Author Topic: Stock Pick Master Thread  (Read 22113 times)

Offline Shmelly

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #60 on: March 19, 2012, 03:22:38 PM »
I'll give one stock to hold long (5+ years) and 1 as a shorter term position (>2 years)

Long: MO. Perfect mix to be a compounder's dream with one of the best yields of any conventional vehicle, stable share price, very liquid. Essentially a conservative way to pull in 6%+ annual interest. Excellent management team in place. The constant overhang of lawsuits creates a relatively low valuation (ie the lawsuits are priced in already). They have a huge branding advantage due to their market share.

And don't underestimate the marijuana factor. You don't think they're ready to step in as soon as it gets legalized and dominate that multi billion dollar industry? They already own over 50% of the smokless market and big stakes in alcohol - they've cornered the market on anything addictive. I've owned in for nearly a year now and seen a 30%+ return. (If you want more growth potential PM was spun off and holds all sales outside the US.)

Shorter term play: SIRI. Their FCF is exploding this year, and the ever present buyout from Liberty should give the stock support. They have a monopoly in the satellite radio space. While that doesn't mean much due to the ever growing digital media market, it has driven down content costs by many factors. Also since they no longer compete against XM all their deals with automakers are now on more favorable terms.

They own bandwidth which is always valuable, they have very low fixed costs, and can now maintain their debt load. They have had 3 debt ratings increases just this year and are only a step below investment grade. Also barrier to entry for a SIRI streaming service is nonexistent. They can instantly fire up unsubscribed radios with preview channels. They even hinted at lighting up radios with perhaps 10 ad-supported channels.

In the end its all about content. They have the exclusive content that others do not, and its all wrapped into one service. The stock is obviously more of a risk then MO, but with that explosion of cash they will have plenty of options available for shareholders. The only reason I think its a short term play is because its a technology which could theoretically be obsolete in 2 years.
You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose. - Dr. Seuss

Offline AsherO

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #61 on: March 19, 2012, 06:02:19 PM »
They have to much money?

Waaay too much cash reported. I'm still convinced it's a ponzi scheme ;)
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Offline SPLP

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #62 on: March 19, 2012, 06:26:29 PM »
Waaay too much cash reported. I'm still convinced it's a ponzi scheme ;)

ENRON!

Offline HelpMe

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #63 on: March 19, 2012, 06:50:27 PM »
Waaay too much cash reported. I'm still convinced it's a ponzi scheme ;)
Wasn't MSFT basically in the same position back in 2004 (year could be off)?
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Offline YudiG

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #64 on: March 19, 2012, 06:52:26 PM »
Wasn't MSFT basically in the same position back in 2004 (year could be off)?

Sure they issued a one time $3 per share dividend and the stock did nothing though recently it surged big...

Offline AsherO

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #65 on: March 19, 2012, 08:04:40 PM »
Wasn't MSFT basically in the same position back in 2004 (year could be off)?

It was 2004, they had $56B. Apple has $97B+ (nearly double) and their cash flow gains are rising each year.
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Offline YudiG

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #66 on: March 19, 2012, 08:10:58 PM »
It was 2004, they had $56B. Apple has $97B+ (nearly double) and their cash flow gains are rising each year.

+1

Offline smart brit

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #67 on: March 19, 2012, 08:42:03 PM »
i would not be a buyer of aapl at these prices it should come down a little soon to 500 where i would happily buy more

Offline good sam

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #68 on: March 21, 2012, 01:28:50 PM »
i would not be a buyer of aapl at these prices it should come down a little soon to 500 where i would happily buy more
When it hits $700, you'll wait for it to come down to $600. (i'm long, obviously)
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Offline good sam

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #69 on: May 17, 2012, 01:52:36 PM »
i would not be a buyer of aapl at these prices it should come down a little soon to 500 where i would happily buy more
you getting ready to buy?
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Offline smart brit

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #70 on: May 17, 2012, 02:39:05 PM »
you getting ready to buy?
Not yet but have moved them  the front of my screen watching them closely

Offline Mikeoracle

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #71 on: July 19, 2012, 12:21:03 PM »
BCLI

I started looking into this stock after all the news articles in the local Jewish weeklys about R' Shmulevitz.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/upcoming-key-clinical-data-catalyst-174201443.html

Anyone watching this one?

Online jj1000

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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #72 on: July 19, 2012, 12:28:40 PM »
i would not be a buyer of aapl at these prices it should come down a little soon to 500 where i would happily buy more
A friend of mine got $10K by his bar mitzva. His dad invested it in aapl for him. He just sold the stocks for $110K :)
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Offline sky121

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Re: Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #73 on: July 19, 2012, 12:29:57 PM »
A friend of mine got $10K by his bar mitzva. His dad invested it in aapl for him. He just sold the stocks for $110K :)

That's a great story!
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Re: Stock Pick Master Thread
« Reply #74 on: July 19, 2012, 12:32:45 PM »
That's a great story!
Yup! He's actually a ddf member but hasn't been on in a while. Anyway so with that money he bought 2 houses so far, (got to love the real estate market in pittsburgh now adays) and both houses are rented out for a nice profit.
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