Author Topic: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?  (Read 25686 times)

Offline HelpMe

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2012, 08:20:35 AM »
Would you trust me?
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Offline AJK

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2012, 09:43:21 AM »
He would post the numbers.

+1, or better yet, he would take a picture of each ticket and post it on DDF (or whereever).
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Offline WhyAich

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So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #42 on: March 29, 2012, 09:52:16 AM »
Just waisted my dollar ;)
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Offline AJK

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #43 on: March 29, 2012, 09:54:17 AM »
Just waisted my dollar ;)

Would you sell it to me for 50 cents?
2015: 116K bkd | 1.6M brnd | F: OZ,NH,AA,EK | J: UA,CA,TK,DL,TN,AF,VA | LIH,NRT,ROR,PEK,CNS,BOB,MEL,TLV & Pacific Hopper

Offline real-brisker

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #44 on: March 29, 2012, 11:36:01 AM »
However the more people that buy the bigger the chance that 2 tickets will have the same number, and then the prize is split

I think the last time the lotto was this near big it was won by 2 people
I disagree. Look at this past weeks, no one won, and there were more buyers than usual. And you can find the opposite as well, you can have more than one winner when the pot is much smaller.

Offline jj1000

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #45 on: March 29, 2012, 11:37:56 AM »
I disagree. Look at this past weeks, no one won, and there were more buyers than usual. And you can find the opposite as well, you can have more than one winner when the pot is much smaller.
wow.
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Offline AJK

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #46 on: March 29, 2012, 11:38:11 AM »
I disagree. Look at this past weeks, no one won, and there were more buyers than usual. And you can find the opposite as well, you can have more than one winner when the pot is much smaller.

Well, then you'd be wrong :P

Statistically, the more people that buy, the higher the odds a number of people will pick the same number.
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #47 on: March 29, 2012, 12:03:40 PM »
You can fairly easily figure out the expected value of a ticket at any given point based on the jackpot and the number of tickets in play for a particular drawing. But even if it comes out to more than a dollar, the variance is way to high to make it attractive to most people who've thought it through. You can reduce the variance (maintaining the same expected value) by buying a large amount of tickets, especially with a group, but you're still not going to get it down to the level of almost any other non-lottery gambling opportunity.

Offline HelpMe

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #48 on: March 29, 2012, 12:06:12 PM »
You can fairly easily figure out the expected value of a ticket at any given point based on the jackpot and the number of tickets in play for a particular drawing. But even if it comes out to more than a dollar, the variance is way to high to make it attractive to most people who've thought it through. You can reduce the variance (maintaining the same expected value) by buying a large amount of tickets, especially with a group, but you're still not going to get it down to the level of almost any other non-lottery gambling opportunity.
What if someone could buy every combination?
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Offline AJK

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #49 on: March 29, 2012, 12:06:54 PM »
You can fairly easily figure out the expected value of a ticket at any given point based on the jackpot and the number of tickets in play for a particular drawing. But even if it comes out to more than a dollar, the variance is way to high to make it attractive to most people who've thought it through. You can reduce the variance (maintaining the same expected value) by buying a large amount of tickets, especially with a group, but you're still not going to get it down to the level of almost any other non-lottery gambling opportunity.

Here's a stat: you can't win if you don't buy.

Gotta do your hishtadlus ;)
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Offline good sam

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #50 on: March 29, 2012, 12:07:29 PM »
You can fairly easily figure out the expected value of a ticket at any given point based on the jackpot and the number of tickets in play for a particular drawing. But even if it comes out to more than a dollar, the variance is way to high to make it attractive to most people who've thought it through. You can reduce the variance (maintaining the same expected value) by buying a large amount of tickets, especially with a group, but you're still not going to get it down to the level of almost any other non-lottery gambling opportunity.
You should become an actuary  ;)
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Offline good sam

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #51 on: March 29, 2012, 12:08:06 PM »
I disagree. Look at this past weeks, no one won, and there were more buyers than usual. And you can find the opposite as well, you can have more than one winner when the pot is much smaller.
In brisk, they would be ashamed of this svara.
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Offline MarkS

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #52 on: March 29, 2012, 12:09:58 PM »
What if someone could buy every combination?
Supposedly the odds of winning with 1 ticket are 1 in 175,711,536.

Try buying every combination for $175,711,536

It would suck though if you have to split the pot!

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/mega-millions-strategies-chance-leading-jackpot/story?id=16020106#.T3SJajFmIk0

Offline skyguy918

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #53 on: March 29, 2012, 12:26:37 PM »
You should become an actuary  ;)

There's a group doing a pretty big pool of tickets among the actuarial students (ie haven't finished alll exams yet) where I work. They were trying to get my colleague to go in, and it sparked a whole discussion on whether it's a positive expected payout or not. As my colleague is sitting there analyzing the whole thing everyone else is yelling at him, stop thinking about it so much, you're ruining it. I guess we know who the real actuaries are ;)

Offline HelpMe

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #54 on: March 29, 2012, 12:32:39 PM »
There's a group doing a pretty big pool of tickets among the actuarial students (ie haven't finished alll exams yet) where I work. They were trying to get my colleague to go in, and it sparked a whole discussion on whether it's a positive expected payout or not. As my colleague is sitting there analyzing the whole thing everyone else is yelling at him, stop thinking about it so much, you're ruining it. I guess we know who the real actuaries are ;)
The problem is they are missing an important piece of the puzzle. How many tickets will be sold for this drawing.
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Offline myb821

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #55 on: March 29, 2012, 12:34:31 PM »
There's a group doing a pretty big pool of tickets among the actuarial students (ie haven't finished alll exams yet) where I work. They were trying to get my colleague to go in, and it sparked a whole discussion on whether it's a positive expected payout or not. As my colleague is sitting there analyzing the whole thing everyone else is yelling at him, stop thinking about it so much, you're ruining it. I guess we know who the real actuaries are ;)
lol

Offline myb821

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Offline HelpMe

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #57 on: March 29, 2012, 12:44:25 PM »
"Elvis Has Left The Building"

Offline myb821

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #58 on: March 29, 2012, 12:45:12 PM »
If it would just roll over two (maybe three) more times I would guess 1 billion!
i feellike every combination will be bought for this one lol

Offline Dan

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Re: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket?
« Reply #59 on: March 29, 2012, 12:45:59 PM »
i feellike every combination will be bought for this one lol
Definitely the vast majority will be bought I'd imagine.
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