Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis

[aygart]

True - but I'm also amazed that anyone can say with a straight face that they're not convinced there's a shidduch crisis at all

It may depend on how you define crisis. If it is mainly due to personal choices then it is hard to call it a crisis in the demographic sense and even harder to fix. Also, that conversation was more than 10 years ago.

[S209]

It's something that those in the "Shidduch Crisis business" don't tell us. What happens in the rest of the world has no baring on this conversation. If there are substantially more boys born each year, than there is no need to have boys and girls getting married at the same age. Yes, maybe 4 years of a discrepancy is too much, but it doesn't have to be the same age.

So yes, the data is very meaningful. Perhaps it's just not new.

The information was presented on TLS as “Hashem showing us a way out of the Shidduch crisis without doing hishtadlus!” which is ludicrous. This is generic information that’s always been true in any population.

The shidduch crisis solutions/explainers have always been predicated on a fact: there is a visible shidduch crisis because there are many more single girls in shidduchim than single boys in shidduchim. There are also more older single girls, and (the natural progression is) it’s easier for boys to get redt/ get a yes/ get married than girls. Faced with this information, organizations/activists have proposed a rationale for fixing/adjusting this: closing the age gap somewhat, thus reducing the impact natural growth has in exacerbating the crisis, which seems reasonable.

The chart gives us no helpful information whatsoever, other than maybe that a select few girls can marry someone slightly older. But [the organizations/activists propose] the age gap still needs to be somewhat lowered, as R’ Elya Ber said at the Agudah convention. And I don’t recall anyone ever saying we all need to marry girls exactly our age or older (which is what we would need to make the calculations perfect), only that bochurim should start somewhat earlier/girls somewhat later.

[justaregularguy]

From the graph it looks like theres a much smaller disparity between boys and girls in the 90’- 00’ years. And thats around the age that’s dating now. So does that mean it will likely get much worse in about 10 years?

[cmey]

It may depend on how you define crisis. If it is mainly due to personal choices then it is hard to call it a crisis in the demographic sense and even harder to fix. Also, that conversation was more than 10 years ago.

Did you listen to Lewenstein at the Agudah convention? He see plenty of girls who are 21 normal, from good homes who are looking for a regular run of the mill boy who haven’t gotten a single “yes” in their lives, let alone gone on a date. He almost never has a regular boy who can’t get an immediate date. But it doesn’t need a speech at the Agudah convention and the shocking statistics of unmarried girls by age group that was presented. I know of multiple girls in their low 20’s who haven’t gotten a date. Anyone who thinks there isn’t a crisis is either blind or doesn’t care or isn’t interested in what is going on by his neighbors.

I’m sorry to be so blunt and harsh but there is a huge segment in klal yisrael that is in pain and is going through gehenom with no end in sight and it is so painful to still see people in denial.

[justaregularguy]

Did you listen to Lewenstein at the Agudah convention. He see plenty of girls who are 21 normal, from good homes who are looking for a regular run of the mill boy who haven’t gotten a single “yes” in their lives, let alone gone on a date. He almost never has a regular boy who can’t get an immediate date. I know of multiple girls in their low 20’s who haven’t gotten a date. Anyone who thinks there isn’t a crisis is either blind or doesn’t care or isn’t interested in what is going on by his neighbors.

I’m sorry to be so blunt and harsh but there is a huge segment in klal yisrael that is in pain and is going through gehenom with no end in sight and it is so painful to still see people in denial.

for every boy that goes on a date there’s a girl that also does. How does that add up that guys get more dates or something?

[S209]

For comparison, here are the numbers for all of Ocean County (the dates on bottom are the same, it’s just blurred for some reason).

[S209]

for every boy that goes on a date there’s a girl that also does. How does that add up that guys get more dates or something?

But if there is a larger pool of girls than guys then even if every guy dates a girl there are still plenty of “leftover” (nebach) girls…

[lcm]

The numbers that need to be looked from these charts at are,
 the guys from one year, and the girls from a few years later.

[justaregularguy]

But if there is a larger pool of girls than guys then even if every guy dates a girl there are still plenty of “leftover” (nebach) girls…

so why is there a larger pool of girls in the first place? bc thats just how theyre born acc to this chart. so nothing really to do w a shidduch crisis we cud do anything about?

[cmey]

so why is there a larger pool of girls in the first place? bc thats just how theyre born acc to this chart. so nothing really to do w a shidduch crisis we cud do anything about?

