Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis

[Cbs]

http://www.bloglovin.com/m/1786510/421498470/fb
 
quote:"Chabad girls are known as untznius,"

[jj1000]

http://www.bloglovin.com/m/1786510/421498470/fb
 
quote:"Chabad girls are known as untznius,"

That quote is taken out of context, but a horrible article none the less IMHO.

[Cbs]

That quote is taken out of context,

i guess it wasnt clear but i was trying to direct 2 issues. the quote (which i never saw written b4) and the link

but a horrible article none the less IMHO.

+1

looking through the site now, i see that its one big disaster...

[mclovin]

the quote (which i never saw written b4)

i actually saw an article from national geographic a few years ago that pretty much said that (in different words). from what i recall i dont think it was comparing them to other (jewish) girls though.

[YitzyS]

It has recently been uncovered that there are significantly more boys born each year in Lakewood than girls. Since 1990, the birthrate of boys has exceeded the birthrate of girls every year besides 1995 and 1997.

In the last 10 years, an average of 127 more boys were born each year than girls.

The data is based on the white, non-Hispanic residents of Lakewood, which is primarily made up of frum Jews. (and seniors, but they are usually not contributing to the birthrate).

You can see the data here, but you have to fill in the information. Select "all years" and "all sexes", check off white non-Hispanic, and check off Lakewood. Then check off by "display data" that the first thing should be year and the second sex, and choose a vertical bar graph.
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/query/builder/birth/BirthBirthCnty/Count.html



This finding was first made public by Shlomo Schorr, and there is a piece on Lakewood Scoop about it.

[S209]

It has recently been uncovered that there are significantly more boys born each year in Lakewood than girls. Since 1990, the birthrate of boys has exceeded the birthrate of girls every year besides 1995 and 1997.

In the last 10 years, an average of 127 more boys were born each year than girls.

The data is based on the white, non-Hispanic residents of Lakewood, which is primarily made up of frum Jews. (and seniors, but they are usually not contributing to the birthrate).

You can see the data here, but you have to fill in the information. Select "all years" and "all sexes", check off white non-Hispanic, and check off Lakewood. Then check off by "display data" that the first thing should be year and the second sex, and choose a vertical bar graph.
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/query/builder/birth/BirthBirthCnty/Count.html



This finding was first made public by Shlomo Schorr, and there is a piece on Lakewood Scoop about it.

Is this different than the national/international average? I believe boys are born at a higher rate than girls everywhere.

[Euclid]

It has recently been uncovered that there are significantly more boys born each year in Lakewood than girls. Since 1990, the birthrate of boys has exceeded the birthrate of girls every year besides 1995 and 1997.

In the last 10 years, an average of 127 more boys were born each year than girls.

The data is based on the white, non-Hispanic residents of Lakewood, which is primarily made up of frum Jews. (and seniors, but they are usually not contributing to the birthrate).

You can see the data here, but you have to fill in the information. Select "all years" and "all sexes", check off white non-Hispanic, and check off Lakewood. Then check off by "display data" that the first thing should be year and the second sex, and choose a vertical bar graph.
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/query/builder/birth/BirthBirthCnty/Count.html



This finding was first made public by Shlomo Schorr, and there is a piece on Lakewood Scoop about it.

There are still more girls being born than boys 4 years earlier.

[CountValentine]

Is this different than the national/international average? I believe boys are born at a higher rate than girls everywhere.

https://ourworldindata.org/gender-ratio#:~:text=There%20are%20biological%20reasons%20why%20there%20are%20slightly,is%20much%20more%20skewed%20than%20would%20occur%20naturally.
The sex ratio at birth is not equal: in every country births are male-biased. There are biological reasons why there are slightly more boys born every year than girls. The ‘natural’ sex ratio at birth is around 105 boys per 100 girls (ranging from around 103 to 107 boys).

[S209]

https://ourworldindata.org/gender-ratio#:~:text=There%20are%20biological%20reasons%20why%20there%20are%20slightly,is%20much%20more%20skewed%20than%20would%20occur%20naturally.
The sex ratio at birth is not equal: in every country births are male-biased. There are biological reasons why there are slightly more boys born every year than girls. The ‘natural’ sex ratio at birth is around 105 boys per 100 girls (ranging from around 103 to 107 boys).

Seems to be just about the same ratio as Lakewood. So this data doesn’t appear to be meaningful at all.

