it can be made twice.

How long have people been talking about this change?

What's an example of something you're worried about?

Even based on the anecdotes, there is supposedly a surplus of boys in some chassidishe communities. Both these boys and potential surplus girls in yeshivish communities often end up marrying, thereby alleviating both surpluses. If you change the start social engineering to end the supposed surplus of girls then you can be dooming chassidishe boys to never get married.

[yitzgar]

My anecdote: I'm in my upper 30s, and I can maybe count on 2 hands the number of people my age in Lakewood (and I know most people my age) who will be having 9-10 kids (based on their current amount). To me it seems that last generation's 9, 10, or 11 is today 6, 7, or 8.

If you actually know most people your age, I can't argue, but I was going to suggest that maybe your circles have changed since you were a kid

[jye]

Incorrect. Its that although there are more girls in shidduchim it's because they start younger and spend more time "in shidduchim" before the boys start shidduchim. It means girls wait longer, but there isn't an actual shortage of boys.

I think what you are trying to say is that if we were to take a hypothetical world with an even population year to year, where girls were in Shidduchim from age 19-23 and boys from age 23-25 then we would EXPECT to see twice as many girls in Shidduchim as boys, yet all would get married since the number of girls “in Shidduchim” is a red herring; it’s the number of boys that marry and take girls off the market each year that counts. I get that. That actually makes sense and would mean that shrinking the number of girls actively in Shidduchim would relieve much of the pressure even though it wouldn’t  necessarily deal with the age gap depending on how it would be structured.

[jye]

I not familiar with the study or its authenticity but to claim that 2 girls in Shidduchim for every boy has no bearing on marriage and the Shidduch crisis is completely not in reality. Sorry.

I’ll take that back. As avromie7 pointed out it does have a bearing on the stress and pressure in Shidduchim, and the harder time girls have getting a yes from a quality boy, but it doesn’t necessarily have a bearing on ultimately getting married.

[Euclid]

Maybe everyone should daven more the first 30 days of pregnancy

Not everyone is aware they're pregnant then

[Just A Jew]

ETA: The whole premise of the age gap theory is based on a few percent difference each year (growth rate minus the greater number of boys born each year). It's ridiculous to think that G-d can't figure out how to make some minor adjustments of a few percentage points to make everything work out.

I remember seeing something about gravity in an argument for G-d's existence. I don't remember it exactly, but the gist was that if there was 1% more or 1% less gravity on Earth, the world would cease to exist. The point was that a creation made so precise could not possibly be random. To reduce shidduchim to percentage points and studies as if something so important to G-d can be manipulated by man by moving some numbers around on a chart is... I don't even have the words.

Maybe it has nothing to do with the numbers and has everything to do with values. What standards are we setting for our kids in shidduchim? What values are we teaching them to look for in a partner? If a person starts being more open to "out there" shidduchim as they get older and they "settle" for someone who they wouldn't have looked at 5-10 years earlier, and ultimately they have a very happy and successful marriage, maybe those standards should have been applied earlier?

[Dan]

I remember seeing something about gravity in an argument for G-d's existence. I don't remember it exactly, but the gist was that if there was 1% more or 1% less gravity on Earth, the world would cease to exist. The point was that a creation made so precise could not possibly be random. To reduce shidduchim to percentage points and studies as if something so important to G-d can be manipulated by man by moving some numbers around on a chart is... I don't even have the words.

Maybe it has nothing to do with the numbers and has everything to do with values. What standards are we setting for our kids in shidduchim? What values are we teaching them to look for in a partner? If a person starts being more open to "out there" shidduchim as they get older and they "settle" for someone who they wouldn't have looked at 5-10 years earlier, and ultimately they have a very happy and successful marriage, maybe those standards should have been applied earlier?

+1K.