Look at the chart again. There are more boys than girls born each year. But there are so many more kids being born each year that the girls born 3-4 years after the boys (the age gap by Shidduchim) are a much larger pool than the boys they will be dating. Other frum groups that have a 1-2 year age gap such as Europe and Israeli Litvish have no Shidduch crisis. The chassidim who date girls equal or slightly older have a boy Shidduch crisis to some degree.

(Historically from  what I understand there were at least three factors that figured in places where there was a large age gap. 1) Men married multiple wives before cherem dirabeinu Gershom, leveling the numbers. 2) many women died young in childbirth; often their single sisters would take their place 3) mostly poor girls without dowrys and the like would stay single as was common in the times of Tosfos and much of Europe

#1 and 2 are no longer factors.

[YitzyS]

I'm also amazed that anyone can say with a straight face that they're not convinced there's a shidduch crisis at all

I've heard this from gedolim (a few years ago)

[S209]

I've heard this from gedolim (a few years ago)

Can you name any of them? Do they claim all shadchanim are lying? Are our eyes lying?

[ExGingi]

I've heard this from gedolim (a few years ago)

As @aygart pointed out, there might be a crisis, but it isn't due to the mathematics of the demographics.

It may depend on how you define crisis. If it is mainly due to personal choices then it is hard to call it a crisis in the demographic sense and even harder to fix. Also, that conversation was more than 10 years ago.

[YitzyS]

Can you name any of them? Do they claim all shadchanim are lying? Are our eyes lying?

Note: I was referring directly to cholent's quote, "they're not convinced there's a shidduch crisis at all." Not that there is definitely no shidduch crisis.

IIRC, I've heard doubts that there is a shidduch crisis from a few prominent people. Here is a question/answer from Rav Yehuda Jacobs from about four years ago.

Q: Is there a Shidduch crisis? If indeed there is, what should we do about it?
A: Is there a shidduch crisis? You really have to ask someone older than me, as I am not really a maven on this.
I do know that there are plenty of older girls, but there are plenty of older boys too. Additionally, many years ago as well, there were plenty of older girls and boys.
However, I do not know what difference it makes even if there is a crisis. Are we going to lower the age for people to enter the shidduch scene?
Who knows if people at that age are responsible enough for marriage?
These things have to be calculated. It is impossible to say one solution across the board.

[cmey]

Note: I was referring directly to cholent's quote, "they're not convinced there's a shidduch crisis at all." Not that there is definitely no shidduch crisis.

IIRC, I've heard doubts that there is a shidduch crisis from a few prominent people. Here is a question/answer from Rav Yehuda Jacobs from about four years ago.

The number of children born increases exponentially. The number of girls born in Lakewood who came of age four years ago has almost doubled today. It’s much harder to be oblivious to it today. Rav Elya Ber was very emphatic about it being an age gap issue but then again he sent his bochurim to E”Y a year early several years ago. Is there any daas torah today who still is not convinced?

[S209]

Note: I was referring directly to cholent's quote, "they're not convinced there's a shidduch crisis at all." Not that there is definitely no shidduch crisis.

Do they claim all shadchanim are lying? Are our eyes lying?

[YitzyS]

He explained his reasoning. And about shadchanim lying,

[S209]

IIRC, I've heard doubts that there is a shidduch crisis from a few prominent people. Here is a question/answer from Rav Yehuda Jacobs from about four years ago.

He appears to be saying he’s not an expert in it so he doesn’t know if it does or doesn’t. Furthermore, saying one does not know what the solution is should have no bearing on recognizing whether a problem exists or not.

It’s astounding that he didn’t see it clearly four years ago. Today? It’s exponentially worse. Ask any shadchan, who I think R’ Jacobs Ztzl would call a “maven”. Shloimy Lewinstein and Tzodek Katz come to mind as people who have stressed how bad it is at various times.

[S209]

He explained his reasoning. And about shadchanim lying,

I didn’t see an explanation. There are also plenty of boys? Sure, that isn’t an answer though. Twenty boys and a thousand girls is plenty of each. But still a crisis.

[YitzyS]

He appears to be saying he’s not an expert in it so he doesn’t know if it does or doesn’t. Furthermore, saying one does not know what the solution is should have no bearing on recognizing whether a problem exists or not.

It’s astounding that he didn’t see it clearly four years ago. Today? It’s exponentially worse. Ask any shadchan, who I think R’ Jacobs Ztzl would call a “maven”. Shloimy Lewinstein and Tzodek Katz come to mind as people who have stressed how bad it is at various times.

I have no intention to get mixed in. I'm just saying that I've heard from gedolim who were not convinced about the shidduch crisis. I've heard it also from someone else, but I can't remember offhand who it was.