[YitzyS]

Seems to be just about the same ratio as Lakewood. So this data doesn’t appear to be meaningful at all.

It's something that those in the "Shidduch Crisis business" don't tell us. What happens in the rest of the world has no baring on this conversation. If there are substantially more boys born each year, than there is no need to have boys and girls getting married at the same age. Yes, maybe 4 years of a discrepancy is too much, but it doesn't have to be the same age.

So yes, the data is very meaningful. Perhaps it's just not new.

[Dawie]

Seems to be just about the same ratio as Lakewood. So this data doesn’t appear to be meaningful at all.

apparently Lakewood ratio is a drop higher something like 107-100 instead of 105-100

[Columbia Alum]

It's something that those in the "Shidduch Crisis business" don't tell us.

This!

The Age Gap Theory is nonsense.

Not in the sense that it cannot be true or isn't necessarily something to be concerned about, but in the sense that it's promoters are advocating that it is THE cause based on "mathematics" and shlepping in chashuve Roshei Yeshiva and Rabbonim on that basis.

Their math is all fuzzy handwaving and back of the envelope calculations, and efforts on my part and on the part of others with similar backgrounds in statistics (and actuarial science) to address these issues have been met with condescension, obfuscation, and ridicule.

At this point I refuse to engage with any of their promoters even when asked, it invariably ends with their trying to "explain" to me how I don't understand the math.

[AsherO]

apparently Lakewood ratio is a drop higher something like 107-100 instead of 105-100

Can't OORAH just shift their focus a bit towards outreach for girls? Crisis solved.

[joe1234]

It has recently been uncovered that there are significantly more boys born each year in Lakewood than girls. Since 1990, the birthrate of boys has exceeded the birthrate of girls every year besides 1995 and 1997.

In the last 10 years, an average of 127 more boys were born each year than girls.

The data is based on the white, non-Hispanic residents of Lakewood, which is primarily made up of frum Jews. (and seniors, but they are usually not contributing to the birthrate).

You can see the data here, but you have to fill in the information. Select "all years" and "all sexes", check off white non-Hispanic, and check off Lakewood. Then check off by "display data" that the first thing should be year and the second sex, and choose a vertical bar graph.
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/query/builder/birth/BirthBirthCnty/Count.html



This finding was first made public by Shlomo Schorr, and there is a piece on Lakewood Scoop about it.

we still dont know the exact numbers amongst frum jews...a slight ratio difference may change things alot...
after getting the exact numbers we can start looking at the number increase at girls who are 4 years younger to see the exact discrepency. even then there are other things to factor in including kids going off the derech etc..(more girls or boys).
i suspect its nearly impossible to calculate every factor, and with the numbers being at a difference of around 100 range, i would trust hashem that other factors(including more boys born) take care of it.

[shwarmabob]

more boys go OTD than girls so that may "solve" the issue

[momo]

more boys go OTD than girls so that may "solve" the issue

Also who said that they are boys? They still have time to decide what they are.

[AsherO]

Also who said that they are boys? They still have time to decide what they are.

They still had male as "sex assigned at birth" which is what the chart above uses. Once they're trans they aren't relevant to anything shidduch-related anyway.

[aygart]

The fact that the boys generally get married a few years older than the girls seems like a valid explanation to me...
(I saw a blog post once were someone did the math, I don't remember what it was but it seemed to make sense at the time)

Meh, there are more boys than girls born.
Though the concept is that every year there are more kids being born due to population growth. Therefor if the girls from 1995 start dating now and the boys from 1992 there will be a slight discrepancy.

Speak to a demographer and see if they agree with this calculation. There are many factors involved. For that matter, see if they agree that there is an issue in the first place. The whole issue is ONLY anecdotal.

A demographer once told me that he is very unconvinced that there is a shidduch crisis at all. Assuming there is he is even less convinced that it has anything to with the age gap. He then gave a lengthy explanation why.

Amazing how the organizations pushing various solutions have never addressed any of this information that has been around for the longest time.

[cholent]

Amazing how the organizations pushing various solutions have never addressed any of this information that has been around for the longest time.

True - but I'm also amazed that anyone can say with a straight face that they're not convinced there's a shidduch crisis at all

[as2]

Amazing how the organizations pushing various solutions have never addressed any of this information that has been around for the longest time.

We live in a world where we learn to live with problems and accept them, rather than fix them.