Author Topic: Stock Pick Master Thread  (Read 24809 times)

Offline U-no-me!

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #90 on: February 02, 2013, 09:07:28 PM »
That's interesting. Because as of now, there is nothing much to get excited about. They haven't pulled in a profit in years, and their assets are shrinking. They still give a dividend without making any money. The stock price shot up, so nowadays they aren't worth even the assets in case of bankruptcy. I'll move along.
Your analysis is seriously flawed on many level. To list a few: Assets are shrinking!?!? you mean with the recent acquistion of I think it was 28 properties from the highland portofolio?
They actually just raised the dividend, so you are actually getting a good bang for your buck at 5%.

Errrr... I'ts actually trading below book. Remember GGP and Bill Ackman?! Where did you calculate you asset value?

And BTW when it was at $1 (when I bough it) people were also wary about it, the pro's bought.
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Offline HelpMe

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #91 on: February 02, 2013, 10:12:12 PM »
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  :)
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Offline mordy44

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #92 on: February 02, 2013, 10:39:44 PM »
I think AAPL is a bargain.

Anyone here going to take the risk with RIMM? so risky. Does anyone actually have any interest in the Z-10?

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #93 on: February 03, 2013, 12:37:32 AM »
Your analysis is seriously flawed on many level. To list a few: Assets are shrinking!?!? you mean with the recent acquistion of I think it was 28 properties from the highland portofolio?
They actually just raised the dividend, so you are actually getting a good bang for your buck at 5%.

Errrr... I'ts actually trading below book. Remember GGP and Bill Ackman?! Where did you calculate you asset value?

And BTW when it was at $1 (when I bough it) people were also wary about it, the pro's bought.

I haven't been keeping up with the day to day of the stock, I never even heard of it til last night.

When I said assets are shrinking, that is, look at the total assets and total equity for the end of each quarter or year, and you'll see the number moving in the wrong direction. Its at around 800 million right now which is just around market value. When market value was half the amount (stock price was lower) it may have been worth it then.

By the way, total equity will shrink even if you buy ten billion properties, because in order t buy assets you need to give up other assets (cash) or assume more debt (liabilities). Losing cash and adding debt are both bad signs for a company.

They also haven't made profit in forever, which also is fundamentally not a good sign.

CMIIW, but in the quick look over, it is hard to see anything special about this company. There are hundreds just like it, at better prices too.

Offline Shmelly

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #94 on: February 03, 2013, 12:58:53 AM »
I'll give one stock to hold long (5+ years) and 1 as a shorter term position (>2 years)

Long: MO. Perfect mix to be a compounder's dream with one of the best yields of any conventional vehicle, stable share price, very liquid. Essentially a conservative way to pull in 6%+ annual interest. Excellent management team in place. The constant overhang of lawsuits creates a relatively low valuation (ie the lawsuits are priced in already). They have a huge branding advantage due to their market share.

And don't underestimate the marijuana factor. You don't think they're ready to step in as soon as it gets legalized and dominate that multi billion dollar industry? They already own over 50% of the smokless market and big stakes in alcohol - they've cornered the market on anything addictive. I've owned in for nearly a year now and seen a 30%+ return. (If you want more growth potential PM was spun off and holds all sales outside the US.)

Shorter term play: SIRI. Their FCF is exploding this year, and the ever present buyout from Liberty should give the stock support. They have a monopoly in the satellite radio space. While that doesn't mean much due to the ever growing digital media market, it has driven down content costs by many factors. Also since they no longer compete against XM all their deals with automakers are now on more favorable terms.

They own bandwidth which is always valuable, they have very low fixed costs, and can now maintain their debt load. They have had 3 debt ratings increases just this year and are only a step below investment grade. Also barrier to entry for a SIRI streaming service is nonexistent. They can instantly fire up unsubscribed radios with preview channels. They even hinted at lighting up radios with perhaps 10 ad-supported channels.

In the end its all about content. They have the exclusive content that others do not, and its all wrapped into one service. The stock is obviously more of a risk then MO, but with that explosion of cash they will have plenty of options available for shareholders. The only reason I think its a short term play is because its a technology which could theoretically be obsolete in 2 years.

Thanks for this bump and the opportunity to toot my own horn.

MO is up another 14% since this post, and reached as high as up 21%. And of course, it continues to pay one of the healthiest dividends around.

SIRI is up 42% since this post and is currently at its 5 year high.
You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose. - Dr. Seuss

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #95 on: February 03, 2013, 01:04:08 AM »
Thanks for this bump and the opportunity to toot my own horn.

I'll give extra props if you actually own those stocks.

Any recent stocks you've noticed at a cheap valuation?

Offline HelpMe

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #96 on: February 03, 2013, 01:15:47 AM »
If your picks are down in this market you need to be flipping burgers!  :P
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #97 on: February 03, 2013, 01:26:47 AM »
If your picks are down in this market you need to be flipping burgers!  :P

Mine ain't down, they're all up. Gonna cash out of some of them soon, so I hope to find something that's not just a load of hype.

Offline HelpMe

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #98 on: February 03, 2013, 01:42:19 AM »
Mine ain't down, they're all up. Gonna cash out of some of them soon, so I hope to find something that's not just a load of hype.
LINE
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Online good sam

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #99 on: March 13, 2013, 04:13:30 PM »
Wow, anyone in/following BBRY?
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Offline Yeki89

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #100 on: March 13, 2013, 04:21:01 PM »
all time low

Online good sam

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #101 on: March 13, 2013, 04:22:50 PM »
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Offline Steven

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #102 on: April 04, 2013, 11:27:42 AM »
I think AAPL is a bargain.

Anyone here going to take the risk with RIMM? so risky. Does anyone actually have any interest in the Z-10?
anyone think now is a good time to buy AAPL? how much lower will it go before it settles? I have a little bit for a while and I am thinking of doubling down to recoup some of my loses..

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #103 on: April 04, 2013, 11:35:25 AM »
anyone think now is a good time to buy AAPL? how much lower will it go before it settles? I have a little bit for a while and I am thinking of doubling down to recoup some of my loses..

Wait for the market to correct a lil more.

Offline Steven

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #104 on: April 04, 2013, 11:57:48 AM »
Wait for the market to correct a lil more.
im thinking when the market corrects a little bit, apple will be going up a little. people are dumping it to pick up the hot picks