Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis

[yuneeq]

In any event, it seems to me that the numbers graduating high school would be more useful and shouldn't be that hard to come by.

I didn’t graduate along with others in my class. Might be better to use high school entrants or possibly get stats from Dor Yesharim - do they go to every school?

[avromie7]

I didn’t graduate along with others in my class. Might be better to use high school entrants or possibly get stats from Dor Yesharim - do they go to every school?

Girls yes, boys no.

[EliJelly]

Keep parents out of shidduchim...

By the chassidim shidduchim is still pretty much arranged by the parents and yet there is no crisis there.

[as2]

By the chassidim shidduchim is still pretty much arranged by the parents and yet there is no crisis there.

My point wasn't specifically about the crisis. I was making a general statement.

[jye]

I don’t think you need to be a statistician. Basic math should suffice. You are forgetting the cumulative effect. (Calculating this on the fly so correct me if my math is off.)

Let’s take Lakewood births and do the math. Let’s assume we are starting from a clean slate and that every single boy makes it through the system and marries one of the girls.

If we take the girls from 1998 and the boys from 1995 (the 3 year age gap), after every girl gets married there are 75 who don’t have any boys for them (526-451=75)

For the 1999 cohort it is 59 extra (590-531) PLUS the 75 girls from the previous year.

The 2000 cohort is an additional 139.

2001 yields an additional 145.

2002 girls cohort yields an additional 216.

By 2003 not only are there an excess 282 girls (922-640=292), there are still 634 girls left over from previous years so there are actually 1.556 girls vying for only 640 boys. ( In the chassidish world boys marry girls older than them, it’s only the Litvish where boys have their pick that it’s rare.)

And Lakewood of the 1990’s accounted for only a fraction of the frum population. Multiply the numbers times 10 and you get an idea of the magnitude of the problem. 15,000 girls vying for 6400 boys. The only way you are getting a date in that kind of environment is if you somehow stand out. Money. Yichus. Parents went to the same bungalow colony. Chance encounters. Etc. a perfectly average girl with nothing to differentiate herself is likely going to find herself being relegated to the thousands of excess girls. Is it any wonder that thousands of girls aren’t getting dates?

And this model is actually far more rosy than things are in actuality because it starts with a clean slate, ignoring the cumulative pile of unmarried girls already in the mix from previous years. And we are assuming a perfect world where every boys is marriage material and actually gets married to one of the girls in the pool. Any additional boys that are unmarriagable due to falling through the system etc. only takes what is already a calamity and adds to it.

It’s pretty astounding that the math predicts that a 3-4 year age gap will result in a shidduch crisis for girls, the crisis appears to match the predicted numbers, yet there are pages of comments all focusing on their pet peeve as the cause, whether it’s the working boys, the kollel system, picky girls, etc. etc.

How about first refuting the math and then trying to to pin the crisis on your pet peeve?

Imagine if there was a 30% increase in the mortality rate among young men, and there was a corresponding statistic of a 30% rise in homicides involving youno male victims, but everyone starts coting drug OD’s, suicides, covid vaccines, not taking the vaccine etc. as the cause.

Are we really that bad at math and logic? I thought klal yisrael was supposed to be the עם נבון וחכם.

[EliJelly]

My point wasn't specifically about the crisis. I was making a general statement.

How can a 19 year old be trusted to choose a girl that his late grand bubby wouldn't be ashamed to become a Mechutanista with her late grand bubby??

[David61]

I don’t think you need to be a statistician. Basic math should suffice.

Apparently you DO need a statistician to point out that Lakewood's population growth is not representative of the overall frum community because family size is above average relative to other large frum communities and because of a net influx of families moving in over this period due to affordable housing etc...

[yuneeq]

Girls yes, boys no.

So you’re saying Dor Yesharim invented the shidduch crises?

/s

[lcm]

Can we get a wiki of all the proposed issues and all the proposed solutions?

[yelped]

It’s pretty astounding that the math predicts that a 3-4 year age gap will result in a shidduch crisis for girls, the crisis appears to match the predicted numbers, yet there are pages of comments all focusing on their pet peeve as the cause, whether it’s the working boys, the kollel system, picky girls, etc. etc.

How about first refuting the math and then trying to to pin the crisis on your pet peeve?

Imagine if there was a 30% increase in the mortality rate among young men, and there was a corresponding statistic of a 30% rise in homicides involving youno male victims, but everyone starts coting drug OD’s, suicides, covid vaccines, not taking the vaccine etc. as the cause.

Are we really that bad at math and logic? I thought klal yisrael was supposed to be the עם נבון וחכם.

Because the math only shows the symptoms, not the cause, imo. If boys would marry their age because they don't have ridiculous expectations caused by the this whole "top" system, this would not be an issue.

[YitzyS]

https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2021/12/a-response-more-baby-boys-than-baby-girls-everywhere-and-always-dr-michelle-shain.html

[Dawie]

Because the math only shows the symptoms, not the cause, imo. If boys would marry their age because they don't have ridiculous expectations caused by the this whole "top" system, this would not be an issue.

The boys aren't being redt to their age and the 23 year old girl is not interested in the 23 year old noob guy

[YitzyS]

The boys aren't being redt to their age and the 23 year old girl is not interested in the 23 year old noob guy

I can vouch for at least one shidduch of 23-year-olds... 

[as2]

I'm not sure why we have a system that seems to dictate who does what. Be it a shadchen, parents, etc. My wife is ~6 month age difference from me, and we got married at 19/20. That's what worked for me. Why don't people do what actually works for them as opposed to following like sheep? I tend to think that, both parents and shadchanim can have very negative effects on getting someone married, but we chalk it up to being "the system".

[ckmk47]

I think parents have to look at who their child is.  And customize the plan to them.
The timing, who they look for, where they look.


For many who's parents just do the 'system' rote, it works.  But when parents are looking for someone who doesn't fit their kid....

[yos9694]

Everyone IS doing what works for them, we can assume. But the agudah has never stopped supporting this theory, even though data experts have never endorsed it. Liking this theory is understandable (very) but it just doesn't hold water if we're looking for root causes or solutions unfortunately.

[S209]

Apparently you DO need a statistician to point out that Lakewood's population growth is not representative of the overall frum community because family size is above average relative to other large frum communities

If Lakewood type people are marrying Lakewood type people then this is irrelevant, as presumably type dictates family size as opposed to location.

[avromie7]

If Lakewood type people are marrying Lakewood type people then this is irrelevant, as presumably type dictates family size as opposed to location.

I think you're joining too many people under 1 definition, many many lakewood people will marry into families that don't fit the lakewood definition. To assume everyone in lakewood marries into a family that fits that description is just silly.

[CountValentine]

I tend to think that, both parents and shadchanim can have very negative effects on getting someone married, but we chalk it up to being "the system".

Nothing to do with the system. It is like that everywhere.
People stinking their nose where it doesn't belong. 

[as2]

Nothing to do with the system. It is like that everywhere.
People stinking their nose where it doesn't belong. 

Within our communities, there is a bit of a "system" and it has it's positive and negative impacts.


Overall though, you are most definitely right.